Last time we combed through the offensive depth chart; on to the semi-detailed dive into the defensive depth chart!

Defensive Ends

Brandon Graham is about as good as he ever was; I had a chance to watch him in the one preseason practice that was open to the public and he looked as fast and powerful as before. This was backed up in the preseason games. I suspect he’ll be a Pro Bowler as long as he’s healthy and if so he’ll be a big boost to the defense. Josh Sweat remains an ascending player; that sounds like faint praise but don’t forget he got into the Pro Bowl conversation last year. Another move up will place him firmly in the “star” category, and don’t rule it out: he was third leaguewide in ESPN’s Pass Rush Win Rate last year (behind Myles Garrett and Robert Quinn). I already mentioned a few thoughts about Derek Barnett, but to reiterate, I think he’ll fit the role the team wants him to fill this year. Tarron Jackson is a player that this team has a plan for; I think we may see him as a starter in 2024. The biggest question at this spot going forward is if Brandon Graham will get an extension to stay in Philly beyond this season.

Defensive Tackles

I’m on record that this is the best collection of DT talent in the league. Milton Williams would likely be considered the “weakest” link, so let’s focus on him. His pressure frequency (see the Barnett writeup for details, but the formula is sacks + knockdowns + hurried / defensive snaps) as a rookie was 2.41%, which compares favorably to how Javon Hargrave did in him first year here (2.83%) and is better than Josh Sweat’s rookie season (1.52%). We all know he’s undersized, but take a deep dive into his spider chart and you’ll notice elite athleticism all across the board; the closest comps in that regard include Aaron Donald and Geno Atkins. I’m not at all suggesting that Williams is about to be a perennial All Pro, but I do think he can be an impact player. With Philly moving to more of a hybrid front, I think he’ll find a role as a 3-4 end, like Fletcher Cox did early in his career. Speaking of Cox, I think his contract situation plus the more rotational role he’ll be asked to play will significantly help his efficiency. Very curious to see what comes of Javon Hargrave this season, both on the field and with his contract year. Speaking of athletic freaks, check out Jordan Davis’s spider chart. Also check this out. To put that RAS score in context, Davis is in the 99th percentile of the 99th percentile of prospects in raw size/speed/strength/athleticism. The Birds chose to carry five tackles this year, the fifth being Marlon Tuipulotu, who apparently has made a substantial second year leap. They also kept Marvin Wilson on the PS; he’s had a remarkable career trajectory from potential top 15 pick (spring 2020) to being undrafted (spring 2021) to being waived (summer 2021) to being a resurgent player that some thought would make the 53.

Linebackers

TJ Edwards is in an odd spot; they gave him the green dot as a de facto defensive captain, but he has no contract after this season. He’s probably the best they have in a suddenly deep LB room. If that situation continues I suspect he’ll get an extension. Kyzir White absolutely stuffed the stat sheet last year; he was top 32 in the league in tackles, interceptions and forced fumbles. He was top ten in the league in missed tackle percentage (he’s a solid tackler, especially for his small size), and has coverage chops (#14 in passer rating as a target). All rankings are White’s ranks among off ball linebackers. Of course, the question mark remains: will he mesh with the new defense? Same goes for Hasson Reddick, who’s a high level pass rusher but likely won’t offer more than that. Reddick’s limitations likely apply to his backups Patrick and Kyron Johnson (I love Kyron’s potential; how many front seven players run a sub-4.4 40? Not many). The coaching staff lobbied for Shaun Bradley to make the Pro Bowl as a special teams guy after last season; he may not offer too much more than that (Kyron Johnson has ST chops as well). Everyone’s (including my own) favorite draft choice Nakobe Dean will likely be a rotational player early this season, but long term I think the only thing that keeps him from a big time career would be bad health. Two linebackers on the PS; Christian Elliss and Davion Taylor. They took completely different routes to get there; one was a forgettable UDFA, the other a top 100 pick. Both offer plus speed but little else at this point.

Corners / Safeties

I’m lumping these positions together because there are some notable similarities. Both groups have solid, maybe special starters, and really weak depth. Both groups have promising starters that are stepping into completely new roles. Three UDFAs from this spring made the 53; two are DBs. Darius Slay seems to have rebounded to the level he was at in Detroit; he’s the best we’ve had at the position since Asante Samuel. James Bradberry was solid in Carolina, great in Year 1 in New York and mediocre and injury prone last year. Which version shows up here? Avonte Maddox has found his role as the slot CB, and he’s as good as it gets there. Marcus Epps was a starting caliber player last year; if that trend continues he’ll be a fine starting safety. CJ Gardner-Johnson has the chops to be the SS; he was a consensus top 40 prospect at the position coming out of college. There will be an adjustment period, but if he stays healthy he’ll be up to speed by the all-important post-Thanksgiving stretch run. Coming off the bench, Reed Blankenship was a solid add as a UDFA in the spring that I believed had a shot at the 53. Unless another move is forthcoming, he’ll certainly be the first safety off the bench ahead of K’von Wallace, who frankly has been a huge disappointment and I’m not sure why he’s on the team. Back to Blankenship; how many players can match his college career stat line: 52 starts, 419 tackles, 26.5 TFLs, 28 passes defended (including 9 picks), three forced fumbles, two touchdowns. He also returned a few punts. He reminds me of TJ Edwards in that he’s not a special athlete but was just a solid and dependable player that can get the job done. Josiah Scott has CB/S versatility and Josh Jobe showed some real promise in the preseason. Both players came from schools known for developing DBs (Scott from Michigan St and Jobe from Alabama). Going into this preseason Zech McPhearson was the team’s choice for the first CB off the bench, but he has yet to seize that moment. If he’s going to get there, this season will be the best opportunity. Andre Chachere, Mario Goodrich and Mac McCain all made it to the PS; if any of them get to the 53 at some point it likely means a disaster has occurred.

Specialists

Jake Elliott was quietly one of the best kickers in the game last year. It’s not hard to create a “points scored above expectations” stat for kickers; simply multiply the leaguewide average FG success rate for each distance category against each kicker’s attempts for that category to figure the average expected points, then subtract those expected points scored from actual points scored. Elliott ranked #5 in this category last season (the runaway leader, as it usually is, was Justin Tucker). Arynn Siposs was not #5 in the NFL (or anywhere close) in any positive punting statistic last year. The only theory I’ve heard on why he’s still around is that the team values the continuity at the holder position. I have no idea how you would evaluate the long snapper position, but this fellow developed a creative and not-totally-illogical way to rank them, and Rich Lovato was ranked #8 last year. One of the guys ranked ahead of him is now retired, so I guess he’s up to #7, so that’s exciting!