We all do it, we all read articles that attempt it, we all love it, but we all know it's a waste of time. Of course, I'm referring to evaluating the upcoming schedule to forecast wins and losses.
Why is this so hard? So many reasons:
As we all know too well, injuries can have an unpredictable and disproportionate affect on the final record. Having an excellent training staff and good depth are about the only ways I can think of that will consistently minimize their impact.
As the NFL becomes increasingly driven by roster turnover, it will become increasingly difficult to predict, at least early on. It's impossible to project with confidence how any player will perform in a new setting (anyone remember Nnamdi Asomugha?). For 2022 I count six brand new Eagle starters (AJ Brown, Haason Reddick, Kyzir White, CJ Gardner-Johnson, Marcus Epps, James Bradberry). This does not count Isaac Seumalo, who is switching from the left to right side of the OL.
Every year a couple teams that were terrible the season before magically turn into playoff caliber teams. In the last ten years, 30 teams that “earned” top ten draft picks had winning records the following season. 24 of these teams made the playoffs. The Eagles have six games against such teams in 2022 (@Lions, Jaguars, @Texans, @Giants, @Bears, Giants). Historically speaking, there is an excellent chance that one or two of these games that most fans are penciling in as wins will be against playoff-caliber competition.
Conversely, every year there are playoff teams that slide back unexpectedly. From 2012-2021, 18 teams that had made the playoffs the previous season “earned” a top ten pick in the draft (14.8%). The Eagles have six games against 2021 playoff teams (@Cardinals, Cowboys, Steelers, Packers, Titans, @Cowboys). At least one of these teams is slated for a major step back in 2022.
The first few weeks of the season are particularly worthless in terms of being representative of the final standings, and are therefore more difficult to predict. It seems every year that a contender loses a couple early games and are buried by the media. Of course, each season some surprise team starts off red hot and gets everyone excited. Once January rolls around, this surprise team essentially disappears. In the last ten seasons, 12 different teams started 4-0 (or better) and failed to win a playoff game. Four of these teams missed the playoffs altogether.
Continuation of the previous point, every year there are completely unexpected results in the first couple weeks as team unveil new strategies and opponents don't know how to adjust. Perhaps the best example of this that I can think of is the 2008 Miami Dolphins Wildcat offense, which was a fun and effective highlight reel until suddenly it wasn't. A similar effect occurs with players in new settings (rookies, free agents) that are used in new ways.
In my humble opinion, when the gives a line of three points or fewer, they are effectively telling us that they don't have a good sense of the game; it's a toss up. Any games with a point spread of three or fewer carries a 50% win probability for each team. Games with a line of 3.5 to 7 points carry an approximate win likelihood of 75% for the favorite (and of course, 25% for the underdog), and lines exceeding a touchdown indicate a win likelihood of 90% (10% for the dog). Our question is, how does the Eagles schedule break down according to this system? Here's how I see it:
SOLID FAVORITES (90% win probability, 7 point line or higher)
Jaguars
@Texans
Titans
@Bears
Giants
FAVORITES (75% win probability, 3.5-7 point line)
Vikings
Steelers
Commanders
@Giants
Saints
TOSS UPS (50% win probability, within three points each way)
@Lions
@Commanders
@Cardinals
Cowboys
Packers
UNDERDOGS (25% win probability)
@Colts
@Cowboys
SOLID UNDERDOGS
None
We will dive into some of the reason I've broken the schedule down this way in a coming in depth look at the schedule, including what I imagine to be the most controversial prediction here (the Lions game as a Toss Up and not a favorite of some sort), but using this model to forecast the season would land Philly right in around 11 wins, with outer ranges at 10 to 13 wins. This is a very friendly schedule, and I think that fact contributes to the optimism as much as anything else. More to come!
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