My brother and I have gone to several of the recent Thanksgiving weekend Eagles games and were in attendance for this one; this game was easily the most exhausting and wrenching experience I've had in the Linc (including one of the 2017 playoff games). Not only did the game take an obvious toll, but the conditions were brutal (hovered around 40 with a consistent, swirling rain all game long). The fact that the game went to OT just added to the toll, and if all this was trying for the fans I can only imagine how the players felt. I watched the game live and watched the recording at home the next day; I read probably a dozen articles and caught a few podcasts and I STILL don't know what to make of what we saw, but let me offer a few thoughts in no particular order:
Eagle's clutch factor is practically infinite. You all know the figures, but just a review: this is Jalen's eighth straight win in which they trailed by ten or more points, this is the Birds fifth win this year in which they were outgained, this is the fourth straight win that required a halftime comeback... these factoids go on and on. Buffalo dominated this game (505-378 yardage, 29-24 FDs, 40-27 TOP) everywhere but the scoreboard. Having seen the game twice, I'm still not 100% sure how the Birds pulled it out, other than the fact that they just made the key plays that the Bills didn't. Philly nailed their clutch kicks, Buffalo missed two FGs (including a remarkable block by Jalen Carter); Buffalo was credited with three drops to Philly's one, but that seems to undersell how bad things were for Buffalo in that regard (Cook dropped a clear touchdown early and Bills WRs running the wrong route cost them at least one more score). We'll talk about the officiating shortly, but even adjusting for the questionable stuff, Buffalo was a lot worse in terms of penalties on Sunday. Buffalo won the turnover battle (2-1) and the battle for points off turnovers (10-7), but Philly's one interception-turned-touchdown came at a much more critical time. Sean McDermott's decision in the 4Q to not try to score with 20 seconds, one timeout and a red-hot Josh Allen was a head scratching moment that surprised me in real time; I was legitimately nervous about that potential but the Bills passed on it. Big time loser energy. Again, you can cite these anecdotes all day long but I think you get the idea.
Officiating was bad, and benefitted the Eagles... but didn't turn the game. I doubt any Bills fans are reading this, but in the off chance one of Bills Mafia broke in here... deep breaths, we'll get through this. Watching the recording, there were really four calls that were notably bad in favor of Philly; here's the breakdown:
Second quarter; Slay grabs the shoulder of the WR before the ball gets there. He doesn't reroute the player but that generally gets called as a DPI. Watching the replay I don't think the grab changed the outcome of the play, but assuming the flag gets thrown, Buffalo gets a first down near midfield (I think around the Eagles' 45). Any guarantee Buffalo scores? Maybe, but maybe not. Even if they did, Philly gets 2.5 quarters to adjust their strategy. This wasn't like the famous Bradberry call in the Super Bowl that effectively ended the game.
Still second quarter; the infamous no-call of a horse collar tackle on the intentional grounding play. I watched this replay closely, and I have to say that a flag for a horse collar on that play would have been tacky. That's a horse collar in a technical sense only. Reddick did have a grab of the back of the jersey (not the collar but the nameplate), but it wasn't at all clear and I have no trouble believing that the officials didn't see it. The jersey grab a) didn't affect the outcome of the play, b) didn't put Allen in any danger, and c) was really only a penalty in a technical sense. If your team needs that kind of gift call to be successful, you're not winning anything. By the way, absent of the horse collar, the call of intentional grounding was accurate and even had they called the horse collar the fouls would have offset.
Moving to overtime, plenty of Bills fans were howling over another missed PI on Slay during the Bills drive. It did look like a foul but it didn't matter; Buffalo got their first down on the next play. The final major point of contention was the AJ Brown drop/fumble, which I never once thought was a catch, either watching it live or watching the many replays. You can say it was close all you want, but frame it this way: had that play occurred in the end zone, and been called a touchdown, Bills fans would have been equally unhappy. Why? Because it wasn't a catch!
Don't forget too that Buffalo got a few calls. The tacky roughing call against Morrow in overtime has been clearly pointed out, but I noted an obvious hold on a Buffalo scoring drive in the 2Q where O'Cyrus Torrence had his giant arm wrapped around the defender's neck. This foul went uncalled.
Bottom line: if all of these plays had been called "properly", there's no guarantee whatsoever that the game's result is any different. It's also worth pointing out that the 2Q was the quarter particularly dominated by Buffalo; that's where they gained virtually all of their statistical edge, and it was the only period of the five (including OT) where they outscored Philly. Given that, one can hardly blame the officials for costing Buffalo any momentum.
Special teams were an underrated advantage for Philly. We all know about Jake Elliott's monster FG (maybe the biggest FG in a career full of them, and definitely the toughest). We already talked about Carter's blocked FG. We also know that Bass pushed a FG right in the second quarter. Even beyond all of those items, Philly dominated in the punt game as well, winning convincingly in both gross (53.8-42.8) and net punting (46.4-38.3). One way to neutralize big statistical deficits is to win on special teams and Philly pulled that out.
Two random statistical comments. Buffalo converted 14 third or fourth downs, a staggering number (for reference, a NFL team converts only six of these plays in an average game), and many of these were long distances. That absolutely must improve for Philly's defense. On the bright side, the Birds' red zone issues on offense seem to be a thing of the past; they went 4-for-4 on Sunday. Including these last three games (all against solid defenses, no less), Philly is a perfect 10-for-10 in red zone offense.
Eagles persevere through injuries. Our tailgating group was really bummed when the news broke that Lane Johnson wouldn't play; the potential to wreck the Eagles' offense with that injury was high (I've talked about this a lot, but historically Johnson's absence reducing Philly's chances to win by about a third). Add to it that Goedert is still out and Philly was missing arguably two of their three most important offensive players (and the third, Jalen, was still hobbled with his knee). Milton Williams didn't play as he was still in the concussion protocol. Further complicating things were in-game injuries to Fletcher Cox and Zach Cunningham. Those three defensive guys were three of the Eagles' best run defenders; Buffalo figured this out by the fourth quarter and began to run the ball down the Birds' throat; why they didn't lean on the run more in overtime is another mystery. Philly persevered through all of this. There's a chance that everyone I mentioned here will be available this coming weekend against SF; they'll be needed.
Outlook. On Monday's "Birds 365", Jody McDonald pointed out that even if the Eagles lose the next two games (49ers, @Cowboys), they'll win the division (no matter what else happens) if they win the other four games (@Seahawks, Giants, @Cardinals, @Giants) due to tiebreakers. I estimate a nearly 2-in-3 chance that Philly sweeps their final four (with Seattle really being the only real question mark), and if they get healthier they have a decent chance to steal one of these next two. Make no mistake, though: these next two weeks will likely be the toughest two week stretch of the season. Philly won't be able to afford to fall behind or have entire quarters where they go silent. The biggest moments of the season are upon us, stay tuned.
FLY EAGLES FLY!
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