Last season, I wrote this article after reading a nameless clown on a message board claim that Jalen Hurts was not an NFL QB, a statement* that was comical then and looks absurd now. In last year's piece, I ranked 37 quarterbacks that were either starters or likely to get starts. I've expanded the list a bit now. Here are a few housekeeping notes before we start:
*this year I saw (on the same board, no less) some Cowboys fan predicting regression for Hurts because “the tape is out on him now”, apparently forgetting that there was 20 starts worth of tape on Hurts going into last season and it did nothing to slow his progress. Dallas fans continue to amaze me.
These rankings are mostly built around my answer to the question, “Which QB would give a team a better chance of success in 2023?” This is why you'll find the list to be overly harsh on rookies or other players with minimal experience; many of them are players I think will eventually be good, but it's very hard to confidently project them to that level for this year. This is not a ranking based strictly on raw talent, nor on who will be better over the next five or ten years, but who I think will be good in THIS YEAR.
Last year I had published some work on a new QB stat that I called Total Yards per Play (TYP); I had done some preliminary work on an expanded version of that stat but the unfortunate collapse of Football Outsiders put an indefinite hold on that project. We'll have to use more traditional stats for now.
In last year's piece I proposed a three-tiered system for ranking and rating quarterbacks; Tier 3 guys were players that actively held their teams back, or were too young to be counted on to lift their teams with any consistency. Tier 2 guys were good enough to win with, but not consistently good enough to elevate their teams. Tier 1 players are able to rise above their supporting casts with consistency and will be the reason their teams are successful more often than not. It should go without saying, but most players have games, stretches of games or even whole seasons where they play in at least one all three tiers; no player is in any of the tiers 100% of the time. The tier I have placed them in is the tier into which they can most consistently and comfortably be projected.
On to the rankings!
TIER THREE (players that generally hold the team back)
52. Anthony Richardson, Colts (LY: college). I'm jumping right in with some player “hate”, sorry to say. Over the years, three main tests for college QB prospects have seemingly emerged: has the player started a lot of college games (i.e.. Does he have the requisite experience)? Is he an accurate passer, or at least is there a clear path to teaching him to be accurate? Did he elevate his team to wins and/or a level of play that they didn't have a chance at before? Most of the top shelf NFL quarterbacks have passed at least two of these tests as college prospects; Richardson isn't close on any. Players like Mike Vick and Vince Young were top five selections mostly based on their absurd physical gifts (and dazzling college careers), but neither of those guys were ready to make a big time impact for some time, and both guys were much farther along as passers than AR is. I'm not rooting against him, but I wouldn't bet on him either.
51. Will Levis, Titans (LY: college). I could copy and paste most of what I said about Richardson to Levis; he did make more starts in college, and as a lower pick who will sit behind a veteran, will not have the same pressure on him. Still, Levis has a LONG way to go as an NFL QB.
50. Joshua Dobbs, Cardinals (LY: NR). Not to be unnecessarily critical of this guy, but I really struggle to understand why Dobbs (who is on his seventh NFL team in six seasons), would get the call over Colt McCoy, who is superior in every conceivable way. The only thing that makes any sense is a shameless tank job by Arizona that will likely be the cause of an investigation at some point over the next few years.
49. CJ Stroud, Texans (LY: college). If given time and appropriate support, I think Stroud will be fine. He will take some time, though; at Ohio St. he did nothing but throw to superstar WRs against mostly overmatched college defenses. That situation rarely produces QBs that are ready to star right away.
48. Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers (LY: 29). I felt on draft night in 2018 that Mayfield was an overdraft and (sadly for him) was proven right. The fact that the Browns were apparently sold on him when they learned he yelled HEE HEE to his college teammates will never stop being funny.
47. Kyle Trask, Buccaneers (LY: NR). I think I was the only non-TB fan on the Trask bandwagon when he was drafted and I'm certain I remain alone out here, but I ask: what's not to like (as a prospect)? He was buried behind D'Eriq King in high school and Felipe Franks in college, but when he finally took over at Florida (coached by Eagles OC Brian Johnson), his career took off and he finished as a serious Heisman contender. Of course, he's had to wait out Tom Brady's career so far in Tampa. Maybe he isn't any good but we'll finally get a chance to see this year.
46. Mike White, Dolphins (LY: NR). With a starter as injury prone as Tua has been, you would think Miami would have sought a more proven backup. Nothing against White personally, but his career marks of a 2-5 record as a starter with more picks than touchdowns do not inspire confidence.
45. Cooper Rush, Cowboys (LY: 34). Rush's 5-0 start as a start finally was proven to be a little fraudulent against Philly that Sunday night in October, but there's nothing wrong with having a QB like this in your back pocket, especially when your starter has been banged up a lot over the last few years.
44. Sam Darnold, 49ers (LY: NR). Don't rule out a starting appearance for Darnold, who's already climbed the depth chart once during this preseason. The 49ers will be the latest team to see if the promise he showed at USC can still be realized.
43. Bailey Zappe, Patriots (LY: NR). There's a reason that Patriot fans wanted to see more of this kid; he outperformed Mac Jones in most conventional passing metrics (including winning percentage). That doesn't make him the better player, but there's a decent chance we'll see more of Zappe in the future. The really odd thing is that New England placed him on the practice squad; they must REALLY love Mac Jones.
42. Tyler Huntley, Ravens (LY: NR). This is likely the lowest ranking on a list like this you'll ever see for a player coming off a Pro Bowl* season. Of course, the Pro Bowl comes with an obvious asterisk as Huntley was basically the only warm body the Pro Bowl had access to after a host of injuries and declined invitations. What a comical story.
41. Taylor Heinicke, Falcons (LY: NR). Heinicke's story is a weird dichotomy between “cool overachiever” who's led some pretty bad teams to more wins than they'd normally get, and “total poser” who seems to only pick up wins by mistake. He'll likely pull off a few more of both in Atlanta.
40. Brian Hoyer, Raiders (LY: NR). Brian Hoyer will make a few more millions off a team who's fans hope and pray he doesn't have a big role for this year. In other words, this season will be exactly like the previous 14 in Hoyer's improbable career.
39. Jameis Winston, Saints (LY: 25). I noted last year that Winston had averaged 1.9 turnovers per game for his career. I think that's all we really need to say here.
38. Desmond Ridder, Falcons (LY: NR). Ridder has earned his NFL shot. I have no idea what else to say about him as I have no good sense of what will happen with this guy; we'll just see.
37. Trey Lance, Cowboys (LY: 31). This is Year 3 for Lance now, and it still feels like we look at him like a rookie. This will probably be Lance's last shot to show he belongs as a professional; at least he has the opportunity to develop without pressure as an emergency QB.
36. Bryce Young, Panthers (LY: college). Young impressed me in his first year as a starter at Alabama, especially in the final three games (two against Georgia's all-time defense and a third against Cincinnati's talented group) when he led two victories with a team that didn't possess the normal glut of offensive talent that Alabama usually has. He'll have his challenges making the adjustment to the NFL but I like his chances.
35. Jordan Love, Packers (LY: NR). Stop me if you've heard this story before: QB gets drafted late in the first round by the Packers, who have an entrenched starter in his mid-thirties. Young QB sits for three years, then takes over after vet QB forces his way out through a trade to the Jets. Anything sound familiar? The odds of that exact story happening once have got to be something like one in a million; what are the chances of it happening twice? If Part II plays out anything like Part I did, Love will be ranked much higher next year.
34. Davis Mills, Texans (LY: 36). Mills' stats don't look good at all, but who can blame him? He's been stuck on what's easily been the worst team in football over the past two seasons. I think we won't get our first true look at Mills until he leaves Houston. For now, we'll rank him here.
33. Jacoby Brissett, Commanders (LY: 26). Brissett is in the weird zone we've seen with several other players in this stratosphere; he's been a solid backup for his entire career but with little hope for anything more. If he ends up getting some work for Washington he should at least be able to keep things afloat. The situation will be worse if he has to save their season.
32. Sam Howell, Commanders (LY: NR). Howell was probably underdrafted; he definitely was better than several QBs taken ahead of him that year, and his start against Dallas at the end of last season gives hope that he'll play up to that billing.
31. Colt McCoy, free agent (LY: NR). McCoy has long been one of the top reserve quarterbacks in the league; at the risk of being repetitious, Arizona's release of him is likely the result of the tank job referenced above.
30. Kenny Pickett, Steelers (LY: NR). As a Penn St. fan, I've watched Pickett for several years while he was in college, and I can't pretend that I ever saw him as a pro QB while he was at Pitt; he really did nothing special until his fifth year. Good college player, not a top shelf pro prospect. Having said that, he played better as a rookie than I expected. The Steelers beat guys seem to really like him. This year will be the year to prove me completely wrong.
29. Marcus Mariota, Eagles (LY: 23). I may well be underselling Mariota here; his career did not pan out the way the league thought it would when he was the second overall draft choice eight years ago, but he's been a solid starter on the whole since he's been here. I've talked about this before, but to review: Mariota's career numbers, prorated over a normal season, would have ranked in the 16-24 range leaguewide last year. Should Hurts get injured again, he should be able to keep things going without a cataclysmic drop off.
28. Gardner Minshew, Colts (LY: NR). A lot of what I said about Mariota above could be repeated here; last season I made some more in depth comments to that point that still apply. Minshew is still a guy on the cusp of being a starting-caliber player.
27. Andy Dalton, Panthers (LY: NR). Andy Dalton has been a solid if unspectacular starter in this league for a long time. He's been relegated to backup / seatwarmer duty now, but certainly belongs toward the top of that group. Carolina is lucky to have him this year.
TIER TWO (players you can win with, but not because of)
26. Carson Wentz, free agent (LY: 19). It's difficult to remember another QB with such a rapid and spectacular fall from grace. Wentz was the #2 overall pick in 2016, a genuine MVP candidate in 2017 and signed a mega-deal in 2019. He'll be searching for his fourth team in the four-plus years since that contract. I think he's actually a candidate for the classic “so overrated he becomes underrated” designation by this point. Comparing Wentz's career numbers to those of Teddy Bridgewater (the next guy on this list, and a former free agent) yields a practical dead heat. Buried deep within the personal failures and turnover-happy mess of his on-field play is a solid caliber QB; all it will take to find that guy again will be some humility on Wentz's part, and the right team to invest in him as a reclamation project. Because there's a nonzero (however low) chance that Wentz could reclaim his All-Pro level of play, I can't rank him in Tier 3 but this ranking feels right.
25. Teddy Bridgewater, Dolphins (LY: NR). Where would you rank a 30 year old QB with four season's worth of starts (and a winning record), rock solid efficiency stats, and playoff and Pro Bowl experience? His injuries and lack of raw arm strength have justifiably hamstrung his value in league circles, but at a minimum he won't be a disaster coming off the bench for a playoff minded team, and that's the best you can say for a reserve QB.
24. Ryan Tannehill, Titans (LY: 21). I'm just going to copy and paste my take on Tannehill from last year, because nothing has really changed: “Tannehill’s spectacular 2019 season tends to artificially inflate his reputation, and he is following the great tradition of such luminaries as Josh Freeman, RG3, Nick Foles and Carson Wentz as quarterbacks who had a red hot season (or a portion thereof), and never got back to that level again.”
23. Kyler Murray, Cardinals (LY: 14). Murray gets dinged for his injury, in part, and also for his attitude, which seems a bit entitled. The coach who hand picked him as his starter is now gone, so Murray is quickly running out of time to prove he was worth the first overall pick.
22. Justin Fields, Bears (LY: 30). Fields has definitely and unfairly been undervalued since COVID messed up his junior season at OSU. He started to rehabilitate his image with an exciting effort last season, and the improvements that Chicago has made in his supporting cast give Fields the opportunity to make a real leap this fall.
21. Russell Wilson, Broncos (LY: 9). Wilson's fall from grace has been as shocking as it was rapid. He went from being a top shelf and highly coveted QB to being one more bad season from total irrelevance in a few months (August '22 to December '22). Russ will have this season to cook with his coach of choice; if that fails, his collapse will be the stuff of legend, even more so than Wentz's has been. Philly really dodged a bullet when he spurned them to join the Broncos. I imagine it's a choice he'd like to have back.
20. Brock Purdy, 49ers (LY: NR). We'll start to find out this season how much of Purdy's success last year was due to his own talent, or the supporting cast and the QB-friendly system; I'm guessing it's the latter. Shanahan has a long history of artificially inflating the stats and reputations of his quarterbacks (RG3, Cousins, Ryan and Garoppolo all come to mind).
19. Daniel Jones, Giants (LY: 27). I've long suspected that there was a capable QB hiding in Jones, one that was mostly squandered by the incompetence of his team. Now that the Giants seem to be in recovery, it's possible we'll see Jones' star continue to ascend. I'm taking a wait-and-see approach as Jones was partially the beneficiary of a very conservative offensive philosophy last year. He'll need to do more to make another leap in these rankings.
18. Geno Smith, Seahawks (LY: 33). Geno performed like a top ten QB last year and was one of the best stories of the season. Why isn't he ranked higher? Frankly, we have eight prior year of mediocre to terrible play from him that won't allow me to rank him any higher. Let's see him repeat the effort before we move him up.
17. Mac Jones, Patriots (LY: 17). Jones is like a PB&J; he's perfectly acceptable if you're desperate but not something you'd seek out if you have any choice at all. I maintain that Jones is the new Kirk Cousins; a perfectly fine, mildly above average QB that won't screw anything up for you but certainly isn't carrying you anywhere special on his own. By the way, that phrase applies to the next six guys on this list as well; they have collectively played 55 NFL seasons as starters and have won only 13 playoff games.
16. Derek Carr, Saints (LY: 16). Carr finally gets the chance to prove that his average career was mostly due to the Raiders and not himself. I'm skeptical but willing to watch and wait.
15. Jimmy Garoppolo, Raiders (LY: 18). Jimmy G keeps doing it; convincing teams that he's the missing piece to their Super Bowl puzzle. The 49ers thought they had it figured out and came close several times but just couldn't quite get there. The realization that they probably wouldn't get there with Garoppolo was the prompting for the disastrous Trey Lance trade. Once Brock Purdy duplicated Garoppolo's act as a rookie, it became obvious that Jimmy's days as a starter were numbered. Thankfully, his old buddy Josh McDaniels was there to provide another chance; just don't forget the last franchise QB McDaniels hand picked.
14. Kirk Cousins, Vikings (LY: 15). Cousins is a good quarterback and a good man. He's consistent, productive and tough with high character. The only problem is that his ceiling is unquestionably limited. I'll reiterate what I said about Cousins last year (just as true now as it was then): “His career stats as a passer are perfectly fine, but we all know in our hearts that any deep postseason run he’ll ever have will come on the back of a great defense.”
13. Dak Prescott, Cowboys (LY: 10). Dak has slowly been receding from “potential MVP” to “probably a top ten QB” to this current “good but not great” stratosphere. One of the guys on the NFC East Mixtape pointed out that Prescott's recession as an effective passer began with his injuries that slowly eroded his willingness/ability to run. Since that time he's struggled to be consistently elite. Time will tell how temporary this is, or if this downward trend continues.
12. Matthew Stafford, Rams (LY: 8). Behind Jared Goff? Sorry, but I can't bring myself to go higher than this when Stafford a) has weaker stats under McVay than Goff did, b) had weaker stats in Detroit than Goff has had so far, c) is tied for the league lead in picks per game (min. 24 starts) since he came to LA, d) leads the league in pick sixes since he came to LA, and e) has generally been a fraud as an NFL QB overall, at least relative to his reputation. The magical run to the championship two years ago has the whiff of a one time event.
11. Jared Goff, Lions (LY: 22). Facts about Jared Goff that may surprise you: Goff has a winning record in every season in which he played more than half of the games, except for his first year in Detroit. He has made three Pro Bowls. He started a Super Bowl. He led the league in Pro Football Reference's invaluable ANY/A stat in 2017. The only truly BAD year he has was as a rookie playing for Jeff Fisher (Where QB Careers Go To Die). As mentioned above, Goff has outperformed Stafford in every comparable situation they've found themselves in. Time will tell if these trends continue, but it's possible we'll be looking back on the Stafford-Goff swap as one of the more lopsided trades in recent NFL history; well, other than the Russell Wilson fiasco, anyway.
10. DeShaun Watson, Browns (LY: 24). Obviously this ranking is a complete projection, as Watson hasn't played a full season since 2020. Assuming he's healthy and another off the field bomb doesn't drop, Watson's floor is probably around this spot. The jury is still very much out on the Browns' major investment into him.
9. Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (LY: 13). Tua was one of the more difficult ranking tasks I had; on the one hand, his per-throw and per-game numbers from last year put him into elite company, top 5 at least. On the other hand, his injury history legitimately calls into question how well and how much longer he'll play at all. I think it's fair to wonder how much of a product he is of the Dolphins' elite offensive supporting cast. Tua may have the highest variance of any starting player on this list.
8. Lamar Jackson, Ravens (LY: 6). Jackson remains a tough evaluation; on the plus side he's arguably the most electric and explosive player at any level of the sport. On the negative side, he's still not a consistently elite passer and has become increasingly injury prone. On the plus side, he's a record setting former MVP. On the negative, he's giving off me-first vibes and really hasn't returned to that MVP form. He's won more than 70% of his regular season starts, but only one playoff game in the five postseasons he's been a starter. Ravens fans were increasingly turning against Jackson in the offseason as the contract drama wore on, but some of that is receding now that the deal was done. If he's able to stay healthy and focused, he will probably climb this list for next year, but those questions are just enough for me to keep him out of Tier 1 this year.
TIER ONE (players that can win games on their own, consistently)
7. Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (LY: 12). I'll freely admit that this ranking represents some projection on my part, but the facts are simple: Lawrence is easily one of the very best prospects at the position in the last decade (he's got top five upside on this list without question), and he's working with a guy who knows how to get the best out of the position. Would you bet against him taking another step this year?
6. Aaron Rodgers, Jets (LY: 1). Last year in this article I showered Aaron with praise. This year there are two significant questions that caused this drop: first, was the regression we saw from him last year a one year thing, or the inevitable ravages of age catching up to a 39 year old QB? (checking notes) Yeah, it's not looking good. You won't find any QB at this age that recovered from a slide like this (ironically, the closest historical comp I could find was Brett Favre in the year he left New York for Minnesota, but Favre's 2008 dip was not as significant as Rodgers' 2022 dip was). Second, does anyone think that Rodgers' mental state is as rock solid as it needs to be? I was asking this kind of question about Tom Brady at this point last year and those concerns proved to be well justified. Rodgers ranks this high because his recent pre-2022 peak was as elite as anyone else on this list, and until I'm sure he isn't coming back I can't drop him any farther than this.
5. Josh Allen, Bills (LY: 3). Is it possible we've already seen Josh Allen's peak? Like Carson Wentz in his prime, this guy seems like a boom-or-bust performer. We know what he looks like at his best; the problem I've seen the last few years is Allen's ability to go turnover supernova. Since he took over as a full time starter, his 92 total turnovers (picks + fumbles) leads the league. If things don't improve this year (or if the team comes up short in the postseason again), I think we'll start to see the narrative on Allen shift from “developmental success story” to “superstar who's not getting it done and quite frankly might be a little overrated”.
4. Justin Herbert, Chargers (LY: 4). Herbert gets the edge over Allen because, to be frank, he just takes care of the ball better. He led the league in PFF's Turnover Worthy Play % in both 2021 and 2022. His rookie season of 2020 he finished “only” fifth.
3. JALEN HURTS, EAGLES (LY: 11). The truth is, I've spent the months since the Super Bowl thinking about where our boy would rank in this year's column; I knew it would almost certainly be in the 3-6 range. In the end the debate for #3 came down to Hurts, Herbert and Allen. I went with Hurts because 1) he's the youngest and least experienced of the three, meaning his room for improvement is the greatest, and 2) he seems to combine the best traits of both while avoiding the flaws of either. Hurts is likely as good of a runner as Allen (certainly more productive), while demonstrating Herbert-like protection of the football since taking over as the starter. Even including Hurts' “rookie” season in 2021, his career pure passing numbers are as good (in some cases better) than the other two. Hurts' work ethic will generally serve as the tiebreaker in any close discussion, including here. Last year in this column (dated September 2022), I made the following comment: “I want to see Hurts in a couple scenarios before we anoint him as the Next Big Thing: 1) playing from behind in the second half, 2) playing a top shelf defense, 3) playing in the playoffs.” Hurts played in all of these situations at a high level at some point before the season ended, adding to the confidence that we've got our player. Now let's see if he can string elite seasons back to back; no Eagles QB has done this in nearly 20 years (McNabb).
2. Joe Burrow, Bengals (LY: 7). I had questions about Burrow at the start of last season, considering the slow start he got off to. I shouldn't have doubted; Burrow's ability to make adjustments and improve (both in game and over the season) is second to none. If the Bengals ever get their OL situation figured out, the Mahomes-Burrow rivalry (already looking like it will dominate the next dozen or so years the way the Brady-Manning rivalry did from 2001-2015) will ramp up yet again.
1. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (LY: 2). Quite simply, the Chiefs have no business owning any Super Bowl victories over the last few seasons. In the 2019 playoffs, they trailed by double digits in all three games but pulled it off (won all three by double digits, no less). I can't say how often that's happened but I can't imagine it's often. Last season, Mahomes lost his superstar WR and starting RT; some thought this would put a hitch in their offense but that never materialized. Going into the playoffs, the Chiefs did not profile as a team that should be a serious championship contender; a fact I talked about as the playoffs started and went into more depth on just before the Super Bowl. Didn't matter, the Chiefs rolled to a second championship in four years. Of course, this year the Chiefs swapped right tackles again and now must replace their longtime offensive coordinator. The smart money is on Mahomes to continue his level of play as if nothing has happened.
Final point: of the last 42 Super Bowl winners, 29 (69%) deployed a QB in Tier 1 (or its rough equivalent). That number is likely a little lower than most people would think, but makes sense (in case you're interested in my methodology, here's another link to last year's article). It's worth pointing out that Philly is the only NFC team with such a QB for this year, giving them an above-average shot at a Super Bowl return in 2023.
Comments