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A look at the NFC Championship Game.

Writer's picture: Luke SnavelyLuke Snavely

Updated: 4 days ago



I can't tell you that I ever imagined that we'd see Eagles-Commanders as the NFC title ticket. I had Washington pegged for five wins this year (one of the worst of a series of bad preseason projections) but the combination of savvy, high-floor veteran additions with one of the finest rookie seasons we've ever seen from Jayden Daniels propelled Washington to a playoff spot and back to back road playoff upsets. Let's examine the all-East matchup from a few key angles:


Nick Sirianni vs. Washington. Something that most of us have noticed by now is that Washington seems to play Philly really tough, no matter what the talent disparity might be. Philly's 48 wins over the last four years far exceeds Washington's 31 over that same timeframe, yet Philly's net PPG in this series over that time (3.88) is far less than their average in non-Washington games (5.43). That gap is hard to explain, other than the fact that some teams match up better than others. Here's the abridged history of the rock fights that this series has turned into:


12/21/21; Eagles 27, Commanders 17. Philly dominated this game everywhere but the scoreboard with a monster 519-237 yardage edge, but two badly timed turnovers (one on the Eagles' 21 that set up a Washington TD, another on the opponent's 22 that killed a scoring drive) kept things close. The Commanders jumped out to a 10-0 lead, making this one of many games that Jalen Hurts has won after trailing by double digits.


1/2/22; Eagles 20, Commanders 16. Another game in which Washington lead 10-0 in the first quarter, this game went the distance and was not decided until the Commanders were picked on the Eagles' 20 late in the fourth quarter.


9/25/22; Eagles 24, Commanders 8. Probably the easiest win Philly has had in this series in years, the Birds teed off on former teammate Carson Wentz to the tune of nine sacks. This was Haason Reddick's coming out party as an Eagle, and the game was not as close as the scoreboard made it appear.


11/14/22; Commanders 32, Eagles 21. The Commanders ended the Eagles undefeated season by domination possession (more than two to one in ball control) and winning the turnover battle 4-2. On top of being physically battered by the Commanders, insult was added to injury by multiple dicey officiating blunders.


10/1/23; Eagles 34, Commanders 31 (OT). In what has become a trend until lately, Philly grabbed a late lead and squandered it by allowing Washington to drive the length of the field in just one minute to force overtime. Luckily the Birds prevailed in the extra period, but the overall lackluster defensive effort built no confidence.


10/29/23; Eagles 34, Commanders 31. Four weeks later, the Birds made the trip to DC for the rematch and it was once again a nail biting shootout. For the third straight game in the series, the offense couldn't get off the field (with special criticism due to the secondary), and the Birds had to outscore Washington again to pick up the win.


11/14/24; Eagles 26, Commanders 18. Three missed kicks by Jake Elliott (two GFs and an XP) kept this game much closer than it needed to be. That, and Kellen Moore apparently forgetting that he had a mismatch in our running game until the second half, when Barkley took over. Washington was gifted three points through an atrocious PI call against DeJean, another eight points scored on the game's final meaningful play, and of course the seven points that Elliott took off the board. This was a route disguised as a nailbiter.


12/22/24: Commanders 36, Eagles 33. Much was made of the Commanders winning despite their five turnovers; not enough was made of the Eagles losing due to Jalen being knocked out on a perfectly clean hit made by a really great player who has no history of doing this at all, no sir. Don't forget either that the Eagles' tone-setter on defense was tossed out by the officials for reasons that remain mysterious (he was apparently upset that his helmet was knocked off by a punch to the face; you know, trivial issues). Lost in the Commanders' front running and the subsequent media response was the simple fact that, if Jalen played the whole game, the Birds win by double digits and maybe by several touchdowns. I went into that game with the feeling that we'd blow them out and it was trending that way early before the chaos was kicked off by Jalen's injury. No matter, Philly won the division and guaranteed that tomorrow's rubber match would take place in the Linc.


The bottom line of this seems to make two points: first, Philly has been the better team overall, but second, we should probably expect to be dialed in for the full 60 minutes of game time.


Results against common opponents. Thankfully, we have a lot of data points (12 games worth) due to how the NFL schedule works. Here's how the teams compared (number cited is net points in regulation):

OPPONENT

EAGLES

COMMANDERS

Bengals

+20

+5

Browns

+5

+21

Ravens

+5

-7

Steelers

+14

-1

Buccaneers

-17

-17

Falcons

-1

OT

Panthers

+6

+33

Saints

+3

+1

Cowboys (H)

+34

-8

Cowboys (A)

+28

+4

Giants (H)

+7

+3

Giants (A)

+25

+5

TOTAL RECORD

10-2

8-4

AVG PPG

+10.75

+3.25

Decided advantage: Philly.


How have these teams played in the stretch run? In both cases the answer is "well", but there are caveats. Washington is 7-1, but with just two wins by more than four points: a meaningless blasting of a failed Tennessee team, and their win just now against a Detroit team with literally half of its defense on the shelf*. The rest were wins over the awful Saints, Falcons and Cowboys (by a grand total of four points in regulation), their win over a clueless Tampa team in the Wild Card and of course their asterisk laden win over the Birds discussed above. Washington achieved a net scoring margin of +6.0 PPG over this stretch.


*We should discuss this much ballyhooed "upset" of the Lions briefly. Obviously, taking out a top seed in the playoffs will be noteworthy no matter what the context, but hanging 45 points on a team that was missing 13 of its top 22 defensive players can't reasonably be considered that surprising. Detroit's offense was healthy, to be sure, but also completely unchecked by Washington's defense. The Lions racked up 30 first downs and 521 yards of offense, stats that generally would result in victory.


Philly has racked up an 8-1 record over that time; their only wins by less than a TD were against the AFC favorites at the time (Baltimore), that odd Carolina game, their win over the Giants when the reserves played and the game against the Rams in a literal blizzard. The Birds were +9.0 PPG over that stretch.


Advantage: Birds.


Who's the better team? Most observers would struggle to favor Washington in any realistic comparison of the team's 53 man rosters, or of their starters. Beyond that simple but obvious point, you may recall the statistical analysis from my playoff preview, in which I compared 22 key statistical markers. Philly's average rank across all 22 was 9.05, far better than Washington's 13.23. Further, in the seven tests that showed promise of predicting who would win the Super Bowl, Philly passed all seven while the Commanders passed only three.


Obvious advantage: Eagles.


Who's the healthier team? Here is where the concern sets in for Birds fans, and if you're going to make an objective argument for a Commanders upset, this is where you'd hang your hat. The Commanders are nearly perfectly healthy (other than DT Daron Payne, who's just been ruled out for this game, and OG Sam Cosmi, who's just been ruled out for the rest of the season). The Birds, of course, are already missing Brandon Graham and Nakobe Dean, but the recent list of offensive injuries is deep and concerning (Jalen, AJ, Goedert, Mitchell and Jurgens will all play but it's very fair to wonder how much we'll get from any of them). I do think the Eagles DL will be able to exploit Cosmi's absence (he's likely the best OL they had), but a mediocre Washington defense will welcome the banged up Eagles offense. My hope is that the Eagles are more ready to improvise with their passing game than they were in the last game as it seems likely they'll need to once again.


Final analysis and pick. On paper, this game should not be close. Philly is the better team and has played better, both throughout the season and over the stretch run. As I've shown, the Birds are a few fluke plays and injuries from having beaten this team badly in both meetings this season. The injuries are a real concern, as is the tendency of the Birds to play down to Washington. On the flip side, this may well be the first time in the Sirianni era that the Commanders legitimately have the Eagles' full attention and respect, and the talent discrepancy is too much to ignore. Success in the playoffs is heavily dependent on winning the turnover battle (teams that lose that battle have not won one game so far in these playoffs), but Philly ranked 6th in turnover discrepancy this season while Washington came in at just 15th. Defense really matters in this series as well, and Philly has possibly the league's best stop unit. Give me the Birds (especially at home), in another closer-than-expected game; something like 27-23 sounds right. We'll see you at the Super Bowl, Kansas City (yes, I'm expecting a rematch/revenge game in two weeks).


FLY EAGLES FLY!

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