This is usually one of my favorite columns to write, mostly because of the (often faulty) narratives surrounding the quarterback position. So many internal biases go into these sorts of rankings (including my own), so I figured that one more opinion piece can't hurt. Unlike some, I'm going to take my lumps for past misses on these rankings; if a player was ranked in the 2022 or 2023 versions of this column, that ranking will be presented so you can track a) how the player is improving or devolving and b) how wrong I've been. A few notes on how this list will be formatted:
These rankings are mostly built around my answer to the question, “Which QB would give a team a better chance of success in 2024?” This is why you'll find the list to be overly harsh on rookies or other players with minimal experience; some of these are players I think will eventually be good, but it's very hard to confidently project them to that level for this year. This is not a ranking based strictly on raw talent, nor on who will be better over the next five or ten years, but who I think will be good in THIS YEAR.
I have generally used a three-tiered system for ranking and rating quarterbacks; Tier 3 guys were players that actively held their teams back, or are too young to be counted on to lift their teams with any consistency. Tier 2 guys were good enough to win with, but not consistently good enough to elevate their teams. Tier 1 players are able to rise above their supporting casts with consistency and will be the reason their teams are successful more often than not. To these I am adding Tier 4; these are players that probably won't (and really shouldn't) ever see the field. They are camp bodies or QB3 types that will more likely than not be out of football in a couple years. I am also adding a few sub-categories that I think will illustrate the ranking a little better. It should go without saying, but most players have games, stretches of games or even whole seasons where they play in at least one all four tiers; no player is in any of the tiers 100% of the time. The tier I have placed them in is the tier into which they can most consistently and comfortably be projected.
Not every QB in the league is listed; there are between 90-120 quarterbacks rostered on team's 53 man roster and practice squads. Most of these guys have never played an NFL down and probably won't ever play. Because of this obscurity it's nearly impossible to include that kind of player on this list. Also, not every player listed has commentary; if you happen to be a fan of a QB that I've said nothing about (good or bad), feel free to drop me a line and tell me what I SHOULD have said. Same goes if you have a disagreement about my assessments.
Projected week 1 starters will have asterisks* behind their names.
TIER FOUR (players that you hope and pray never have to start for your team)
Group A: these guys are on their way out; they'll only start a game in the event of catastrophic injury.
68. Skylar Thompson, Dolphins (LY and 2022: NR). The Dolphins somehow have enough faith in this guy to make him QB2 behind the ever fragile Tagovailoa. He's started three games, racked up a passer rating in the 50s with more than twice as many picks as touchdowns. Good luck, Miami!
67. Case Keenum, Texans (LY and 2022: NR). Something is fitting about Keenum playing the late stages of his career in the city in which he went to college. Keenum's 2017 season is the first example on this list of what I'll call the "Josh Freeman All Stars"; these are QBs that had one unbelievable season and never returned to that level again. Keenum was placed on season ending IR; it's possible we won't see him again.
66. Josh Dobbs, 49ers (LY: 50, 2022: NR). Dobbs' unique 2023 season justifiably got a lot of press, but don't lose sight of the fact that he was genuinely bad last year (29th in both passer rating and ANY/A out of 33 qualifiers).
65. P.J. Walker, Seahawks (LY and 2022: NR).
64. Trevor Siemian, free agent (LY and 2022: NR).
63. Tyson Bagent, Bears (LY: NR, 2022: college). Everyone loves this sort of underdog story, except Bears fans who are hoping and praying that they never have to see Bagent on the field ever again. Maybe Bagent can arm wrestle Caleb Williams for a spot on the top of the depth chart?
62. Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Browns (LY: NR, 2022: college).
61. Bailey Zappe, Chiefs (LY: 43, 2022: NR). Zappe has had his moments in Boston over the last couple years; that didn't stopped some from begging the team to dump him for a rookie. Now he's QB3 in Kansas City, probably an ideal spot for a player like this.
60. C.J. Beathard, Jaguars (LY and 2022: NR). The answer to the hilarious question: "Who would QB a team of NFL Iowa alums?" I'd forgotten that Beathard was still hanging around, but kudos to him: he's holding the clipboard for Trevor Lawrence.
59. Nick Mullens, Vikings (LY and 2022: NR).
58. Zach Wilson, Broncos (LY: NR, 2022: 32). This kid was legitimately in the conversation for the worst starting QB in the NFL over his three years in New York. As Birds fans we should be deeply grateful that their interest in Wilson before the 2021 draft fell through.
By the way, is the first of several Bronco QBs that will show up on this list in short order. Sean Payton is pulling a page out of Jon Gruden's playbook from late in Gruden's Tampa tenure; collecting as many QBs as possible in the desperate hope that one sticks. I'll let you judge if this phenomenon bodes well for Denver's 2024 hopes.
Group B: these are the career backups that probably deserve an NFL paycheck but likely not a starting job.
57. Easton Stick, Chargers (LY and 2022: NR). Carson Wentz's former backup at NDSU has had a rough go of it when called upon to play for the Chargers, but he's evidently a good clipboard guy, like Chase Daniel back in the day.
56. Jarrett Stidham, Broncos (LY and 2022: NR). If you're keeping score, this is Broncos QB no. 2 and we haven't even gotten to their presumed started yet.
55. Tommy DeVito, Giants (LY and 2022: NR). The Godfather was a fun story but a disaster of a QB last year. One wonders just how badly the toxic NYG offense played into that result. On a side note, who was the last Giants QB to really light it up? Kerry Collins? Phil Simms?
54. Aidan O'Connell, Raiders (LY: NR, 2022: college). The Raiders thought enough of O'Connell to hold off on a trade up to get a QB in April. The Raiders didn't think enough of O'Connell to give him a starter's job.
53. Taylor Heinicke, Chargers (LY: 41, 2022: NR). Heinicke was genuinely awful last year. His brief moment in the sun as the Commanders starter in 2022 is showing up as a flash in the pan. The Chargers became his second new team this year, when Atlanta dumped him after the preseason. If this commentary sounds like I'm overly bitter towards the kid, it's probably because I still feel the need for some vengeance for this pitiful poser moment.
52. Joe Flacco, Colts (LY: NR, 2022: 28). This guy (literally one of the league's worst full time starters in recent memory) is somehow still in the league. That's all I have to say.
51. Mitchell Trubisky, Bills (LY: NR, 2022: 37). The Bear's disastrous selection of this guy at 2nd overall forced them to overpay to get Justin Fields, who they then had to sell for 10 cents on the dollar to make way for Caleb Williams. We'll get to him soon enough, but Chicago needs to hope and pray that they've finally gotten it right, because they are still paying for taking Trubisky when and where they did.
50. Jacoby Brissett*, Patriots (LY: 33, 2022: 26). Brissett is back where he started in Boston. He's also the first entrant on this list that's showed up in each of the last two versions of this article. It's a little concerning for the Patriot's sake that it seems Brissett is the Day 1 starter for this team.
49. Jake Browning, Bengals (LY and 2022: NR). Browning's achievement of keeping a mediocre Bengals team afloat after Joe Burrow's injury might merit a higher rank than what I'm giving him here. At the least, he's promising enough to bear watching, but I do want to see more than seven starts to go farther.
48. Kenny Pickett, Eagles (LY: 30, 2022: NR). Philly has a LONG history of backup QBs coming off the bench in playoff years:
1995: Rodney Peete
1996: Ty Detmer
2002: AJ Feeley and Koy Detmer
2006: Jeff Garcia
2009: Kevin Kolb
2010: Mike Vick
2013: Nick Foles
2017: Nick Foles
2018: Nick Foles
2019: Josh McCown
2022: Gardner Minshew
If I were to rank the above players and throw Pickett in the mix, I don't think I'd rank Kenny any higher than 8th. I don't think the Eagles would be totally listless with Pickett as an emergency starter (he's better than the nightmare that was Mike McMahon in 2005), but I'd have sooner paid for Minshew to come back over trading for this guy.
47. Mason Rudolph, Titans (LY and 2022: NR). If you've been paying attention, you've noticed we're coming to the end of a list of experienced players that are destined to be career backups. Rudolph belongs near the top of that tier; you'd feel OK having him sitting on your bench but no team with aspirations to contend considers starting him.
46. Sam Darnold*, Vikings (LY: 44, 2022: NR). The unfortunate season ending injury to JJ McCarthy gives Darnold what is likely his final opportunity to prove he belongs. Considering he's either been a) buried on the bench or b) starting for horrible teams his entire career, I'm curious to see how this plays out. Next year, Darnold will either be higher on this list or on the very bottom.
TIER THREE (players that generally hold the team back)
Group C: the young guys who plan on climbing.
45. Drake Maye, Patriots (LY and 2022: college). It's been 23 years since the Patriots drafted a really dynamic QB (probably the best you could say they've done is Jimmy G). Maye has a lot of talent but needs refinement and it's fair to wonder how this plays out on a team with minimal offensive talent, a defensive head coach and impatient ownership.
44. Bo Nix*, Broncos (LY and 2022: college). This guy reminds me of Kenny Pickett; longtime college QB that underwhelmed on the whole until their super senior season, then was overdrafted. Sean Payton is pinning what's left of his career on Nix, so we'll see if it pays off for him.
43. Desmond Ridder, Cardinals (LY: 38, 2022: NR). I may have Ridder too high; I just don't believe he's gotten a fair shake as a starter so far. Arizona clearly felt differently; Ridder will have to earn his way back from the Cardinal's practice squad.
42. Anthony Richardson*, Colts (LY: 52, 2022: college). I was hard on Richardson in last year's column. It was unfortunate that his rookie season was cut so short, and I think we're still waiting to see what this guy can be. What I can say is that losing a full season of professional development can't be good for a guy that needed so much work.
41. Will Levis*, Titans (LY: 51, 2022: college). Levis got on the field as a rookie and had his moments, both good and bad. Statistically the bad outweighed the good, so there's work to do. Unfortunately, it looks like Levis has spent too much time developing revolting colognes in the offseason; hopefully that didn't take away from needed passing refinement.
40. Michael Penix Jr., Falcons (LY and 2022: college). I wrote last year that the three tests that seem to predict the most NFL success for college QBs are: 1) accuracy, 2) experience, 3) the ability to elevate the program. Penix has proven himself on all three. I think this kid has a bright future but I don't love using a top ten pick on a backup.
39. Bryce Young*, Panthers (LY: 36, 2022: college). I'm still a believer in Young but his rookie season was a disaster. I'm betting here that this occurred because of how terrible Carolina's offensive personnel was overall.
38. Caleb Williams*, Bears (LY and 2022: college). Williams is unquestionably talented but I wonder about the intangibles. If he pulls everything together he'll be 20 or 25 slots higher next year, but I think it's fair to take a wait-and-see approach. Despite the optimism of the Chicago beat, I don't believe the early returns have been conclusive in either direction.
37. Jaylen Daniels*, Commanders (LY and 2022: college). The case can easily be made that Daniels is coming off the finest single season that any college QB has ever played (if you like data and want some on this subject, click here, here, and here). Will that translate to NFL success? We'll see but the ability is unquestionably there.
Group D: starters turning into backups.
36. Drew Lock, Giants (LY and 2022: college). This guy (and the next two on this list) have identical profiles: midround draft picks that went to bad teams, predictably bombed out and (except for 34 below) have swapped teams. It's perfectly fair to wonder how they'll do under different circumstances. As far as Lock personally is concerned, his surroundings have noticeably devolved. Tough move.
35. Sam Howell, Seahawks (LY: 32, 2022: NR).
34. Davis Mills, Texans (LY: 34, 2022: 36). Mills finally has the monkey off his back of being the starter for a bad team. Now he'll be the unquestioned reserve for a good team.
33. Jameis Winston, Browns (LY: 39, 2022: 25). Winston's star is slowly fading, but he's in a good spot now; the reserve QB for a good team always has an outside shot at unexpected greatness (see Warner, Kurt and Foles, Nick).
32. Marcus Mariota, Commanders (LY: 29, 2022: 23). I'm probably the last NFL fan that believes Mariota could still be a starting QB. Clearly the league disagrees. Mariota gets a chance to mentor a talented young QB who profiles a lot like he did ten years ago.
31. Andy Dalton, Panthers (LY: 27, 2022: NR). A longtime solid, steady but unspectacular player who's settling in nicely as a second QB coach for Bryce Young.
30. Jimmy Garoppolo, Rams (LY: 15, 2022: 18). It seems that, for the first time in more than eight years, the league has recognized that Garoppolo isn't secretly an All Pro QB. His career has come full circle, from backup with no chance to start to... backup with no chance to start.
29. Mac Jones, Jaguars (LY: 17, 2022: 17). I probably gave Jones more of a pass than I should have (or wanted to) over the last couple years. I called Jones "the new Jimmy G" and it looks like that's where his career is heading. This guy just isn't that good, and being a solid QB2 is probably where his career settles.
28. Justin Fields, Steelers (LY: 22, 2022: 30). Last year this guy was the toast of Chicago, and was tabbed to lead them back to the playoffs and maybe sneak into the MVP race. This year, Pittsburgh traded peanuts for him to back up another failed veteran QB. Neither extreme is accurate, to my mind. Fields will get good coaching and as a projected backup, will have a lot of pressure fall off his shoulders.
27. Tyrod Taylor, Jets (LY and 2022: NR). Taylor's career is a fascinating study. On the one hand, his career stats (out of 101 QBs to start at least 32 games over the last 20 seasons, he's 49th in ANY/A and 36th in QBR) are as good or better than some other guys who will start Week 1 in 2024. On the other, he's never been quiiiiite good enough for any one team to pin their hopes on him. He's one of the league's premier backups and unlike Zach Wilson, should be able to keep the Jet's season afloat if Rodgers gets hurt again.
26. Carson Wentz, Chiefs (LY: 26, 2022: 19). I'm still holding out hope that this guy can make a comeback. Signing on with KC to learn from Andy Reid is probably the best move Wentz could have made if he wants a chance at rehabilitating his career. I think it's fair to say that he has the highest ceiling of any veteran QB sitting the bench this season. On the other hand, perhaps Wentz's 2017 season was the un-repeatable outlier and he's a full-fledged member of the Josh Freeman All Stars.
TIER TWO (players you can win with, but not because of)
25. Ryan Tannehill, free agent (LY: 24, 2022: 21). Speaking of the Josh Freeman All Stars, Tannehill's 2019 season belongs near the top of that list. We've finally crossed the line from "He's a top level starter, we just have to get him right!" to "He's not a bad QB but isn't meant to carry a team". By the way, that's no knock on Tannehill; a former college WR who's stuck in the league as a QB for a dozens seasons and is still top 30 on this list.
24. Baker Mayfield*, Buccaneers (LY: 48, 2022: 29). HEE HEE Mayfield is at his highest placement on this list, but I'm still not a believer. I watched quite a few TB games last season and they always seemed to be successful in spite of Mayfield and not because of him.
23. Geno Smith*, Seahawks (LY: 18, 2022: 33). Remember the list of 101 passers who've started 32 games or more over the last 20 seasons (see 27 above)? Smith ranks 60th on that list in ANY/A and 44th in QBR. He gets a bump here because he's been OK in Seattle, but one wonders what the loss of Pete Carroll might do to his prospects.
22. Gardner Minshew II*, Raiders (LY: 28, 2022: NR). If you've been reading my column over the last couple seasons you know that I like this guy. He seems to be able to keep things afloat even in poor situations (Jacksonville as a rookie and Indy last year). Referring once again to the top 101 list; he's in the 70th percentile of those passers.
21. Daniel Jones*, Giants (LY: 19, 2022: 27). This will be year 7 of the Daniel Jones Experience and I still don't have a good sense of who this guy is as a player. We know he's not a superstar but the Giants have been so awful on offense for so long that I'm not sure we can say he's terrible either. No matter what, this coming season is unlikely to provide much clarity.
20. Russell Wilson*, Steelers (LY: 21, 2022: 9). "Steelers country, let's ride." Am I doing it right? Wilson's counting stats under his preferred coach weren't bad last year, but he hasn't been a winner since he slipped out from under the Pete Carroll umbrella that (until this year) has protected Geno Smith. Somehow I don't think Mike Tomlin will give Wilson the leash he's accustomed to having.
Group E: the Kirk Cousins All Stars. These are players that have at one time or another been treated (and paid) like elite quarterbacks but aren't. These are players that have combined for 66 years of NFL service but have 13 playoff wins between them. These guys have combined for $1.29 BILLION (with another quarter billion or so coming in 2024) in career earnings and have one Super Bowl to show for it. To qualify for the Kirk Cousins All Stars, you need to have played at least four years, have moved on to your second contract, and have no good reason for why you've consistently failed to produce at an elite level or win big in the playoffs.
19. Deshaun Watson*, Browns (LY: 10, 2022: 24). Watson is probably down to his last chance to be thought of as an elite player. Last year's rank showed how much I believed in the possibility that he'd make his way back there but I was wrong. There's still an opportunity here but if he can't make it in 2024, with this rock solid roster no less, then he's probably toast.
18. Derek Carr*, Saints (LY: 16, 2022: 16). Carr is somehow still carrying the whiff of a difference making QB despite the fact that he's been effectively an average starter at the position for a decade now (Career W/L % of just 45% with no playoff wins? Only two career finishes in the top ten in passer rating?). He's productive enough that he belongs in the top 20 of a list like this, but no higher.
17. Kyler Murray*, Cardinals (LY: 23, 2022: 14). I had believed that Murray would make the year 2 ascension that so many elite athletes had before (Wentz in '17, Mahomes in '18, Jackson in '19), but that leap hasn't happened. Players this talented really shouldn't settle in this range but I think this is where we're heading with Murray.
16. Matthew Stafford*, Rams (LY: 12, 2022: 8). By any objective measure, Stafford has been a barely above average starter in this league. Everyone seems to give him bottomless credit for the Rams' Super Bowl win a few years ago, but it isn't remembered that 2021 is the only postseason in which Stafford has won a game in his 15 year career (again, one good postseason isn't necessarily enough to escape the Kirk Cousins All Stars). His career passer rating of 91 would have tied for 18th last season, and his career ANY/A of 6.39 would be 13th. Obviously competent but nothing to get excited about. If your argument that he's better than the 16th best QB in the NFL comes down to his one magical 4-0 run to a championship, just remember that Eli Manning and Joe Flacco have three such runs combined. Did those playoff runs make them top ten quarterbacks? The answer is "no", in case it's unclear.
15. Jared Goff*, Lions (LY: 11, 2022: 22). Let's compare Goff to the player I just ranked him above, and who he was dumped in favor of: who has the higher career passer rating? It's Goff. Who has the better rating while playing for Sean McVay? It's Goff. Who has the better rating playing for Detroit? Goff again, without the benefit of throwing to Megatron. Who's won more playoff games? Goff, in about half the seasons. Who has more Pro Bowls? Again, it's Goff in a career half as long. Jared Goff is better that Matthew Stafford, and that trade really rebuilt the Lions more than anything else.
14. Dak Prescott*, Cowboys (LY: 13, 2022: 10). Let's go back yet again to that list of 101 passers from the last 20 years. The only players with higher passer ratings than Prescott on that list are Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Mahomes, Brees, Russell Wilson and DeShaun Watson. Prescott is 7th over the last 20 seasons (!!!). His playoff failures* are obvious and so typical of Jerry's Cowboys; hence his placement down here.
*Dak has two playoff wins over his eight NFL seasons and five playoff appearances. Those wins came against two teams that combined to go just 18-15 (54.5%) in those two seasons, hardly an accomplishment. Among the 23 QBs that have started at least three playoff games since Dak came into the league, he's 13th in QBR and 14th in ANY/A. Nothing awful but nothing special, and a far cry from his regular season performance.
13. Kirk Cousins*, Falcons (LY: 14, 2022: 15). The founder of this grouping of passers, Cousins is the kind of player you sign if you want to give your organization a jolt and bring your offense to a base level of competence. He can do those things (he's one of four players to rank in the top ten of PFF's QB rankings in each of the last three years; we'll get to the other guys soon). What he can't do is significantly elevate a team (only one career playoff victory and just a 53.1% winning percentage as a starter).
I'm going to copy and paste the same comment I made about Kirk the last two years to summarize this entire section: “His career stats as a passer are perfectly fine, but we all know in our hearts that any deep postseason run he’ll ever have will come on the back of a great defense.”
Group F: Trevor Lawrence.
12. Trevor Lawrence*, Jaguars (LY: 7, 2022: 12). I admit to being a Lawrence fanboy, but he hasn't yet developed into the player that he was billed to be. I'm giving him a pass because of the Urban Meyer experience and because he's at least had a winning record since then (including a playoff win). He certainly isn't a disappointment yet, but now that he's got his second contract and is about to enter his fourth year as a starter, it's time to show out. If he doesn't, he's joining the Kirk Cousins All Stars next year.
Group G: good players, better supporting casts. Two players in this grouping; both have piled up otherworldy stats over the last couple years but are in ideal places for success.
11. Tua Tagovailoa*, Dolphins (LY: 9, 2022: 13). I've yet to see a Dolphins game in which I was convinced that Tua was the reason they were winning. Frankly, that's how it was back in his Alabama days as well. Nothing against the kid, and it sounds overly harsh to say that about a player I'm ranking 11th overall, but is it any wonder that Miami slow-walked his extension despite the fact that he's been arguably the most statistically successful QB in the league over the last two years?
10. Brock Purdy*, 49ers (LY: 20: 2022: NR). I'm not Purdy hater but to see how some of these 49er fans blow this guy up is remarkable ("he's better than Montana!"; sure). Purdy is notably bad when trailing (here's the early story on it from November and here's a 49er blog from two months later furthering the point); I recall how mediocre to bad he was for the one quarter they trailed in Philly last season. This kid is the ultimate frontrunner, which isn't as sharp of a criticism as it sounds, but let's be honest: if he had played last year in Carolina or New England, are we talking about him the same way? Didn't think so. Still, it's a good story, Purdy seems like an all time good guy and he has outplayed his draft slot to a ridiculous level. As the supporting cast in SF begins to erode, he'll have more chances to prove this narrative wrong.
Group H: breakout players from last year that need to do it one more time to move up.
9. Jordan Love*, Packers (LY: 35, 2022: NR). Love played arguably the greatest game in NFL postseason history against Dallas last season; he was one of the top QBs in the game over the last couple months of the year. I still want to see it happen for a full season to move Love higher than this but he's on the right track here.
8. C.J. Stroud*, Texans (LY: 49, 2022: college). No player improved his ranking more that Stroud and it isn't close. I fully admit to being wrong on how long it would take to get him up to speed; clearly he was as NFL ready as almost any QB in recent memory. The sophomore slump is the concern here; now that everyone knows he's coming, will he be as successful? If he is, he may well break into the top 5 next year.
TIER ONE / Group I (players that can win games on their own, consistently)
7. Aaron Rodgers*, Jets (LY: 6, 2022: 1). Here are the active players who have won both an MVP and a Super Bowl: Mahomes and Rodgers. That's the list. Rodgers' 12 year peak from 2010-2021 was arguably the best 12 year run a QB has ever had. HOWEVER, it's been nearly three years since we saw that guy. The trend of QBs who start to regress as they approach (and surpass) 40 is not positive (there are far more Peyton Manning in '15 and Brett Favre in '10 than Tom Brady in '22 stories). I'm leaving Rodgers in Tier 1 for old times' sake and until he proves otherwise, but the pressure's on him now to prove himself again.
6. Jalen Hurts*, Eagles (LY: 3, 2022: 11). In hindsight, last year's top three grade was too optimistic, and the collapse of last season does Jalen's reputation no favors. This guy still has a high floor (he joins Cousins, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen as the only players ranking in the top 10 in PFF's overall QB grades in each of the last three years). His ceiling is obvious; this is still the guy that outplayed Mahomes in the Super Bowl and racked up a league record (and almost unbelievable) EIGHT consecutive wins when trailing by 10+. All training camp reports have been optimistic, both in terms of improved accuracy and speed. Jalen and Purdy are the only players in the top 12 of this list that were not former first round picks.
5. Joe Burrow*, Bengals (LY: 2, 2022: 7). I love Burrow, but we're one more major injury away from the sentiment changing from "an elite player who gets banged up" to "a player who's bad health makes him unreliable". Two season ending injuries in four years is a disturbing trend if you're a Bengals fan. Burrow showed his absurd ceiling during the 2021 playoffs, and as mentioned above his floor is high as well.
4. Justin Herbert*, Chargers (LY: 4, 2022: 4). Herbert's obvious talent, elite production and the fact that he's been as good as anyone at avoiding turnovers provides the rationale for his consistent placement at this spot. Considering he's going from one of the worst coaches in recent memory (Brandon Staley) to noted QB builder Jim Harbaugh, we may see Herbert jump even higher this year. Based on how Harbaugh rehabilitated Alex Smith's career, it's possible we'll see a monster season from Herbert in 2024.
3. Lamar Jackson*, Ravens (LY: 8, 2022: 6). Is Jackson a game-defining player that will continue to revolutionize the NFL? Or is he a rich man's Dak Prescott (elite regular season player who folds in the playoffs)? Regular Season Lamar is a 2x MVP with a never-before-seen statline. Playoff Lamar has a 2-4 record with a terrible statline (31st among 39 QBs who have started and finished a playoff game over his six seasons in both QBR and ANY/A). His proven ceiling necessitates a high ranking here, and I'm probably sounding a lot more critical than what I actually believe, but Lamar really needs to make a playoff run soon to shake this reputation.
2. Josh Allen*, Bills (LY: 5, 2022: 3). Much of what was said about Jackson above can be echoed about Allen. I'm ranking him higher because of his superior passing (it isn't particularly close) and the fact that Buffalo is winning a lot of these games mostly due to Allen's presence. That's more rare than it's commonly believed for star QBs. Allen was 1st overall in PFF's QB rankings last year. The shame of it is that it seems that the supporting cast in Buffalo is being eroded around him just as he's reaching his full potential.
1. Patrick Mahomes*, Chiefs (LY: 1, 2022: 2). The top dog till someone proves otherwise. Three Super Bowls in five years (and six straight AFC title game appearances); five double digit comebacks in the playoffs including all three Super Bowls. The unanimous answer to the question "Who would you trade your QB for, no questions asked".
Mahomes is also the answer to the question "Who won a Super Bowl MVP that really belonged to Jalen Hurts?".
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