In a previous post we did a sprint through of the Eagles 2022 schedule; now let's go a little deeper and see if we can justify the prediction of an 11-6 record. NOTE: the point spread offered is merely a data-driven guess at the line, not necessarily how I would handicap the game. The “assessment” is probably more instructive.
WEEK 1: @Lions (initial assessment: Toss Up; point spread: +1). Contrary to some, I'm ambivalent about this matchup. On pure talent, the Eagles are the better team but the gap is perhaps not as large as it seems. Detroit has a top-5 offensive line, three solid running backs, some dangerous receivers led by an ascending star in TE TJ Hockenson. No one will confuse Jared Goff with a star QB, but at a minimum he's an experienced player (88 career starts). Defensively they have a few pieces but minimal depth. I'm a fan of Dan Campbell, and no matter what else you might say about him, his teams play really hard for him. There's also a concern that Philly's laid back approach to preseason practice will serve them poorly in preparation for the Lion's intensity. Detroit will be missing Jameson Williams, which is a break for the Birds. I think that the strategy from last year's opener (@ Falcons, where they kept things simple on offense and forced the Falcons to march incrementally down the field) will play best in this matchup. If you're predicting an Eagles rout, your best path is Philly jumping out to a substantial early lead and forcing Detroit to put the game in Goff's hands. If that doesn't happen, I think this game will go the distance.
WEEK 2: Vikings (Favorite, -4.5). Minnesota is switching up styles and coaching staffs, and may particularly have issues on defense as they're making the jump from a 4-3 to a 3-4. Getting a team so early in such a transition on their first road game is a notable situational advantage for Philly. I like them to win here, especially in their home opener in prime time.
WEEK 3: @Commanders (Toss Up, -1). Washington will be missing two key players in Chase Young and Brian Robinson for this game. Washington largely controlled this longtime rivalry until Dan Snyder took over. Since that happened, Philly has managed a 28-18 record against the Commanders. One fascinating trend I noticed, however, is that the series seems to be entirely dictated by how good the Eagles are. Check this out: in seasons that the Eagles finished with a losing record, the Commanders are 11-1 in this rivalry. In all other years, Philly has gone 27-7. If the Commanders were fully healthy, this game would make me more nervous, but as it stands I think Philly should be (slightly) favored.
WEEK 4: Jaguars (Solid Favorite, -11). Here's the first of the major homecomings slated for this season. I suspect Doug Pederson will get a positive welcome from the home fans, which is more than I can say for Carson Wentz. Jacksonville should be improved, perhaps substantially, but still is pretty far behind Philly in terms of total talent. A Jaguars upset is dependent on Trevor Lawrence hitting his considerable ceiling.
WEEK 5: @Cardinals (Toss Up, -1.5). Arizona has some offensive firepower, underrated defensive talent and is playing at home. Why am I not picking them to win? I'm not a big fan of Kliff Kingsbury as a head coach (how do you squander both Baker Mayfield and Patrick Mahomes at Texas Tech?). Kyler Murry is very talented but has been turnover prone so far in his NFL career. Arizona will also be without DeAndre Hopkins for this game. I realize I've been talking out of both sides of my mouth, which is why this game gets the toss up characterization. I have no firm idea what happens here.
WEEK 6: Cowboys (Toss Up, -2). Philly and Dallas are extremely close in overall talent level, or at least they were before Tyron Smith got hurt. Between that and the fact that this is a home game, I like the Birds as a slight favorite. A couple quick notes on the Eagles-Cowboys series: if you look at regular season games from 1995 onward (when the Cowboys ran Jimmy Johnson out the door and truly became Jerry's team), and exclude games where one team or the other rested their starters (there were four), the Eagles lead the series 26-24 with an average margin of victory of 2.4 PPG. The Cowboys have swept Philly five times in that stretch (excluding last season); the following year the Birds went a combined 6-3 against the 'Boys and won the division four times (Washington won the other). Suffice to say, history likes our chances to close the gap on Dallas pretty significantly.
WEEK 7: BYE. Pretty wide range of potential outcomes to this point, but the most likely result is a 4-2 mark.
WEEK 8: Steelers (Favorite, -5). Pittsburgh is unsettled at the QB position and is subpar on the offensive line. Still, their defense is really tough and it's hard to count out Mike Tomlin. I think Philly is the better team. Of course, they're playing at home and off a bye. The home team has won five straight in the Eagles-Steelers rivalry, by an average of 15 PPG.
WEEK 9: @Texans (Solid Favorite, -8.5). Houston has started on the right track with their rebuild, and will likely be a contender...by 2025. This year, it's hard to see them winning more than a few games. It's also hard to see Philly losing here. Note: the Birds have never lost to the Texans, 5-0 with an average +10.8 PPG margin.
WEEK 10: Commanders (Favorite, -6). We've beaten Washington three of the last four times at home. We'll see if we feel any differently about these teams by November, but as of now there's no reason to go against the Birds in this situation. Side note: how poorly will Carson Wentz be treated in his homecoming? I'm guessing “very”.
WEEK 11: @Colts (Underdog, +4). The Colts beat seems to think that Matt Ryan represents a significant upgrade over Carson Wentz. I'm skeptical of that, but it might not need to be true for the Colts to have a good year. There are not many flaws on this roster and Frank Reich has done a good job during his tenure there. This will be a gut check moment for the Birds, a la Seattle in 2017.
WEEK 12: Packers (Toss Up, +2). I've long been of the opinion, inspired by Philly's magical 2006 turnaround, that the NFL season really begins on Thanksgiving. If you're still in the hunt at this point, you have a shot. As far as this game goes, Aaron Rodgers is 5-1 vs. the Eagles, including 3-0 at the Linc. Matt LaFleur's regular season win percentage of .796 in his first three years is the best in any three year stretch of Packers football since Vince Lombardi went .845 in 1961-63. In my opinion Green Bay has a top five roster this year, so ordinarily I'd not like our chances but for reasons unknown I have a good feeling about this game at home in prime time.
WEEK 13: Titans (Solid Favorite, -7.5). Last year's Tennessee team found their way to twelve wins, but likely overperformed their true win total (closer to a nine or ten win team by SRS and even weaker by DVOA). From that foundation, they've subtracted AJ Brown, Julio Jones, David Quessenberry and Harold Landry. Ryan Tannehill is a QB that's good enough to win with but nothing more. Should Derrick Henry go down for a length of time, they'll struggle. Still, for whatever reason Philly has struggled against the Titans with a 1-5 overall record since they moved from Houston. I remember some very frustrating and somewhat unexpected defeats in that timeframe; 2010 and 2018 really stand out to me. That said, and perhaps against history, I like this matchup for us.
WEEK 14: @Giants (Favorite, -5). The Eagles continue to dominate the Giants. Even with Philly's losing record since the Super Bowl, they're 6-2 against the G-Men in that time frame. They're 31-16 since the turn of the century, 18-6 in the last 12 years and 9-3 since NY dumped Tom Coughlin. New York is easily the weakest team in this division, and getting to seven or eight wins should be considered a big success for them this year.
WEEK 15: @Bears (Solid Favorite, -8.5). Philadelphia has beaten Chicago five meetings in a row, with the last defeat coming in the Andy Reid era. The Bears remind me of the Texans in that they're in the early stages of what will likely be a long rebuild. Philly will be favored here, no matter what else happens this season.
WEEK 16: @Cowboys (Underdog, +4). I noticed one interesting trend that may pertain to this game: over the last eight seasons in which one of these two teams has won the division (2010, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021), the team that won the final game where the starters didn't rest was the team that won the division. This means that, unless one team or the other has clinched the division by now, or unless Washington or New York win this division, this week 16 game will be the de facto championship game. History indicates that home field advantage isn't a major factor in this series (remember the 50 game sample I mentioned earlier? The home team is a mediocre 27-23 in that stretch). December tends to favor depth in the NFL, and that's Philly. I mention these items as reasons for optimism, because on paper this looks like a tough matchup for the Birds. We'll certainly revisit it in a few months; much will look different by then.
WEEK 17: Saints (Favorite, -3.5). For whatever reason, Jalen Hurts loves playing these guys (he's 2-0 as a starter against NO; +7 PPG). What southern dome team wants to come into Philly on what's sure to be an icy New Year's Day and face those festive fans? I think there's a little “surprising bust” potential with this Saints team (new coach who didn't exactly inspire confidence at his last stop, Jameis Winston can go turnover supernova at any point, Alvin Kamara and Marcus Maye both with legal issues hanging over their heads, several other key starters either dealing with injury or getting long in the tooth, on and on). Philly will have the unique opportunity to help themselves in not only the standings but in the 2023 draft with a win here.
WEEK 18: Giants (Solid Favorite, -11). In the last 12 years, there have been thirteen Eagles games that met the following criteria: 1) were played in December, 2) were NFC East games, 3) one team was eliminated, the other was in playoff contention and 4) the starters didn't sit. This situation should apply here, and the good news is that the contending team went 11-2 with an average scoring margin of +8.9 PPG. It seems like a narrow field of criteria, and it is, but my takeaway is that the classic “late season divisional trap game” isn't as big of a threat as it sometimes appears.
A few final thoughts before I wrap up:
This schedule really is very accommodating. There are only three teams on it that right now I'd say have a better than 50-50 shot at the playoffs (Cowboys, Colts, Packers). A lot of bubble teams and Philly gets almost all of them at home (Vikings, Steelers, Titans, Saints).
The most likely divisional record by far is either 4-2 or 5-1; incidentally, 4-2 is the average Eagles record vs. the NFC East since it went to four teams. There's about a 10% chance of a 6-0 sweep. It's fair to point out that there's about a one-in-four chance of a 3-3 or worse record.
An 11-6 mark would likely fetch a division title; seeding would be anyone's guess beyond that but that result alone should be considered progress. The case could easily be made that Philly's new contending window opens now, but we should likely wait to make that call for a few weeks, till we see what's really going to happen. On paper, the 2023 season looks even more promising in that regard.
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