PREVIOUS 2023 PREVIEW ARTICLES
Last year in this piece I predicted a final record of 11-6; spoiler alert: I also think the 2023 season may play out that way. Hopefully I’m as wrong about that this year as last year! Let’s make some comments about this year’s slate of opponents. Two quick notes before we begin:
The point spread offered is merely a data-driven guess at the line, not necessarily how I would handicap the game. The “assessment” is probably more instructive.
When Vegas gives a line of three points or less, they are mostly saying “We have no conviction about this outcome”; I call these games Toss Ups as the game could realistically go either way. Lines from 3.5 points up to seven are more certain, something like a 75% win probability for the favorite. Lines above seven points indicate a Solid Favorite with something like a 90% win probability.
WEEK 1: @Patriots (initial assessment: Favorite; point spread: -4.5). The road team has won the last three matchups in this series, which is a point in Philly’s favor. I’m concerned about this game for two reasons: first, New England historically practices hard while the Eagles have taken the opposite approach in the preseason. That dynamic also existed last year against Detroit and it showed, nearly costing Philly that game. The Patriots will always be well-coached and tough in the trenches, meaning that they will have the ability to string this game along through all four quarters. Second, don’t rule out the emotional edge that the fans will have, as this is Brady’s jersey retirement game. The Birds will need to jump out of the gate in both halves strong and be willing to be sharp all game long.
WEEK 2: Vikings (Solid Favorite; -12.5). As any serious fan knows, Minnesota was basically a .500 team masquerading as a contender for most of last year, and it showed in the playoffs. Their team isn’t notably worse or better in the personnel department in 2023. If Big Play Slay shows up in this matchup the way he did against the Vikings last year, this should be a win for Philly.
WEEK 3: @Buccaneers (Toss Up; -3.0). Tampa has actually won four straight in this series, dating back to 2015. I specifically recall the 2018 matchup, in which the Eagles were clearly the better team but got sucker punched by “Fitzmagic”. I believe that Tampa Bay will be better than many are giving them credit for, but that’s not the same as saying that they’re going to be good. Philly will be favored here, but this game can’t necessarily be overlooked.
WEEK 4: Commanders (Solid Favorite, -9.0). This really should be a revenge game for last year’s debacle that ruined the perfect season. I’ll dig back up a statistic from last year that’s instructive: the series seems to be entirely dictated by how good the Eagles are. Check this out: over the past 24 years, in seasons that the Eagles finished with a losing record, the Commanders are 11-1 in this rivalry. In all other years, Philly has gone 28-8 (77.8%). Of course, one of those eight losses came last year. It has been a LONG time since I truly felt that Washington was our equal going into a season, and yet we seem to drop a game to them every year.
WEEK 5: @Rams (Favorite, -5.0). The bad news about Cooper Kupp hangs over this team like a harbinger of doom; a roster as absurdly top-heavy as LA’s really can’t be without their best offensive player for any length of time. This Rams team is REALLY young (14 of their 53 players are rookies, a staggering 26.4%). Still, the Rams have a really good HC and arguably the league’s best defensive player in Aaron Donald. If they stay healthy and if Stafford can recover the 2021 magic, there’s a path to contention here if you squint. I do like the Birds in this matchup as they’re definitely the better team and may have nearly as many fans at SoFi as the Rams will.
WEEK 6: @Jets (Toss Up; +1.0). Fun fact that you may already know: Philly has NEVER lost to the Jets. They are 12-0 (first meeting in 1973) with an average margin of victory of 11.4 PPG. Of course, it’s possible that this will be the best version of the Jets the Eagles have ever played. Seven of those previous twelve games were decided by eight points or fewer. If Aaron Rodgers is able to return to his pre-2022 level of play, this game will be tough for Philly. I don’t think that’s a serious concern at this point, though: no QB with his level of regression and age has ever returned to their previous level of play. Maybe Rodgers pulls it off, but he’d be the first to do it.
WEEK 7: Dolphins (Slight Favorite, -4.0). I do not have a good feeling about this game. Philly’s defensive backfield is well regarded, and deservedly so, but they do lack experienced coverage safeties and as we know, the starting corners are aging, which may make for a challenge against the speedy Miami offense. For some reason Philly has substantially underachieved against Miami in recent history; in each of the last four meeting the Dolphins have been one of the worst teams in the league (their collective record in these four seasons: 18-46, with three of the four coaches getting fired that year) and yet Philly only went 2-2 with an average score of 23-19. Gut punch losses in 2015 and 2019 really stick out in a painful way.. Who knows, maybe now that Miami is good again, the series will flip on its head?
WEEK 8: @Commanders (Slight Favorite, -4.0). Since we’ve already talked a little about the Eagles-Commanders series specifically, I want to say a word about the Eagles vs. the NFC East in general. My rule of thumb when it comes to picking these games is just to assume a split with Dallas (more on this in a second) and a 3-1 combined record against the Giants and Commanders. Since the NFC East went to four teams starting in 2002, Philly owns a 55-29 combined regular season record against New York and Washington, which works out to an average record of 2.62-1.38 per year. They have finished exactly 3-1 against these teams eight times, the most common record.
WEEK 9: Cowboys (Toss Up, -2.0). I’ve said for a couple years now that the modern era of the Eagles-Cowboys rivalry kicked off starting in 1995; this was the first year that both Jerry Jones and Jeffrey Lurie had full run of their teams for the full offseason. Starting with that year, the regular season series (excluding games where a team sat their starters) is led by Philly, 27-25 (average MOV is Philly +2.37). The home team is a pedestrian 29-23 (55.8%). As with last year, these teams are extremely close in terms of top-to-bottom talent, so projecting a split seems eminently reasonable.
WEEK 10: BYE. I have a strong sense about very few of these games, so the range of possible outcomes is pretty wide. I think a 6-3 record is the most likely scenario, but a win total a couple games higher (or lower) wouldn’t shock me.
WEEK 11: @Chiefs (Underdog, +5.0). Philly has faced Andy Reid four times since he was fired here; they’ve “achieved” an 0-4 mark with an average margin of defeat of 8 PPG. Last February’s Super Bowl was the closest loss in the series. It’s worth noting that this isn’t a Mahomes phenomenon either; Alex Smith beat the Eagles twice by 8.5 PPG, including the first loss of the 2017 season. I do expect this to be the best pass rush that Philly will have fielded, including the 2017 and 2022 groups, and assuming the field is in acceptable shape, that may swing things around in our favor.
WEEK 12: Bills (Toss Up, E). Since the Jim Kelly-led Bills broke up, the Eagles have taken four of five in this series, including the only game against Josh Allen (a 31-13 beatdown in 2019). I’m not sure if any of that counts for this game, considering this is likely the best version of the Bills the Eagles will have faced in 30 years. On the other hand, in my QB rankings column I alluded to the idea that Josh Allen may be nearly through his “ascending young developmental superstar” stage and is consequently entering the “hasn’t gotten it done when it matters and may be a little overrated” stage. It’s just possible that the Bills as a team are going through a similar transition. How many years can they look like the best team in football (at times) and yet disappear when it actually matters? Their playoff performance last season (barely getting by a Dolphins team playing their third string QB, then getting stomped at home by Cincinnati) was as disappointing as it was shocking. All of which to say, Buffalo has a lot of talent but this game at home on Thanksgiving Day weekend is one I like for Philly.
Side note: the NFL season really begins on Thanksgiving Day weekend; if you’re still in the hunt at this point anything is possible. The Eagles are just 4-5 on Thanksgiving Day weekend games since 2013, and the last five games have all been decided by seven points or less.
WEEK 13: 49ers (Toss Up, +0.5). This is likely the game that I’m looking forward to more than any other as of today. These are probably the two best teams in the NFC and their meeting in last year’s championship game was robbed of a little of its satisfaction due to the 49ers’ QB injuries. Of course, the incessant whining of their fans (and subsequent rule changes that their coaches pushed for) have reignited the bad blood between the teams. Philly is currently living rent-free in the heads of the 49ers players, and that rarely helps such a team. The Eagles have won three of four against Kyle Shanahan since he took over in SF. These are two tightly matched teams and this game should be a classic.
WEEK 14: @Cowboys (Toss Up, +3.0). In eight consecutive seasons in which one of these teams had won the division, the winner of the last game in which both teams played their starters had gone on to win the NFC East; last season was the first time that this did NOT hold up. These are (like SF above) two closely matched teams, and they are both heads and shoulders above the Giants and Commanders, so it seems reasonable to say that the division will come down to them again. Dallas and Philly have combined to win 16 of the last 22 division titles, a remarkable 73%. The Birds are contending with the Curse of the Defending NFC East Champion, which would seem to favor Dallas for the division title. As noted in the piece I linked to, the top issue that Philly needs to contend with is health. In three months we’ll have a much better sense of how this is going.
Side note: The Cowboys under Jerry's ownership have racked up a regular season win percentage of 54.95%; the Eagles under Lurie have won at a 55.69% clip.
WEEK 15: @Seahawks (Favorite, -4.0). Bad news first: Pete Carroll OWNS the Eagles, having won all seven of his matchups with them going back to 2011. That includes contests with every Eagles coach from Andy Reid onwards, games at home and on the road, and regular season and playoff meetings. Seattle handed Philly the worst loss of their Super Bowl season in 2017 (24-10), and overall have won these games by 10.6 PPG. Lumen Field has always been a tough place to play; Seattle owns a 114-55 (67.5%) regular season record there since it opened. Why, given all that, am I calling Philly the favorite? Frankly, I just think this version of the Seahawks is a little overrated. They are weak in the trenches (both offense and defense) and Geno Smith is pretty limited as a QB (his career passer rating and ANY/A would have ranked 26th and 24th last season, respectively). If you’re keeping track, that’s lackluster talent at the sport’s three most important positions. The Eagles, of course, are very strong in these areas.
WEEK 16: Giants (Solid Favorite, -9.0). The Eagles just continue to roll in this rivalry; here’s some snapshots of Philly’s record vs. the Giants:
Since the turn of the century: 34-16
Over the last 13 years: 21-6
Since NY fired Tom Coughlin: 12-3
During the mediocre run between Super Bowl seasons (Philly was only 31-33-1 during that time): 8-2
Even granted that the GMen have improved in a lot of ways recently, Philly is still heads and shoulders ahead of them, talent-wise. A sweep is no slam dunk but is the most likely scenario.
WEEK 17: Cardinals (Heavy Favorite, -19.0). Combine arguably the league’s worst roster with perhaps its weakest head coach (The Fraud Jonathan Gannon), add in that Arizona will be actively hoping to lose to boost draft position and the fact that Philly will probably still be hunting wins for playoff seeding, THEN factor in a festive New Year’s Eve Philly crowd, and it isn’t hard to see why this game draws the highest projected line of any on the schedule. No matter what else happens this year, as of now it’s difficult to imagine a realistic scenario in which Arizona is competitive in this game.
WEEK 18: @Giants (Favorite, -4.0). I’m going to dig out a tried-and-true favorite stat of mine that may well apply here: in the last 13 years, there have been fourteen regular season Eagles games that met the following criteria: 1) were played in December or January, 2) were NFC East games, 3) one team was eliminated, the other was in playoff contention and 4) the starters didn't sit. This situation may apply here, and the good news is that the contending team went 13-1 with an average scoring margin of +9.4 PPG. It seems like a narrow field of criteria, and it is, but my takeaway is that the classic “late season divisional trap game” isn't as big of a threat as it sometimes appears.
In summary, here’s how I’ve broken the schedule down:
SOLID/HEAVY FAVORITES (Eagles win probability approx. 90%)
Vikings
Commanders
Giants
Cardinals
FAVORITES (75%)
@Patriots
@Rams
Dolphins
@Commanders
@Seahawks
@Giants
TOSS UPS (50%)
@Buccaneers
@Jets
Cowboys
Bills
49ers
@Cowboys
UNDERDOGS (25%)
@Chiefs
If this analysis is reasonably accurate, you can probably bet on Philly winning eight of the top ten games. A 3-3 record among the 50-50 games is also reasonable. Even assuming they can’t upset Kansas City, that leaves the Birds with an 11-6 mark. There are good reasons to support such a record that go beyond the game-by-game analysis; I had mentioned in “The Curse of the Defending NFC East Champion” that the average decline in wins by a defending division champion was three wins, which would drop Philly to 11-6. Despite their 14-3 record, the statistical case* could also be made that Philly was really an eleven win team last year. Eleven wins probably does not sound particularly exciting, but at a minimum it should land Philly back in the playoffs, with a real shot at the division title. The NFC is weak enough that a return trip to the Super Bowl is not at all out of the question, and unlike last year, no one will be able to question the Eagles’ strength of schedule.
*It’s more than a little technical, but a combination of SRS and Bill James’ Pythagorean Win Expectation projected Philly (based on their points scored, points allowed and strength of schedule) to a W/L % of 64.58% in 2022, which would yield almost exactly 11 wins.
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