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In each of the last two years (here's the 2023 and 2022 versions of this article) I've predicted a final record of 11-6; last year the team shamefully backed into that exact record. This year I'm feeling more optimistic. Let’s make some comments about this year’s slate of opponents. Two quick notes before we begin:
The point spread offered is merely a data-driven guess at the scoring margin, not necessarily how I would handicap the game. The “assessment” is probably more instructive.
When Vegas gives a line of three points or less, they are mostly saying “We have no conviction about this outcome”; I call these games Toss Ups as the game could realistically go either way. Lines from 3.5 points up to seven are more certain, something like a 75% win probability for the favorite. Lines above seven points indicate a Solid Favorite with something like a 90% win probability.
I didn't go into detail, but I gave a thought or two about each NFL team in yesterday's piece; that might shed a little light on why I picked some of these games the way I did.
WEEK 1: Packers (initial assessment: toss up; point spread: -1). There's a lot of angst going through the Philly beat about this opener. To some extent, I get it (I did call for the Packers to win 12 games, after all). Green Bay should be a real contender this season but there's always the possibility that we're skipping steps with the Packers. Remember that, outside of the Cowboys no-show in the playoffs, this was a 9-9 team last season. Green Bay has won six of nine in this series but all six wins involved Aaron Rodgers starting and finishing the game; this matchup won't. As far as the Eagles "losing" a home game, Green Bay won't be any more at home than Philly will and the Eagles still have eight other home games, many concentrated in the critical late season stretch. Finally, if this game is as close as everyone (myself included) seems to think it will be, then you have to like Jalen's big game experience (15 conference titles games, CFB or NFL playoff games in his college and pro careers) over Love's (two such games total).
WEEK 2: Falcons (solid favorite, -13). I'm not a Falcons believer. They should be a good offensive team (especially in September, when offenses tend to do better), but the defense has lots of questions; you know this to be true when two August additions on the wrong side of 30 (Judon and Simmons, both in decline) are looked at as needle movers for Atlanta. This is the Eagles' home opener and they have lately feasted on Kirk Cousins.
WEEK 3: @Saints (solid favorite, -8). The strength of the Saints over the last few years was defense, but three of their best defensive players (Cameron Jordan, Demario Davis, Tyrann Mathieu) are 32 or older. You've also got questions on the OL, a declining Alvin Kamara and a coach/QB combo that inspires no confidence. Time was that a trip to NO was a loss you could write in pen; no longer. I'm likely not giving the Saints enough credit here, but at the same time I can't pick them to win this game.
WEEK 4: @Buccaneers (slight favorite, -3.5). I was on the Tampa bandwagon last season and they made me look smart, winning their division and putting Philly out of their misery in the playoffs. Tampa will be average (if I'm generous) on offense but should be pretty good on defense again.
WEEK 5: BYE. At this point, I think the most likely record by far is 3-1. All of these teams are at least good enough to give Philly a test but I wouldn't pick any of them to win straight up.
WEEK 6: Browns (favorite, -4.5). Philly has won five of six in this series since the Browns returned to the NFL. Of course, none of those Browns teams were as talented as this version is. If Cleveland can get even average QB play, they'll be one of the league's top teams. Getting them at home and off our bye gives Philly the edge.
WEEK 7: @Giants (solid favorite, -12). Last year's week 18 embarrassment takes a little of the shine off this section, where we normally bask in the glow of our domination of the Midgets. Still, no denying it, we own these guys, with a remarkable 33-17 record this century so far. They've swept us twice over that time (last time in 2005); we've swept them ELEVEN times this century.
Side note: the general trend with Philly and the NFC East is to call for a split with Dallas and a 3-1 record against Washington and New York combined; that's been the result in each of the last two seasons. Philly has gone 4-2 or better in the division every year but one since 2016.
WEEK 8: @Bengals (favorite, -5). Questions about Cincinnati abound; their once fearsome defense has lost some luster and in fact was one of the league's worst statistically last season. Joe Burrow is elite but hasn't stayed healthy, in part because the Bengals still haven't solve their OL problems. On the flip side, we haven't actually beaten this team since 2000 (three losses and two ties), and have never beaten them in Cincinnati.
WEEK 9: Jaguars (solid favorite, -9.5). Jacksonville is almost a perfectly average team on balance, and I just think Philly is unquestionably better, especially at home. We've also not lost to the Jaguars since 2006 (four straight wins).
WEEK 10: @Cowboys (toss up, pick 'em). The home team (playing their starters) has won nine in a row in this series, which is a bit of a switch from 2010s; the road team had dominated the series for a long time. Dallas won't be as good this year as they have been in the past (too many lost starters and key reserves, insufficient replacements for those players, too much drama) but they are still one of the most well rounded teams in the league and Jerryworld has been a pit for Philly lately (one win in eight years). This is one of two games that I wouldn't pick Philly outright to win, as of early September.
WEEK 11: Commanders (heavy favorite, -18). My model has only predicted one other such scoring margin before, which was last year's upset stinker to the Cardinals. That, plus the fact that the last three Philly-Washington games have all been rock fights tells me that we need to throw the book out for this game. That said, this Washington team, on paper at least, is not good at all. To get to .500, they'll need Jayden Daniels to land on the RG3-Stroud continuum of rookie QB performance.
WEEK 12: @Rams (favorite, -8). I think the media is overrating the Rams right now. I've long been a Stafford skeptic, but that aside, Cooper Kupp has been banged up and is on the wrong side of 30. Last year's rookie sensation Puka Nacua was a great story but quietly led the league in drops. The defense lost their best player (and perhaps the league's best player) in Aaron Donald and traded their top LB just last week. It's hard for me to see how this team is much better, and they've only been 15-19 over the last two seasons. Philly always travels well to LA, and owns a 3-1 record against Sean McVay. Philly also hasn't lost a regular season road game in which their starters played against the Rams since 1977 (six straight such wins).
Stretch run checkup: I've long said that the NFL season really begins on Thanksgiving weekend (Eagles fans learned this painfully last year). As usual, there's a pretty wide range of outcomes here but I believe the most likely record at this point to be 8-3. Game by game I haven't picked against the Birds once but there are enough tight games plus enough upset potential for a few losses.
WEEK 13: @Ravens (underdog, +4). Baltimore is likely the better team, is playing at home, and for whatever reason has just deviled Philly in the John Harbaugh era (won three of four). This will be the first Jalen Hurts-Lamar Jackson clash. These two usually play tight games; only one out of the six all time matchups were decided by more than five points (a 36-7 pounding the Eagles suffered in 2008).
WEEK 14: Panthers (heavy favorite, -19.5). Considering how that Cardinals game went last year (again, I felt as confident about that game as I do here), tread lightly. Still, Carolina may well be the worst team in the NFL this year and likely will have zero incentive to win by this stage of the season. Short of an Eagles train wreck, it's hard to see how the Panthers are even competitive in this one.
WEEK 15: Steelers (favorite, -8). I have a lot of respect for Pittsburgh, but they are still not of the Eagles' caliber. The home team has won six Keystone Bowls in a row, by 16.2 PPG.
WEEK 16: @Commanders (solid favorite, -12). Still not confident in a sweep unless we've shaken our tendency to play down to these guys. I didn't know this until I looked at it (and was surprised to learn it), but Washington has actually swept us six times starting in 2005. Philly is just 22-16 in this series over that time, despite probably being the more talented team in each of those years.
WEEK 17: Cowboys (favorite, -6). Nine of the last ten times that the Eagles or Cowboys have won the division, the winner of the final game in which the starters played was the team that prevailed. In short, if both teams are still in the hunt for the division at this point (December 29), this game will be critical and (historically speaking) decisive.
WEEK 18: Giants (heavy favorite, -18). I’m going to dig out a tried-and-true favorite stat of mine that may well apply here: in the last 14 years, there have been sixteen regular season Eagles games that met the following criteria: 1) were played in December or January, 2) were NFC East games, 3) one team was eliminated, the other was in playoff contention and 4) the starters didn't sit. This situation may apply here, and the good news is that the contending team went 14-2 with an average scoring margin of +7.7 PPG (yes, I'm including last season's Giants debacle in this stat). It seems like a narrow field of criteria, and it is, but my takeaway is that the classic “late season divisional trap game” isn't as big of a threat as it sometimes appears.
So what do we make of all this? I've believed since the schedule was released in May that the only two games on this schedule that really should concern us are the Baltimore and Dallas road trips. There are, of course, other tests (tonight most notably), but as of now I think Philly will be favored in every other game (Vegas currently has them favored in 14 of 17). My final projection of 13-4 factors in a few upsets, which are likely to happen, but on the whole I think this schedule sets up pretty well for the Birds.
Breaking it down another way:
As said above, the most common and likely record vs. the NFC East is 4-2.
I like them to go a combined 6-2 against the NFC South and AFC East (other than Baltimore, a game in which they'll be the dog but have a chance to win, they'll be favored in the other seven matchups).
That leaves just Green Bay in Brazil, Jacksonville at home and the Rams in LA. The Packers will be a challenge but Philly should win the other two.
One final breakdown: I count ten games (Falcons, @Saints, @Giants, Jaguars, Commanders, @Rams, Panthers, Steelers, @Commanders, Giants) in which Philly may be favored by more than a TD; in a vacuum the Eagles should win eight or nine of those. There are three more games (Browns, @Bengals, Cowboys) that I think they'll be favored but not as heavily; it's reasonable to say they'll go 2-1 in those games. There are three toss-ups (@Packers, @Buccaneers, @Cowboys) and one in which they'll be a clear underdog (@Ravens); if they split those four that adds up to twelve or thirteen wins.
How are you predicting the final record?
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