A few random thoughts on the 2024 Eagles at the quarter pole of the season:
Assessing Jalen Hurts. I think this assessment is actually pretty simple: Jalen has, on the whole, done fine, with the obvious, significant and glaring exception of ball protection. The case could be made that the single more important trait of a QB is the avoidance of turnovers (similarly, a strong turnover ratio is the single most predictive trait for successful NFL teams). Over his first three seasons, Jalen was a master at avoiding the crushing turnover (his 2021-23 leaguewide rankings in PFF's Turnover Worthy Play Percentage stat among players with at least 350 dropbacks: 16th, 2nd, 6th). As we know, that trait has significantly regressed during 24 campaign (he's 28th out of 28 qualifiers in TWP% so far). Is the current recklessness more of a blip or trend? Was the mistake averse Jalen we saw earlier just a mirage? I'd argue that answering this question is the single biggest storyline for the rest of this season. If Jalen can't get it figured out, the search for his replacement may begin as soon as this offseason; a quarter billion is too much to pay for a player this turnover prone. That said, my bet is that this is more blip than trend. Going back once again to the TWP stat; Jalen’s 11 through the first four games is easily the highest in any four game stretch of his whole career (previous high: 7 in 2021). I don’t believe that Jalen has totally forgotten how to play, and I think the rest of this season will trend closer to the rest of his career’s baseline. This needs to be watched.
Assessing Nick Sirianni. The complaints we've tended to focus on seem to center around two main camps: 1) odd 4th down decisions and 2) the seeming lack of preparation for the Tampa game. On the first count, I think there's some improvement to be made there but not all of the decisions have been awful (I wrote a bit about the 4th and 4 decision in the Atlanta game being defensible, for instance). I can also give a little bit of a pass on the Tampa game; there's no realistic way to prepare a team from Pennsylvania to play in 107 degree heat indexes. Once they got down a couple scores, the game conditions largely took over. The Bucs also had situational emotional advantages (they were coming off an embarrassing loss to Denver and had just survived that hurricane). My biggest complaint about this coaching staff as a whole is the philosophies that continue to plague this group, especially on defense. We've seen enough of the soft zone pass coverage and the inability to manufacture a pass rush. These are both symptomatic of the "prevent the big play at all costs" mandate which is fundamentally flawed. Defenses are not good because they prevent big plays; they prevent big plays because they are good. The bend-don't-break philosophy of defense only really works if the opposing offense is incompetent, mistake prone or has a lousy QB. A capable offense will pick it apart, as we've seen time and time again. I don't know if Nick survives this season, but either way I think (and hope) that this garbage philosophy will be out the door next year.
On Philly's 2-2 start. I had predicted a 3-1 start for the Birds, but the unexpected competence of Atlanta and New Orleans pushed that back a bit. Philly is a 2-2 team that has played like a 2-2 team. It's hard to get too bent over this record, meaning that I don't think they deserved a significantly better (or worse) mark based on their play. I think they earned the split over their first two games (both were basically coin flips), and they definitely deserved to beat the Saints and lose to Tampa. What's being lost in this discussion a bit is the fact that the Eagles have faced one of the NFL's toughest schedules so far (the schedule rank by several data-driven aggregators: 1st by SRS, 1st by Massey, 12th by Sagarin, 5th by FPI). The Eagles have been outscored by this tough schedule but are nearly a dead heat in terms of yardage (gained 1,462 yards and allowed 1,463 yards). Being competitive against the league's toughest slate is why the systems listed above give Philly an average overall ranking of 10th, despite their record. If you had told me a month ago that the Birds would be at that level despite Lane Johnson, AJ Brown, Devonta Smith and Mekhi Becton combining to miss most or all of seven games in total, I'd have been OK with it. Looking forward, we'll have all of those guys at full strength, plus we should be incorporating Cooper DeJean and Sydney Brown over the next couple weeks, which can only help our defense.
Looking ahead at the schedule. The next four games (Browns, @Giants, @Bengals, Jaguars) should see Philly strongly favored. None of those teams look good at all through five weeks. Back to back division games against Dallas and Washington follow (we'll talk about Washington in a minute). The stretch run includes three more games against garbage teams (@Rams, Panthers, Giants). Even if turnover and injury luck do not improve, it's hard to see Philly not finish with a winning record. If they do get some improvement in those areas, I think their floor is about eleven wins, which is likely enough to win the NFC East.
Should we worry about the Commanders? Few teams have pleasantly surprised their fans as much as Washington has over these first five weeks. The Commanders lead the division and have won four straight. I'm tempering my concern for the primary reason that none of the teams Washington has beaten are really any good (Giants, Cardinals, Bengals, Browns). The Commanders got stomped by the one good team they played (Tampa). They do get Baltimore this weekend, and if they're competitive in that game it will show us something. Even if not, I think Washington may be as strong as 7-3 or 8-2 when we play them, making that matchup must-see TV. My preseason prediction of a 4-2 record against divisional opponents is still the most likely result, in my opinion.
FLY EAGLES FLY!
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