A few bye week musings, in no particular order:
Ordinarily I’d have written an article comparing our 6-0 start to the other Eagles teams that had started 6-0, but I realized I’ve already done that, as the only other Eagles team in their modern era to start this well was the 2004 squad. I thought it might be instructive to say a few words about the only team I could find that started 6-0 but missed the playoffs (and would have done so under the current seven team format): the 2009 Broncos. That group arguably got off to an even better start than this Philly crew did (four of Denver’s six wins came against eventual playoff teams, and by an average of 11.2 PPG), but fell apart with eight losses in their final ten games. Perhaps ominously, they also had a bye week after six weeks. What made the difference? The thing that jumps off the page the most is turnover rate. In those first six games the Broncos turned the ball over four times (0.66 TO/game); that rate nearly tripled after their bye, up to 1.8 TO/game. They also lost their solid starting RT (Ryan Harris) after seven games. We knew going into the season that turnover avoidance was likely to be a strength of this Eagles team, and that’s proven to be true. Continuing as they’ve started will likely be critical to avoiding any collapse. Keeping RT Lane Johnson healthy will likely be important too.
Philly is apparently an eleven point favorite this weekend against Pittsburgh. If you read my preseason thoughts you know that I do like the Birds in this game, but this matchup will likely be closer than that. Pittsburgh generally seems to be able to make games close and ugly (five of their seven games decided by six points or fewer), even with the offensive limitations and the defensive injuries. The possibility of a bye week letdown for the Eagles can’t be completely ignored either (they’ve spent the last two weeks hearing about how good they are, human nature often makes players vulnerable in that situation). All of that being said, I’m not going to pick against the Eagles in this game, but I do expect a tough and close contest.
I think Robert Quinn is a good, but not great, addition to the pass rush. He’s generated a QB pressure on only seven of his 304 defensive snaps so far, a rate of 2.3%. For reference, Josh Sweat has generated pressure on 4.8% of his snaps so far this season. Quinn had a pressure rate of 4.5% in his Pro Bowl season last year. The counter to this might be that the Bears have been blitzing him less thus far; PFR only has one recorded blitz through seven games (0.33%). He blitzed 3.05% last year, so perhaps the dropoff is partially due to usage. Chicago is apparently picking up most of Quinn’s 2022 salary (NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported that Philly will only pay the veteran’s minimum to Quinn this year, and Over the Cap pins down his cap number at a mere $684K), which makes the 4th round pick price tag make much more sense. If it does turn out that a higher blitz rate (not to mention being part of a deeper and more talented rotation) can bring his production closer to his Pro Bowl ceiling, then this trade is a solid win.
I think there are things that Philly can improve on, but this start is legitimate. Philly not only has the league’s best record, but is second in net points and net yards, and third in net plays and net first downs. They are second in SRS and DVOA. Even ESPN’s moronic FPI is finally on board (Philly is third there). Of course, the Birds are first by a mile in net turnovers. Just a note; Buffalo is first in virtually all of these measures.
What are the strengths of this team? It’s hard to not start this list with the line play, on both sides of the ball. Most agree that the Eagles boast the NFL’s best OL. You only have to look at the Dallas game, where all five starters were banged up in one way or another and they STILL produced, to see evidence. The second string, when called on, has been solid to outstanding (Driscoll, Opeta, Jurgens all have answered the bell). We may not even need Andre Dillard when he returns; look for a possible trade to follow. On the defensive side, we’ve already pointed out that the team has five tackles they like. Now that Quinn is in the fold, they’ll go four deep at defensive end (if you count Reddick there). Elsewhere, the play of the starting corners has exceeded the relatively high preseason expectations; we could see both Slay and Bradbery on the All Pro team. Maddox, when healthy, has been solid. The defense has played well despite still integrating two of their key additions (Nakobe Dean and CJGJ).
On offense, Jalen Hurts has demonstrated meaningful improvement. I estimate his TYP to be 6.80 as of right now, which would have placed him immediately behind Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson last season. I do expect that number to improve as long as he continues to avoid turnovers, something he’s done very well during his career. Philly has four players (Brown, Smith, Goedert, Sanders) on pace to gain a thousand yards from scrimmage. It’s notable that these guys play all three positions (WR, TE, RB), meaning that teams have a dilemma in deciding which corner of the field to cover. Brown has been especially notable, and has largely been everything the team hoped he’d be, especially after the catch. I’ve taken notice that the team likes to use him in motion, especially to draw the defenses’ attention. Of course, they used motion to set up passes to him several times against Dallas.
We should, if we’re going to be fair, discuss the weaknesses of this team. Start with the special teams, which (outside of Jake Elliott and Cam Dicker) have largely been a disaster. Their coverage units have been weak, their return game has been weaker and Siposs has had only one really good game that I recall. Much has been made of their late game struggles but there seems to be something to that; they’ve been outscored by 29 points in the fourth quarter through six games. It’s not as simple as “Philly has had a dominant first half and coasted after halftime”; only the eight points that Washington scored in the 4Q could truly be said to come after the game was over. I do think that depth is a concern at a few positions; should Dallas Goedert or any of the starting corners or safeties go down, there are no really good options that I’d want to ride with for the rest of the season. If there are any more trades to come, it would shock me if they don’t address some of these positions.
The question floating around the Philly beat right now is, where will the first loss come from? I definitely think that Philly is going to lose a game somewhere. It’s equally fair to say that there are no remaining games that we’d say the Birds are going to be underdogs in, as of now. The road trip to Dallas is as close as it comes to that but unless Philly sustains significant injuries between now and then, I think they’ll be favored. The Packers looked on paper to be the toughest opponent in the preseason, but they look lost as of now. Tennessee is mediocre, exactly where I pegged them in August. Those Giants games look much more interesting now but I’m not sold on them as a legitimate contender (all six wins by eight points or less? Still something to prove, in my opinion). As I’ve said before, that first loss could come on Sunday, despite the situational advantages the Birds have. The bottom line: whenever the Eagles end up losing, it’s likely going to feel like a surprise.
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