You may remember that we compared this current roster with the 2017 preseason Eagles roster, while saving a specific comp of Jalen Hurts vs. Carson Wentz for the future. Well, the future is now.
I want to start off this discussion with a warning: this may get lengthy and technical. Perhaps skip ahead a couple paragraphs if you don't care much for math and statistics.
I'm going to introduce you to a new, made-up (by me) statistic for quarterbacks. We'll explain it step by step:
One of my favorite QB statistics has always been yards per attempt. That's pretty self explanatory (total passing yards divided by total pass attempts).
Another favorite is the old touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Pro Football Reference has a stat that incorporates both of these measures into one reference point; it's called AY/A, or adjusted yards per passing attempt. Essentially it adds 20 “yards” gained per passing touchdown and subtracts 45 “yards” per interception, to reflect a quarterbacks decision making.
PFR went a couple steps further to arrive at their ANY/A stat. This adjustment deducts one “yard” for every yard lost due to sacks, and adds a sack as a pass “attempt” to account for how well a QB handles the pass rush.
I realized that, as good as ANY/A is for a quick and relatively easy to understand QB measuring stick, it fails to capture a few key stats I felt should be considered: 1) I really want to include PFF's excellent Adjusted Interceptions (AI) metric (to save time, here's a link to their methodology for AI), 2) no accounting is given for any rushing statistics, 3) no accounting is made for drops, fumbles or penalties.
If you wish to take PFR's ANY/A a couple steps farther, do the following: 1) take the Adjusted Interception (AI) stat instead of the base interception stat and instead of deducting 45 “yards”, deduct 33.75 (because historically only about 75% of Adjusted Interceptions actually turn into an interception; 45 x .75 = 33.75), 2) do a similar adjustment for fumbles (take away 22.5 “yards” per fumble as roughly one half of fumbles are recovered by the defense; 45 x .5 = 22.5), 3) add one “yard” for every rushing yard gained and 20 “yards” for every rushing TD, 4) add back the QB's yards lost for each receiver drop, 5) remove one “yard” for each yard the QB cost his team in delay of game, false start, or intentional grounding penalties, and add each penalty to the “attempts” count.
If you're still following this, and haven't fallen asleep, here's the formula: (yards gained passing + yards gained rushing + 20 “yards” per passing/rushing TD – 33.75 “yards” per AI – 22.5 “yards” per fumble – yards lost through sacks/penalties + yards lost through passes dropped by receivers) / (passing attempts + rushing attempts + sacks + penalties).
The general theory, which you may have picked up on if you're still with me, is to approximate how much value a QB adds to (or subtracts from) his offense every time he touches the ball. There's a lot of data involved; fortunately the internet has all this data on various databases, so it isn't particularly difficult to pull together.
This stat, like more oblique modern QB measures like passer rating and Total QBR, measures more of the nuances of quarterback performance. Unlike those metrics, the formula is more intuitive and somewhat easier to understand.
If you're curious, the 2021 league average of this metric, for the 33 qualified passers, was 6.20.
I'm not sure what to call this stat, or if it even has any staying power, but for the purposes of comparing Jalen Hurts in 2022 to Carson Wentz going into 2017, we'll be relying on it. For the purposes of this discussion, let's call it Total Yards per Play (TYP for short). Of course, there are some obvious flaws. Most notably, it does not account for yards gained after the catch by the receiver. It can't measure situations where a QB may have an open player but not see him, or where the WR may run the wrong route. It likely gives unwarranted credit to a QB that may be playing behind a superior offensive line. Other issues likely exist and may have already occurred to you. Football is a complex enough sport that it's painfully difficult to invent a statistic that is both objective and yet captures all of these nuances. We're just going to do the best we can with what we have.
Let's get back to the subject at hand. First off, Carson Wentz, by this measure, was a disaster in 2016 (his rookie year). He had 14 traditional interceptions but by AI was really credited with 19 (5 dropped by the defense), as well as a league-high 14 fumbles. He was assessed with four penalties, a relatively high figure for a QB. Taking it all into consideration, his TYP was 5.12, more than a “yard/play” lower than average. It's hard to know what Jalen Hurts' TYP was for 2020 (his rookie year) as PFF doesn't track their AI for non-qualified passers, but it likely came in somewhere between 5.2 and 5.6. I've said before that I have a hard time counting 2020 against Jalen, considering he didn't have the benefit of any work with the starters until November, and the general state of complete dysfunction that existed around the Eagles that year.
Wentz, of course, was much better in 2017. His TYP score was an even 7.0, nearly a 37% improvement. What were the obvious factors in Wentz's improvement that year? A few things come to mind: 1) a healthy offseason, 2) a full offseason to focus as the starter, 3) significant offseason work focused on mechanics and footwork, 4) significantly improved offensive weaponry, 5) an excellent coaching environment for a QB to develop, and 6) the fact that Philly gave significant attention to the run game (the 2017 Eagles were sixth in the NFL in rushing attempts and third in yards).
It might be worthwhile to attempt to handicap the factors listed above to see how much each element contributed to Wentz's 2017 success:
Coaching environment (contributed 35% of total improvement). Pederson and Reich were NFL QB alums, and John DeFilippo was a tough but fair position coach that didn't take Wentz's trash.
Offseason mechanics work (25%). Wentz worked with mechanics guru Adam Dedeaux in the 2017 offseason. This was the only season that he did this.
Improved weaponry (15%). We talked the other week about how poor the Eagle's 2020 WR corp was. Their 2016 group was also comically bad (top four wide receivers by receptions: Jordan Matthews, Nelson Agholor, the Notorious DGB, Josh "Keystone Cop" Huff). We all remember how welcome the additions of Alshon Jeffrey and Torrey Smith were that following spring.
Healthy offseason / full offseason as a starter (10% apiece). I'll always be impressed that Wentz came out of the gates in 2016 as strong as he did, considering a) he was a rookie, b) he didn't play significant college competition, or have a lot of starting experience in college, c) he was banged up in training camp (already), and d) he wasn't even the starter until the team traded Sam Bradford in August. Still, it would be difficult to make the case that a clean offseason didn't help in 2017 (again, note the improvement in TYP).
Focus on run game (5%). Not much elaboration needed here, but it stands to reason that a strong and consistent ground game will open doors for the pass game downfield. More on this later.
Of these six factors, I'd argue only one (full offseason as a starter) applied to Wentz after 2017. Some of the wounds were self inflicted (why did he stop his offseason mechanics work?), some were out of his control (coaches leaving, injuries to himself and his supporting cast). Tracing his rise and fall becomes much easier once viewed through this lens.
Let's move on to our current QB: Hurts' TYP wasn't great in 2020, but again, I'm inclined to pass on that year and treat 2021 as his true rookie season. Jalen Hurts, by TYP, was much better last year. His TYP came in at 6.62, which ranked 11th out of 33 qualifiers last season, ahead of such luminaries as Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill and Matt Ryan. His score may be a little artificially boosted by his excellent OL and (as previously discussed) the fact that this metric does not penalize a player for not taking the optimal passing option, something that Hurts struggled with last year. The main factors that legitimately helped his score were his rushing production and efficiency (including a team high ten rushing scores), and a very low Reckless Play Percentage (another one of my made up stats, defined as total AI plus total fumbles divided by total rush/pass attempts). Hurts' RPP was 3.52%, which was the seventh lowest out of the 33 qualifiers (average RPP was 4.07%, if you're curious). I believe these traits are replicable and therefore should largely carry forward.
Side note: the top two quarterbacks by TYP were Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. The two quarterbacks with the lowest RPP were Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Here's a link to the full table for 2021. Here's the full table for last season:
The real question is, how much better can Hurts be in 2022? Despite what was said in the previous paragraph, we all understand that there needs to be some improvement from our starting QB if this team is to take the next step. I think we may be able to extract some insight by comparing the present situation to the factors that helped Wentz make his 2017 leap:
Coaching environment: not much correlation here. Nick Sirianni has a WR background, Shane Steichan never played QB that we know of (and has limited hands on QB coaching experience). QB coach Brian Johnson has had some success as a college QB coach (most notably he coached Dak Prescott at MSU during Prescott's last two years in college, and also mentored Kyle Trask at Florida), but last year was Johnson's first season in the NFL as a coach or player.
Offseason mechanics work. Interesting, and encouragingly, Hurts spent some time this offseason with Adam Dedeaux and his team.
Improved weaponry. AJ Brown, 'nuff said.
Healthy offseason. Check, but also true last season.
Full offseason as a starter. Check, but also true last season. Possible counter to this: much has been made over the fact that this is the first season since his high school days that Hurts has had the same offensive coordinator. I don't know how much that continuity helps, but it likely doesn't hurt (no pun intended).
Focus on run game. I sincerely hope that the lesson from last season will be learned. It's one thing to say “This is a passing league and we want to be a passing team”, it's another thing to say “We are going to play a style that fits our personnel, not force our personnel to play a predetermined style”. The Eagles did the first thing in the second half of last season and the second thing in the first half. Let's hope this year is more like the second half.
If the above breakdown is correct, and my handicap work on Wentz's 2017 improvement is also correct, I believe that we could see approximately a 15% increase in Hurts' TYP this season (that's the 40% of Wentz's improvement factors that apply to Hurts this year, times Wentz's 37% TYP improvement). Such an improvement would get Hurts' TYP to 7.59, which would be a top five ranking. I do not expect Hurts to actually be an All Pro, top five type QB this coming season, but the takeaway should probably be that Hurts can be good enough to help the Eagles become a real contender.
Before we let this analysis over inflate our expectations, let's point out the flaws and potential pitfalls: first, significant improvement may depend on Hurts having natural passing chops, which is no guarantee. You can develop it by coaching, and I think Hurts is both coachable and willing to seek out coaching, but that only takes a player so far. Second, I really believe that a focus on the run game is essential in maximizing Hurts' development, but the Eagles are organizationally committed to being a pass first team. Third, there were so many variables that contributed to the 2017 Eagles' rise that may or may not factor in here. Put another way, it's reasonable to state that Wentz was helped by the strong defense, the fact that Philly was almost completely under the radar that offseason and the overall quality of the team. Still, all that the Eagles need from Jalen Hurts to be a real contender is top ten caliber QB play. They will get there marginal improvement in his passing (a real possibility), and a strategy that's heavy on the run/RPO/play action game.
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