One thing you have to give Trader Howie credit for; he really knows how to rebuild on the fly. His style reminds me of how Billy Beane always described his strategy; as always being both rebuilding and reloading simultaneously. With all the transactions that have been made over the last month, I’ve been struggling to find a comparison for this team to where we were in the rebuild from the Chip Kelly years, but I think I’ve found my answer: we’re approximately where we were going into the 2017 season.
Right off the bat I should stress that I’m not putting Philly down for a Super trip, or even on the short list of contenders. The comp I’m making is in how I felt about both teams prior to the season. Consider the similarities:
Second year coach
Second year QB (Hurts is effectively a second year starter; one can hardly count 2020 considering how odd that year was in every way)
Back to back off seasons of major personnel change
Previous season was significantly underrated by the media at large. In 2016, Philly was a seven win, fourth place team that was largely under the radar coming into the following year, but there’s a real case to be made that the ‘16 Eagles were the best NFL team to finish with a losing record in decades. Similarly, while the ‘21 Birds had nine wins and made the playoffs, that achievement has been completely papered over with commentary about how weak the NFC East was*. The simple fact is that while neither team was spectacular, both teams were playoff caliber by multiple metrics, but did not get the respect they earned for a variety of reasons.
*The Birds finished the year 13th in Pro Football Reference's SRS rating, and 15th in PFF's now-famous DVOA rating. Clearly not a serious contender or anything special, but probably should be fairly considered above-average. The '21 Eagles were not a case of some secretly awful team that backed into the playoffs.
What’s the point of this? How close can we really be, based on where we stand at this moment? As we know, the answer really depends on Jalen Hurts’ development, but I thought it might be interesting to compare the rest of the roster from 2017 to the roster we’ve currently got, just for fun. We’ll comp Wentz to Hurts in a future piece.
Caveat before we begin: these comparisons are not meant to be direct comps between the current players and what we eventually found out about the guys from 2017. Many of the players on that team ended up having career years and/or were a lot better than we expected. These comps are between what we think we know about the current players right now against what we thought we knew about the '17 Eagles before the season started.
First off, the skill guys:
WR1: Alshon Jeffrey vs. AJ Brown. Similar players, but Brown has already earned as many Pro Bowl nods in fewer years than Jeffrey had by the time Alshon came to Philly. Jeffrey had to sign a one year, prove-it deal in 2017 while AJ was in line for a long term mega deal. Clear call, the 2022position is better.
WR2: Torrey Smith vs. DeVonta Smith. Some projection involved here, and Torrey was a fine player for the Super Bowl champs, but if DeVonta continues to develop and hits close to his ceiling, then 2022 will win out here as well.
SLOT: Nelson Agholor vs. Quez Watkins. Nelson “Hands” Agholor was one of the more frustrating adds from the Kelly years; he clearly had ability but never maxed out in Philly. I’ll never understand why Howie kept him around for five full years. 2022 is the clear winner here.
TE: Zach Ertz vs. Dallas Goedert. Goedert is a fine player, a top 10 TE without question. Ertz, however, was as good as it got at the position in 2017.
RB: Blount/Clement/Sproles vs. Sanders/Gainwell/Brooks. Really hard to say overall; I genuinely believe in the upside of our current group. Both Sanders and Gainwell offer big play versatility, and I think Brooks will make the team as a quality between-the-tackles grinder. The 2017 group was exactly what that team needed, something that was clear as early as the summer of ‘17. You could make this a classic upside vs. floor debate, but I’m happy to call it a push.
SKILL depth. The 2017 team was perhaps not as deep as you remember, beyond the guys I already mentioned. We could talk about an aging Brent Celek or Mack Hollins, but let’s not. This year we should see contributions from Boston Scott and Zach Pascal. Grant Calcaterra* is a really intriguing TE prospect that should see some snaps. This is of course the last year that the team will spend in seeing if Jalen Reager is an NFL player, assuming a trade isn’t found, but overall I do like the 2022 depth better.
*Check this out:
ITEM | PLAYER A | PLAYER B |
HEIGHT | 6'5" | 6'4" |
WEIGHT | 249 | 241 |
ARM LENGTH | 31 3/4 inches | 33 1/4 inches |
HAND SIZE | 9 3/4 inches | 10 inches |
40 YARD DASH | 4.76 | 4.62 |
20 YARD SHUTTLE | 4.47 | 4.04 |
VERTICAL JUMP | 35 1/2 inches | 35 4/5 inches |
BENCH PRESS REPS | 24 | 20 |
COLLEGE YARDS/GAME | 38.8 | 35.6 |
COLLEGE YARDS/CATCH | 12.8 | 13.9 |
COLLEGE TOUCHDOWNS PER CATCH | 0.13 | 0.16 |
Maybe you can guess, but one player is Zach Ertz and the other is Calcaterra. Of course, more goes into these projections than these items but the point is that we may have an exciting TE2 in house already.
LT: Jason Peters vs. Jordan Mailata. Two phenomenally gifted athletes, one approaching the end of a Hall of Fame career, the other just entering his prime. Both players were arguably in the 99th percentile in terms of their athletic upside. Peters obviously maximized his talents; it appears that Mailata is on that track as well. Comparing the perceptions of these players at these points in their careers, it’s hard to go against Jason Peters, considering he was still at an All Pro level. Big JM isn’t quite there yet, although we may feel differently in six months. (Slight) edge goes to 2017.
LG: Isaac Seumalo vs. Landon Dickerson. I actually had to look up who the week 1 starter was in 2017; I had thought it was Chance Warmack. Seumalo was (and still is) a perfectly fine starter who had seen some time as a rookie the prior year. Dickerson, if healthy, is a likely Pro Bowler. I’m going with 2022.
C: Jason Kelce vs. himself. Thankfully we still have JK hanging around, and the future Hall of Famer still appears to be playing at a high level. Yet I’m going 2017 here; I’d sooner have a 29 year old Kelce than a 34 year old version.
RG: Brandon Brooks vs. Isaac Seumalo. To reiterate, Seumalo is perfectly fine for this role. Brooks just happened to be the finest RG in the game at that point. 2017, no contest.
RT: Lane Johnson vs. himself. Basically, ditto to everything that was said about Jason Kelce above.
OL depth. Intriguing situation. The 2017 Eagles 2nd string included the aforementioned Warmack, Stefan Wisneiwski and Big V. All three had some pedigree and/or previous starting experience. This year’s team figures to use Andre Dillard, Jack Driscoll and Sua Opeta as their swing backups. Our 2022 group has more upside and flexibility. Watch for a potential Dillard trade that may fetch more than currently thought.
DE1: Vinny Curry vs. Josh Sweat. Curry was rarely considered a full-time starter in Philly; Sweat is still ascending and may be in line for a Pro Bowl nod this year if that continues. Call it for 2022.
DT1: Fletcher Cox vs. himself. Similar to Kelce and Johnson above, we’re looking at an aging version of a former star. Unlike the two OL stars, Cox is unlikely to be as impactful, even if healthy. The 2017 version was a superstar; this year’s version likely won’t make it as a starter through the end of the season.
DT2: Tim Jernigan vs. Javon Hargrave. Jernigan had made the all-rookie team his first year (2014), while Hargrave is coming off a Pro Bowl and appears to still be ascending. This could go either way but for now I think I like where we are in 2022 better.
DE2: Brandon Graham vs. himself. I think Graham’s game is aging well; there’s actually a case to be made that a player who builds his game on strength, effort and savvy will actually improve with age, as long as that player stays healthy. Graham’s health will be key to the defense’s success this year*. I’m calling this a push.
*With Brandon Graham in 2021, the Birds allowed .43 points per drive. Without him, that figure was 2.28/PPD. The 14 drives that BG was healthy are definitely too small a sample size to make much out of it, but I do remember the defense looked different without him in the lineup. Some hand wringing in the media about the lack of additions to the DE room; I think people may be sleeping on the simple fact that we're getting Graham back.
DL depth. The 2017 group rolled Derek Barnett, Beau Allen and Chris Long off the bench. We’re still featuring Derek Barnett, but will also feature Jordan Davis and Milton Williams. Another DE will need to emerge at some point, but I still like the potential of the 2022 group better at this point.
OLB: Mychal Kendricks/Nigel Bradham vs. Kyzer White/Haason Reddick. I think I’ve written about this before, but the 2017 Eagles quietly featured a really solid LB group. Both Kendricks and Bradham could play sideline to sideline and on all three downs. I like the potential of White and Reddick, but I think they’re tweeners that won’t add as much total value. Going with the 2017 OLBs.
MLB: Jordan Hicks vs. TJ Edwards. Hicks has had a nice career, and the case could be made that he’s had the finest NFL career of any Eagle LB draftee this century, which is probably more of a statement about the track record of Eagle linebackers, but still. Edwards will likely never be a star but is one of the more intelligent and underrated linebackers in the game today. You may have read this already, but he rated 10th overall in PFF’s LB grades for the 2021 season; that’s Pro Bowl worthy. I don’t know that you really could go wrong with either player, but I’m voting for 2022.
LB depth. The Super Bowl Eagles had a few options on the bench (Joe Walker, Nate Gerry, Kamu Grugier-Hill, Najee Goode), but 2022 Philly will be bringing in Nakobe Dean as well as three very athletic developmental guys in Davion Taylor, Shaun Bradley and Kyron Johnson (all three ran 4.5 or better in the 40). Patrick Johnson saw some real playing time as a rookie. Not all these guys will develop or even make the team, but the ceiling is unquestionably higher. Let’s go with 2022.
CB1: Ronald Darby vs. Darius Slay. Darby was an addition that provoked excitement for the 2017 season; he had made the all-rookie season in 2015 but an injury slowed him in 2016. Slay, meanwhile, has made four Pro Bowls in the last five years, including in 2021. Darby was considered to be ascending and likely had the higher ceiling, while Slay is more accomplished by far but is eight years older now than Darby was in 2017. Likely a debatable decision, but I’m going push.
SS: Malcolm Jenkins vs. CJ Gardner-Johnson. Jenkins was in an All Pro-worthy stretch. CJGJ has a lot of upside but will take some time to get up to speed at a position he hasn't played significantly since college. 2017, no doubt.
FS: Rodney McLeod vs. Marcus Epps. McLeod reminds me of Seumalo on offense in that he was a perfectly fine, solid starter that wasn’t a star but was better than some options. Epps is a player that seems to have the team’s support, and unlike in some cases I think it might be sincere. He tested extremely well in 2019; actually finished at or near the top in every exercise he participated in that year. He graded out as the best safety on the Bird’s ‘21 roster by PFF (18th overall leagewide). He should be just fine. Calling this a push.
CB2: Jalen Mills vs. James Bradberry. Mills had been a revelation his rookie season and seemed to be a potential star. Bradberry comes with star potential and seems to be a good fit for what Philly is trying to do on defense. He did, however, really struggle in 2021. This is, to me, a total question mark, so I guess I have to go push again.
SLOT: Patrick Robinson vs. Avonte Maddox: Robinson was a role player and a journeyman who was nevertheless fully qualified for this role. Maddox is the same, save the journeyman part. He’s likely still ascending and some league sources will likely give him more credit than I’m giving here, but I’m grading this as a push yet again.
DB depth: I had to look up the depth players for 2017, who were headlined by Corey Graham and Rasul Douglas. Other pieces included Jaylen Watkins, Chris Maragos and Randall Goforth. As we know, in the last three offseasons the Birds have brought in no fewer than 13 players acquired late in the draft, through minor trades, claimed off waivers or as UDFAs*. Seven of these players made the final 53 or the PS. History tells us that such players have a 10-12% chance of turning into a starting-caliber player, and with that many lottery tickets the chances are very good (+/-70%) that we’ll unearth at least one decent starter out of the group**. I do think that Anthony Harris is in a much better place as a bench player than a starter. Considering all that, I’m still going 2017 but it’s close. This may change by the end of the season.
*Just for fun and your reference, here's that list: Josh Blackwell, Reed Blankenship, Andre Chachere, Mario Goodrich, Tay Gowan, Josh Jobe, Jared Mayden, Mac McCain, Zech McPhearson, Jimmy Moreland, Josiah Scott, Kary Vincent Jr, K'Von Wallace. Blankenship, Jobe, McPhearson, Scott and Wallace all made the 53; Chachare and Goodrich made the PS.
**It turns out that if you like spreadsheets, you can actually simulate our chances of turning these thirteen long shots into starters. All you need is the random number function and a lot of copying/pasting. I did this (took less time than it might sound), and in 1,500 tests we managed to get at least one starting-caliber player 73% of the time. We get two or more starters out of the group 36.5% of the time. My current prediction for the most likely guy to emerge as a starter is Josh Jobe, with honorable mention going to Zech McPhearson and Reed Blankenship.
Overall, non-QB summary: By my count, I get 8 units where 2017 was superior, 11 where 2022 is superior and 8 that are toss ups. Of course, plenty of these are subject to debate and there will be disagreement with my final tallies. My overall point, however, is that our current roster looks favorably comparable to the Super Bowl roster, especially in the depth department. Stay tuned for a look at the QB comparison.
Go ahead and stir up any debates on this that you like. Fly Eagles fly!
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