I don't expect to take a significant amount of time to break down this weekend's Giant Rubber Match, partly because I want to save some time and energy to talk about a potential NFC title game, but mostly because there's no objective reason to think that Philly won't prevail. A partial list of reasons why:
The Birds opened as a 7.5 point favorite; as we discussed in the preseason a line greater than a touchdown indicates a win probability of more than 75% in Vegas' view.
You've likely heard this stat by now, but Philly has won nine in a row at home against the Giants, including two contests against playoff-bound New York teams. The Eagles have won a remarkable 20 of the last 26 games overall in this series.
If you recall my postseason preview, you may remember that I was not bullish on New York's chances as a championship contender. Cliff notes version: there are seven statistical traits that the vast majority of Super Bowl winning teams share; the Giants have none of them. This might beg the question “If they're so bad, why are they here at all?” The answer is pretty simple; their divisional round opponent was nearly as devoid of championship prospects as they were. Whoever won that comical New York-Minnesota clash would likely have been big underdogs in this round.
Philadelphia finished 6th in total points scored, New York finished 14th. Philly finished 8th in points allowed, New York finished 18th. The Eagles gained the 2nd most yards and allowed the 3rd fewest yards in the league; the Giants finished 18th and 25th, respectively. Remember the 22 tests from the playoff preview (four of which I just mentioned)? Philly finished better in 18 of them.
Philly is still plenty gimpy, but with the exception of Avonte Maddox, I believe all of the banged up players should be able to play. This will arguably be the healthiest that this team has been in two months. Jalen Hurts will be as reasonably close to 100% as could be expected.
Boston Scott. Need we say more?
In spite of all of this, there are still a couple points of concern. New York is a team with minimal top level talent, but they're a well-coached group that will be playing with full confidence and no pressure. The last two weeks went about as well as they could for the Giants in those regards (nearly knocking off Philly with their backups, then eliminating Minnesota on the road on national TV). All the numbers and facts back Philly, but this is not a gimme game that the Birds can take lightly. They'll need to be ready, which I believe they will be.
PREDICTION: Philly wins, something like 27-17. FLY EAGLES FLY!
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