Photo by Evan Brockett on Unsplash
It’s upon us at last (and no, I’m not actually talking about Christmas): the final, ultimate, decisive Eagles-Cowboys game of this season. This game is not only the biggest of the year, it might well have been the biggest Eagles regular season game in recent memory had the Cowboys not laid down for the Jaguars last Sunday. That defeat robbed this game of some of the winner-take-all stakes that we’ve seen in this rivalry over the years (games in 2006, 2008, 2009, 2013, 2019 all come to mind). What makes this week’s game different from virtually every other significant late season division game I can think of is that both of the contestants are not only playoff caliber, but are on the short list of genuine Super Bowl contenders. The stakes are for more than a playoff berth or division title, as the winner of the division will likely go on to the NFC’s #1 seed. We’ll talk at the end about the odds that the winner faces as far as the top seed goes, but I wanted to look at the key matchups that we’ll see on the field to see what kind of prognosticating we can really do in terms of a result.
Game Breakdown
GARDNER MINSHEW vs. COWBOYS PASS DEFENSE. I admit, I’m disappointed in Hurts’ injury for more reasons than merely his health. I had looked forward to breaking down Jalen’s excellent prospects against what is a beaten up Dallas secondary. Of course, we really don’t have much of an idea of what we’ll get from Gardner Minshew, but as I pointed out on Monday night, his track record of success before he came to Philly speaks to what he can do. In 2019, Minshew and Nick Foles were teammates in Jacksonville. Minshew’s efficiency stats (passer rating, QBR, ANY/A) bettered Foles’ by nearly 20%, and he won six of his 12 starts (Foles lost all four). It’s all but impossible to project how this might apply to Mishew in 2022, but if I absolutely HAD to make a guess I would think it’s reasonable to project that he’ll play like a marginally above-average passer, somewhere on the Derek Carr-Ryan Tannehill continuum.
Of course, the possibility exists as of this writing, that Jalen Hurts might actually play. It’s entirely possible that we won’t know for sure until kickoff, and even then, who knows how strong he’ll be? I hope he can play, but since we don’t know so many variables on his availability and performance I’m not going to take it into account here.
As far as the Cowboy’s pass defense is concerned, they have (on the whole) performed at an above-average rate. The average passer has performed about 9% less efficiently than normal against this defense. Is that counterbalanced by the fact that Minshew will probably perform at an above-average level? Very possibly. We should also not forget that two Cowboys DB starters (Anthony Brown, Jourdan Lewis) are on IR and won’t play. This grade should really be an incomplete, but we’re going to call it a slight Eagles advantage.
UPDATE: we learned on Thursday that Jalen Hurts is indeed out and Gardner Minshew will play; click here for a few thoughts.
EAGLES PASS PROTECTION vs. COWBOYS PASS RUSH. Anyone that’s followed the NFL this season knows that the pass rush is Dallas’ calling card. They’ve racked up 49 sacks so far (second to the Eagles’ 55), but a better measure of a pass rush is the total pressures (defined as sacks + QB knockdowns + QB hurries) a team has created. Dallas has pressured the QB 141 times against a total of 524 dropbacks, a pressure rate of 26.9%. Of course, knowing that percentage provides minimal context. It turns out that the opponents the Cowboys have faced have allowed a QB pressure on 22.2% of pass attempts in their non-Cowboys games, meaning the Cowboys have pressured the quarterback at an excess rate of 4.71% above expected.
How does this compare with the Eagles pass protection? You can do the exact same calculation in reverse to figure how far above (or below) average the Eagles are at preventing QB pressures; they permit pressures at a rate 5.29% less than expected. Essentially this comes out to a push. Ordinarily I’d rate it as a slight Eagles advantage (obviously 5.29% > 4.71%), but I’m not sure how much the dropoff in athleticism from Hurts to Minshew will affect this.
EAGLES RUSH OFFENSE vs. DALLAS RUSH DEFENSE. Let’s not overthink this. Philly averages 4.76 yards/rush (8th best in the NFL); Dallas surrenders 4.62 yards/rush (9th worst) and now will be with Leighton Vander Esch. This is a position of relative strength vs. relative weakness, and a solid Eagles advantage.
DAK PRESCOTT vs. EAGLES PASS DEFENSE. In the past I would have treated Prescott with a little more respect than now, mostly because he was a better player than he has been this year. Out of 33 qualified passers, Prescott ranks #18 in AY/A, #12 in passer rating, #11 in DVOA and #16 in ESPN’s QBR. In other words, not awful but thoroughly average. He has the tenth-worst bad throw percentage in the league.
Thankfully, the Eagles pass defense has not been average. By Pro Football Reference’s AY/A statistic, passing offenses have been 17% less efficient than normal facing the Eagles. James Bradberry continues to lead all NFL corners in fewest yards allowed per target (it isn’t particularly close). I do not think that adding TY Hilton will move the needle any bit at all for Dallas. This is a solid Eagles advantage.
COWBOYS PASS PROTECTION vs. EAGLES PASS RUSH. We can take the exact same statistics that we used on the other side of the ball to predict this matchup. Philly’s pass rush, while productive from a sack generation perspective, hasn’t radically exceeded expectations relative to its opposition; they have pressured opposing QBs 1.47% more often than expected. Meanwhile, Dallas’ OL has reduced pressures by 0.87% under expectations. In other words, this matchup is effectively a push, or would be if Dallas were healthy. We know that Terrance Steele won’t be playing for the Cowboys, and while Tyron Smith has made it all the way back from his preseason injury, one wonders how much he’ll be able to give. Given all of this, I’m giving a slight advantage to the Eagles.
COWBOYS RUSH OFFENSE vs. EAGLES RUSH DEFENSE. Based on raw statistics, this matchup favors the Cowboys. Dallas ranks #13 in rushing yards per carry, while Philly only ranks #25 in rushing YPC allowed. It’s possible that those numbers won’t tell the full tale, if for no other reason than the Eagles have only integrated Jordan Davis, Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph fully over the last couple weeks. Over these last three games, the only players that have really burned the Birds on the ground have been QBs. Prescott has not been the running QB he used to be since his ankle injury in 2020. Of course, for some reason, Zeke Elliott always seems to feast when he plays the Birds (he has averaged 22.3% more yards from scrimmage in games against the Birds than against all other teams). That said, I think this matchup slightly favors Dallas, but it wouldn’t stun me to see Philly do better than I am currently projecting.
SPECIAL TEAMS. Sadly, this is a clear advantage for the Cowboys. I evaluated six different basic special teams statistics (punt return average, kickoff return average, punt return defense, kickoff return defense, punting and kicking) and the Cowboys had a noticeable edge in each one. The cumulative difference of these elements alone could add up to 2-3 points per game, between advantages gained in field position and missed/made placement kicks. If that sounds like an exaggeration, remember that the Eagles cost themselves a FG in the first meeting by allowing KaVontae Turpin to rumble 63 yards on a return just before halftime. Dallas kicker Brett Maher is statistically the greatest kicker from 60+ in NFL history; I’ve personally seen this ability win at least two games for Dallas over the years.
I’m not sure what it’s worth, but we should note that the Eagles’ special teams have been substantially improved over the last few weeks. If that’s a trend and not a blip, this mismatch won’t be as severe as I’m pointing out. It is, however, unmistakably a mismatch.
COACHING. [note: I am solely focusing on regular season games for all statistics in this section] I never was particularly impressed with Mike McCarthy, but after doing this study I am officially UN-impressed. As we know, MM has had two NFL head coaching jobs. He won 61.8% of his regular season games in Green Bay and has won 59.6% of his games in Dallas so far. Those are both winning records, so what’s the problem? I propose that his success is entirely a function of the situations he’s been in. McCarthy replaced Mike Sherman in Green Bay, who won 59.4% of his games. MM was replaced by Matt LaFleur in GB, who’s won 71.4% there so far. Similarly, MM replaced Jason Garrett in Dallas, who won 55.9% of his games during his decade in Dallas. When your record, using the same players, is only marginally better than Mike Sherman and Jason Garrett, you know you aren’t setting the world on fire. This guy is, generously, a thoroughly average coach.
Nick Sirianni, by contrast, has won 71% of his games so far. That is the best winning percentage by any full time coach in the 90 years of Eagles history. Since he’s only been here just under two years, it’s way too early to anoint him as the Next Big Thing but consider this: Sirianni’s 22 wins in his first 31 games is still the most for any Eagles coach ever (side note: the runners up each have 20 wins in their first 31 games; Doug Pederson and Rich Kotite). No matter what happens going forward, it’s certainly hard to complain about the results so far. Big advantage, Eagles.
HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE. I bring this up because JerryWorld has long (and justly) been the butt of a lot of anti-Dallas jokes. It’s worth noting that it hasn’t been a substantial home field advantage either; I calculate that, since AT&T Stadium opened in 2009, Dallas only gains an average of 1.57 points/game from playing at home (this is derived by comparing their average margin of victory at home vs. what it is on the road in the same year). There is significant and ongoing debate in NFL circles over what home field advantage is actually worth, but most sources agree that it lands in the 2-3 point range, making AT&T a weaker than average source of support.
Conversely, the Eagles (over the same time frame) do not seem to be significantly affected by playing on the road. Using the same methodology as above, I calculate that Philly only “suffers” a 0.31 PPG road disadvantage. To calculate the situational advantage here, you’d need to average the two results, which gives Dallas a minimal 0.94 point edge. In other words, (very) slight advantage Cowboys.
RESULTS VS. COMMON OPPONENTS. As we know, because of the way the NFL does its scheduling, there is a lot of overlap in these two team’s schedules. In fact, 11 of the 14 games each team has played have been against common opponents. There are multiple ways of evaluating these games:
Straight record: Eagles 10-1, Cowboys 9-2
Average margin of victory: Cowboys 12.3 PPG, Eagles 7.7 PPG
Average margin of victory, adjusting for garbage time and location: Cowboys 12.0, Eagles 10.0
Average net yardage per game: Eagles 110.8, Cowboys 58.4
To my way of thinking, that last line is probably the most instructive. Deep data football analysts would say that the difference in the yardage (52.4 YPG) is worth between 3-4 points. Is that accurate? Does that outweigh everything else? I’m not sure. These data points seem to slightly favor the Birds, but it’s not conclusive enough for me to say that this is anything but a push.
PERFORMANCE IN HIGH LEVERAGE CONTESTS. Most Philly fans share the opinion that the Cowboys are both posers and chokers; I share this sentiment. We know what the recent playoff record of the Cowboys is (three playoff wins in 25 years and 13 games is very difficult to explain rationally outside of the choker theory); I was curious to see if this trend continued into the late regular season. I went year-by-year (starting with 1995) and noted games for both the Cowboys and the Birds that met the following criteria: 1) were regular season games played in December or January, 2) were played against playoff teams, 3) the starters did not rest. I found that, while neither team has a stellar record, the Birds have a notable advantage. Philly has racked up a 14-23 mark (37.8%) in such games while Dallas is 13-31 (29.5%). What’s notable is that in years in which Philly or Dallas was a playoff team (which applies to both teams this year), the difference is more pronounced; Philly is 10-6 (62.5%) while Dallas is only 6-9 (40%). Most notably, these teams have met several times during this stretch in high leverage scenarios (I count these as meetings where both teams were destined for the playoffs, or where the game was effectively an elimination game). Philly has beaten Dallas in six of the eight games that fit this description, which seems significant.
You may wonder why the results from previous seasons are relevant for this year. You may also wonder why I chose 1995 as the starting point for this analysis. Believe it or not, these issues are directly linked. I discussed it in the preseason briefly, but my theory is that the modern era of the Dallas Cowboys began with the 1995 season, considering that was the first year after Jimmy Johnson had been run out of town, and the Cowboys were truly Jerry’s team. Of course, that was also the first full year (including the offseason) of Jeffrie Lurie’s ownership of the Eagles. Considering both men have distinct styles in the way they run their franchises (probably a deep enough topic to be the subject of a future blog post of its own), it’s safe to use the 1995 season as the starting point for the modern version of this rivalry. Having said all this, you’d have to conclude the Eagles have a slight advantage under this analysis.
Prediction: By my count, the Eagles have a large advantage in three categories and a small advantage in three more. Dallas has slight edges in two categories and a large advantage in one. The biggest variable, of course, is the question “Who plays QB for Philly, and what will they get out of that player?” I genuinely believe that Minshew will do a good job if he’s called on to start. Should Hurts play, they’ll need to be sure his pain management is on point as Dallas will be looking to make him hurt in his throwing shoulder. Once news broke that Jalen was injured, the Vegas line moved quickly from Cowboys by one to Cowboys by six. That’s a mistake. These are two pretty evenly matched teams, but the Eagles are better in the trenches overall, they are more well coached, they have better weapons and have generally fared better in these moments. Situationally, this sets up well for Philly as well, considering they are (almost) a lock for the #1 seed no matter what happens (see below), and will have a whiff of that all-important underdog mentality with Hurts’ injury. All the expectations and commensurate pressure is on Dallas. I like Philly to win, something like 24-20 sounds about right.
Fallout: Thanks to the egg that Dallas laid in Jacksonville, we all know that a Philly victory wraps up not only the division title but the NFC’s top seed. We also know that Dallas has backed into a playoff spot as well, meaning that they’ll be locked in as a Wild Card with a loss on Saturday. Since that’s all very clear, let’s think about what might happen with an Eagles loss on Saturday. Should that happen, Dallas would still need to win both of their remaining games (@Titans, @Commanders), while Philly would need to lose both of their games (Saints, Giants). In other words, four distinct results would need to occur in a row for the Birds to lose control of the division. Let’s handicap the chances that this occurs:
Philly loses to New Orleans: probably a “no”, let’s call it 15%
Dallas beats Tennessee: the Cowboys will be favored, let’s give them 75%
Philly loses to the Giants: this won’t happen if the Eagles are still trying, I’ll be generous and give New York a 10% shot.
Dallas beats Washington: I’m also going with a 75% chance here, although the Commanders will probably have more to play for by this point than Dallas will
Multiply all that out, and you get a whopping 0.84% chance that Dallas catches the Eagles, even with a Christmas Eve win. In other words, the road to the Super Bowl on the NFC side will go through Philadelphia more than 99% of the time.
FLY EAGLES FLY!
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