At this point we’re basically halfway through the 2023 Eagles season, and we’re about to embark on one of the more brutal stretches of NFL scheduling that I can remember. I’ve said for years that the NFL season really begins on Thanksgiving, so if that’s true we’ll learn a lot about the 2023 Birds over the next month or so. Let’s hand out a few grades, bat around a few ideas and make a few predictions:
Jalen Hurts grade: B. Most observers would acknowledge that Jalen has seemingly taken a step back this season for unknown reasons (a few possibilities: predictable regression to the mean, nagging injuries, a solid group of opposing defenses played so far, a slight reduction in preparation after a shorter offseason filled with contract negotiations and off-field interests), but it’s just as notable that he’s really started to come on as a passer over the last few weeks of the season. Here’s hoping his knee injury doesn’t linger as running is such a big part of his game. What we do know about Jalen is that he’s a winner. Everyone has seen those stat memes showing information like “Jalen has won 20 of his last 21 starts”; those are misleading for a couple reasons (most notably they cherry pick the start point of the streak), but what’s not misleading is Jalen’s overall record as a starter since he came into the league; check it out:
Regular season record as a starter (hereafter designated RSRAAS): 31-12 (72.1%)
RSRAAS vs. eventual playoff teams: 8-6 (57.2%)
RSRAAS vs. teams finishing above .500: 11-6 (64.7%)
RSRAAS vs. teams with a top five defense: 4-3 (57.2%)
Some of those figures may not look impressive, but compare them to Golden Boy Patrick Mahomes’ records as a starter (79.8%), against playoff teams (64.9%) and winning teams (65.0%) and you won’t see a remarkable difference.
Offensive line grade: A. The base numbers aren’t great (middle of the road in pressure rate allowed and yards per carry), and you kind of have to take a deep dive into advanced stats to find some of the dominance. I’m going to fall back on the good old eye test to make this grade, and anyone that’s watched this team knows the truth of it. Over the last few seasons there is nothing quite so inevitable as the Eagles picking up short yardage (even on fourth down, even deep in their own end). Added to that needs to be the patented Eagles Long Drive, where Philly just runs the ball down the defenses throat and grinds clock. Check these out:
There have been 113 drives in the NFL so far that lasted 10+ plays, gained 75+ yards and ended in a TD; Philly has had seven of them (third leaguewide).
There have been 56 drives of 15+ plays; Philly leads the league with six.
There have been 54 drives of greater than 7:30 (more than half a quarter); Philly has had seven (no one else has more than four).
You can cite these kinds of stats all day long, but the simple fact remains that this is the best position group on the team, the best OL unit in the league and has been so for the last 10+ years.
Skill position grade: B. Frankly, the unbelievable season that AJ Brown is having keeps this grade from going lower, as no one else has really been a consistent difference maker throughout the entire season to date (Swift, Smith and Goedert have each had their moments but have equally had stretches of invisibility). Overall, both Gainwell and Penny have disappointed. Quez Watkins and Boston Scott have been on and off the active roster (with only 15 offensive touches between them). Still a good unit overall but for this team to go where they want to go, we’ll need to see some of the other guys really step up going forward.
Pass rush grade: A. 8th in pressure rate, 5th in sacks per game, 5th in hurry rate, 5th in ESPN’s pass rush win rate. None of these stats jump off the page as super-elite, but keep two things in mind: 1) Reddick was hobbled with that hand injury for the first few weeks; his per game efficiency has been noticeably improved since the first three games, and 2) the ridiculous depth this team has will mean much more as the season goes on. Look for all of these numbers to continue to improve over the second half of the year.
Run defense grade: B+. Similar to the pass rush above, the Eagles’ advanced stats tell a good story for the rush D (7th lowest YPC allowed, 6th lowest first downs allowed per rush, 4th in run stop win rate). All this achieved despite playing four games against teams in the top ten in rush YPC. Zach Cunningham has proven to be a great addition as has Nick Morrow. Of course, Jalen Carter contributes heavily both here and in the pass rush. Jordan Davis’ emergence as a quality player is quietly one of the most promising storylines of the season so far.
Pass defense grade: D. We all know this, but things have not gone well with the secondary so far. Philly is 25th in ANY/A allowed and 28th in passer rating allowed. They are more middle of the road in yards per pass allowed (12th) and expected points contributed by the pass D (17th). Blankenship has been solid, but both Slay and Bradberry have regressed (especially Bradberrry, who has gone from All Pro to cut risk in a remarkably short amount of time). Bad injury luck at slot CB hasn’t helped (the top two slots are both OFY and their third guy, Roby, has basically been unavailable since he was signed). Kevin Byard is finding his way slowly and Justin Evans has, of course, been hurt. I do think this group will improve, if only slightly, for a few reasons: 1) there’s nowhere to go but up, 2) if they stay healthy, this veteran group has too much experience to be this awful, 3) this unit has been shredded with injuries (I count 31 games missed so far by key contributors, and counting), but many of these guys are back or will be back in coming weeks, 4) as the year goes on, pass D becomes more about positioning than athleticism because players tire out, the weather gets worse and more tape is out on offenses. That’s the glass-half-full approach, and such improvement will be absolutely essential to the Birds’ chances as few teams with pass defenses this bad have ever won the Super Bowl.
Special teams grade: B. Frankly, considering how bad the special teams were last year, anything above a “D” should probably be celebrated. We all know how good Elliott has been for them this year, but here’s a few highlights from the rest of the unit:
Braden Mann hasn’t been a killer but has ranked 12th (out of 35) in net punting and 15th in punts placed inside the 20.
Britain Covey is third among qualifiers in punt return average.
The kick and punt return defenses haven’t been very good but at least they aren’t the obvious liabilities that they were last year.
Rick Lovato, of course, remains an absolute unit.
Coaching grade: A-. I’m impressed by the fact that this team just seems to keep winning. New coordinators (who have both struggled at times)? Short offseason and Super Bowl hangover? Curse of the Super Bowl loser? Star QB hobbled for weeks? Injuries to key players (Dallas Goedert, Lane Johnson, Cam Jurgens, Jalen Carter, Nakobe Dean, Reed Blankenship, Justin Evans, Darius Slay, Avonte Maddox, Zech MacPhearson)? Tougher than expected early schedule (six of nine early opponents are .500 or better in non-Eagles games)? None of it seems to matter; Philly has the league’s best record and has notably outperformed virtually everyone’s expectations (including mine; I called for a 6-3 start while outscoring opponents by 43 points. They have in fact outscored them by 57). I can’t give a perfect grade due to the issues with the new coordinators but there’s good reason to think they’ll improve as they settle in and get some players back from injury. Great job, Nick.
Outlook. We’ve had this coming five game stretch circled for months, and it looked as formidable then as it does now (the next five opponents are a combined 31-15 so far this season, and all are in the playoff chase). Let’s go game-by-game:
@Chiefs. Philly hasn’t yet beaten Andy Reid since he was fired here and went to KC (0-4). It’s interesting to note that Andy won all three games in this series while he was the coach here, making his record 7-0 in this series all time. Those of us that followed this team when Reid was here remember his legendary edge coming off the regular season bye; that has largely carried over to his time in KC (he’s 21-3 in that situation all time). Of course, both teams are coming off the bye. Call me a hater if you want, but this is not a game I’m picking Philly in, especially if the officials have their hands on the scale in KC’s favor as is typical.
Bills. Buffalo has not had the season to date that most expected, but they are still in the hunt and shouldn't be counted out. Philly will be on the short week as well, coming off MNF. I’m reminded of last year’s Thanksgiving weekend game with the Packers in a lot of ways (stretch run kicked off with a big home game against an underachieving contender).
49ers. Time for a revenge game, really on both sides (SF has been waiting for this since Purdy’s injury last January, and Philly fans are beyond tired of the 49er whining). SF had a get-right game against Jacksonville last weekend and they delivered. This game will be close no matter what else takes place. It might be worth noting that Philly has been pretty successful versus Kyle Shanahan (against Shanahan as an OC or HC, Philly is 9-5).
@Cowboys. The first game had a little bit of everything; I think fans of both teams are excited about this rematch. Philly will likely not be favored unless things radically change for one or both teams by then, but if there’s one thing I’ve learned it’s that you can never count out the Poser Cowboys from screwing up a critical game during the stretch run. A note going in the other direction; Philly hasn’t actually swept the Cowboys since 2011.
@Seahawks. I’ve been pointing it out for years (including in the preseason), but Pete Carroll has been kryptonite for the Eagles, with a 7-0 total record since he came to Seattle. Seattle is also a tough place to play for visiting teams, as they’ve won better than two thirds of all home games since their stadium opened. Still, Seattle isn’t quite as good as their record and I’m looking forward to seeing what Sirianni can do against Carroll, as this will be their first meeting as head coaches. It will also be Carroll’s first game against Philly without Russell Wilson since 2011.
To speak frankly, I will be pleasantly surprised if Philly comes out of this stretch with more than two wins. Certainly you hope for more, and it’s possible they outperform my expectations again, but there wouldn’t be many teams that would do notably better. For whatever it’s worth, the team favored by my preseason guess at the point spreads is 9-0. That same metric called for Philly to be underdogs in three of these five games (with a fourth being a pick ‘em). I will be more than happy to come back in five weeks and take my lumps if it turns out I’m underestimating the Birds here, but don’t undersell how tough this stretch will be.
The good news is that the final three games (Giants, Cardinals, @Giants) will all see the Birds as heavy favorites. I think the Eagles win all three games with relative ease (I’d calculate the chances of a sweep to be around 84%). If everything plays out this way, that leaves Philly with a 13-4 record (5-1 in the division). That’s likely good enough to not only win the division but grab the top seed in the NFC.
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