CLICK HERE for my initial reaction to Sunday's game.
There's a lot of hand wringing over the near-miss in Detroit on Sunday, from pundits and fans alike. I'd certainly not argue that all went as it should (quick list of issues: too many penalties, at least four dropped passes, nonexistent rush D, weak overall tackling), but I'd like to inject some (apparently) much needed optimism into the mix:
1. Detroit does this (put a big scare into a playoff team early in the season) on practically an annual basis. Check this out:
2021: took a 49ers team that would end up in the NFC Championship Game to the wire; a late Lions rally placed the final score at 41-33.
2020: a Saints team that ended up with the NFC's top seed narrowly escaped Detroit by a score of 35-29.
2019: beat a playoff-bound Eagles team 27-24, and nearly knocked off eventual champion Kansas City (final score 34-30).
2018: beat eventual champs New England 26-10, nearly knocked off Dallas (lost 26-24).
2017: upset eventual NFC runners-up Minnesota 14-7, and nearly beat Atlanta (lost 30-26).
2016: eventual NFC runner up Green Bay narrowly beat Detroit 34-27.
2015: Seattle narrowly escapes Detroit, 13-10.
2014: beat eventual NFC runner up Green Bay 19-7.
2012: two narrow early losses; 27-19 to Super Bowl losers San Francisco and 20-13 to playoff-bound Minnesota.
2010: three narrow losses; 19-14 to NFC runners-up Chicago, 35-32 to Philly and 28-26 to eventual SB champ Green Bay.
If you've been keeping count, that's 16 instances in twelve years of an (often awful) Detroit team either beating or scaring an eventual playoff team, and these are only in the first four weeks of the season. The average score was Eventual Playoff Team 24, Detroit 23. Three of those teams ended up in the Super Bowl, and six more made an NFC championship game. I'm not sure what to make of this, other than history says not to sweat out a close game in Detroit in September.
2. Philly has a win. Here's the list of contending teams that do not have a win: Patriots, Bengals, Colts, Titans, Broncos, Raiders, Cowboys, Packers, Rams, 49ers, Cardinals. Of course, some of these teams played other good teams, but some didn't (Colts, 49ers, Bengals, Titans) and it's hard to get excited about the Rams getting curb-stomped at home in their season opener, no matter who they played. Are all of these teams done? Of course not. The point is that one week does not define a season, especially this week.
3. This is still a mostly healthy team (Derek Barnett news aside). No starter is banged up yet. Meanwhile, Dallas just lost their most important player for at least a month. Good health is nearly as important as wins this early in the season.
4. I think the biggest takeaway here is that Philly needed a few more preseason practice reps. It shouldn't surprise anyone that a team that practiced much harder pushed Philly off the ball most of the afternoon. This may also partially account for a lot of the unforced errors we saw (penalties, drops, broken tackles, etc.). The defense also was breaking in five new starters; that kind of turnover has some startup costs.
All in all, I'm OK with how this season started. Of course, if the defense is still struggling and only AJ Brown is catching balls by the time we hit November, it'll be a much bigger deal.
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