[NOTE: I'm providing this as a reference point for the purposes of comparing where we are right now with where we've been over the last few years]
Unit Grades (as of May, 2018)
I expect the Birds to make a couple minor moves at a couple spots, but I think we can safely evaluate and grade the roster as things stand now. I'm going to use a 1-10 scale as follows:
9-10: the unit belongs in the conversation for “best in league”
7-8: Really good, maybe can use some work
4-6: mediocre to average
1-3: weak to awful
The units I'll look at are the same that I graded for the Super Bowl: QB, SKILL, OL, DL, LB, DB, ST. Here we go:
QB grade: 10/10. It's hard to think of a QB situation in recent memory that's actually been better than what Philly has right now. Carson Wentz belongs in the argument for “best QB in the league”. Nick Foles might be the best backup QB in football since Steve Young, and is likely a top 15 QB in his own right. Nate Sudfeld is good enough to be a lot of team's QB2. Philly invested several minor FA contracts in competition for the depth cart, so no one will sit still. The best part? All of this only counts about $22 million against the cap...or less than most star QB1 guys will make.
SKILL grade: 7/10. I find it difficult to go any higher than this number; I do believe the Eagles will miss guys like Blount (power back) and Celek (blocking TE) more than we currently hope. Ajayi can be a great power back if healthy and motivated, but there's no guarantee those things hold the entire season. There's plenty of buzz around Billy Brown and Dallas Goedert (with good reason), but neither of them are known for blocking at this point in their careers. I do look for the Birds to make another move here somewhere (they brought Terrance West in for a visit Tuesday, to that point). Still, there's plenty of good players and overall depth at this spot. They'll be fine.
OL grade: 10/10. This might be my favorite group on the team. All five starters played at an All Pro level last year, and all return. The second string includes a Super Bowl winning LT (Big V), a former top ten draft choice (Warmack), and two interior OL prospects that I really liked coming out of college (Semualo and Toth). The two guys they drafted this year are high upside prospects that were certainly worth the risk/reward where they were drafted. Jeff Stoutland is one of the best in the business.
DL grade: 8.5/10. If there were no pending health or off field issues, this unit would get a 10 easily. However, too many potential problems cast a bit of a cloud over this spot, including continuity (Allen and Curry were solid contributors), health (Jernigan and Sweat), contract (Graham) and legal (Bennett). This is another spot where I expect a move to be made (Courtney Upshaw was in for a visit Tuesday). Overall, the talent and depth here will keep the DL effective, and I expect the team to get it all figured out by the stretch run, but it's very fair to expect some hiccups for the first couple months.
LB grade: 5.5/10. This grade is really hard to pin down, for me at least. On the good side, I see the unit coming back intact (it wasn't that long ago that Kendricks was considered a goner, and no one expected them to re-sign Bradham). On the bad side, Kendricks may still go and Jordan Hicks isn't fully healthy yet. On the good side, the depth here is really good (I expect both Corey Nelson and Paul Worrilow to make good contributions, and Nate Gerry may be ready for a breakout). On the bad side, Jordan Hicks is the only true star in the unit, and again, he's hurt. I really think this grade could go anywhere from 4-7, so I split the difference.
DB grade: 7/10. In my opinion, the starting quartet of Darby-Jones-Jenkins-McLeod is, from a talent perspective, one of the best in the league. Jalen Mills is a versatile piece that can play anywhere. I expect Rasul Douglas to move to safety. This Maddox kid they drafted will find a place. On the downside, we aren't sure yet what we'll get from Sidney Jones, and there's a critical lack of safety depth (as of right now, it's the two starters, Chris Maragos, a couple undrafted camp bodies...and that's it). The remaining pool of free agent safeties is easily the deepest and most talented of any position group and I expect a move here. This is a good group but not an elite one. If the pass rush struggles for any reason, this unit may have some issues.
ST grade: 8/10. Bad news first: their kick returners from the last couple seasons were Kenjon Barner (a free agent) and Darren Sproles (health concerns). Solid and steady veteran punter Donnie Jones is history. On the plus side, most of their star coverage unit guys return (Maragos, Grugier-Hill, Hollins, among others), and Jake Elliott may be a star in the making. Some of the running backs on the bubble (Smallwood and Pumphrey come to mind) have kick return chops and real motivation to prove their worth. Dave Fipp is a ST genius and has pieces to work with. This group has been one of the best in the league over the last few seasons, and if some of these concerns are addressed it will be again.
In my opinion, the roster is in great shape overall. I doubt there are any teams with fewer holes in this league. The biggest concerns that I see are safety depth and the potential hazards along the defensive line. Still, management has done a superb job keeping the overall talent level high despite severe restrictions with the cap and the draft, and the coaching staff remains elite.
Unit re-Grades and some other thoughts (September, 2018)
Football season is all but back! Here are my preseason Birds thoughts, in no particular order:
You may recall back in May I rated each unit on the team on a scale of 1-10. I'm relisting the ratings by position with updated scores:
QB (old score 10.0, new score 8.5). Why the drop? If everyone was healthy and right, it's a 10 easily. But Wentz is not going to be ready for week 1, and won't be 100% for awhile. Foles isn't 100% either and has struggled. We're still in good shape here but I think some patience will be required.
SKILL (7.0, 8.0). I'm very impressed with the overall talent, depth and versatility of this group. Some good players were cut; I can live with that problem.
OL (10.0, 10.0). Bottom line: this is still the best OL group in the league.
DL (8.5, 8.5). Still a very good group, although they'll need some tackles to step up. I'm not convinced that anyone other than Cox is a full season difference maker.
LB (5.5, 3.0). This group got an average score BEFORE Kendricks and Nelson were cut, and before Worrilow hurt his knee. Grugier-Hill looks good in camp, but will that translate? Bradham is suspended a game. Hicks is an injury concern. The staff seems to think that Gerry is an impact player, and it seems that he'll need to be. This is my biggest point of concern on the team.
DB (7.0, 8.0). This should be a really good group this year. My only concern is safety depth, where we have only one experienced player under 30 years old.
ST (8.0, 8.0): No change here.
As you can tell, I've got a few concerns. What will they get from their quarterbacks? Will the interior of the defense hold up? Not listed above but on all of our minds, will there be a Super Bowl hangover? Will they fall victim to the Disease of More? How does this team manage expectations?
Time for some good news. There have been several approaches taken by those that call for regression for Philly. One such line of thinking says something to the effect of: “This team wasn't any good for a long time, they haven't won a playoff game since 2008, so they are a flash in the pan that will regress.” Not so fast! I took the liberty of looking up the Eagles' final DVOA rank from 2009-2017: 3rd, 3rd, 9th, 28th, 8th, 7th, 22nd, 5th, 5th. You'll notice that they finished in the top ten EVERY year but 2012 and 2015, hardluck years that got the coach fired both times. The average rank over those nine years was 10th (playoff caliber). If you toss out the two worst and two best years, you get an average rank of 7th, which is on the fringe of Super Bowl contention. My point is just that Philly has actually been really good for a long time, but this past year was the first year that it actually showed.
Many Super Bowl winners regress because they lose core players to retirement or free agency. Philly is unique in this regard as they offset a lot of losses with shrewd additions, or returns from injury. Think: they lost Blount but welcome back Darren Sproles. They lost Celek and Burton but drafted Dallas Goedert. Curry and Allen departed but they signed Haloti Ngata and traded for Michael Bennett*. Patrick Robinson left for NO, but Sidney Jones is finally healthy and may be more talented. Just about every other key player is back and they get luxury adds in Peters (back from injury) and Josh Sweat (a first round talent that slipped due to injury). The only spot with a net negative is probably the LB group, as I said before. Other than that this team has better talent and depth. *(How great was this trade? Combined with a trade that Roseman made before the 2017 season started, it worked out to Matt Tobin and some WR I can't remember for Bennett. Those were two players that would not have made this roster for a player that should contribute heavily. And even if he bombs due to age or off field problems, they can cut him for nothing after the season.)
One more thought on regression: the SB champs in recent memory that remained strong the following season had great continuity, especially in the trenches. Perhaps the best example of this is the 2008 Giants, who actually improved from 10 to 12 wins. They may have repeated if Plaxico Burress hadn't literally shot himself in the foot. That team was monstrous on both the offensive and defensive lines, and both units returned almost intact. Philly is similarly set up this year.
The biggest hurdle this team will face isn't continuity or regression, it's simply that the NFC is brutal and it'll be hard for any team to get through. I think the playoff teams will be Philly, Green Bay, Minnesota, New Orleans, Atlanta, and LA. I think Dallas and Carolina will be lurking around the playoff picture all year long. I think teams like Detroit, Seattle, and Chicago could force their way into the conversation. Even the teams I DIDN'T mention will be tough outs. Like last year, we could see several very good teams miss the NFC playoffs.
Let's look at the schedule itself. I like to break down games by the chances I think we have of winning them: 80-100%, 60-80%, 40-60%, 20-40% and of course 0-20%. In the first category (most likely wins) I count just three (@Bucs, Colts, Redskins). Second category (solid favorite) I count five games (Vikings, Panthers, Cowboys, Giants, Texans). The other eight games (Falcons, @Titans, @Giants, @Jaguars in London, @Saints, @Cowboys, @Rams, @Redskins) are in that middle category (40-60, or a toss up). I can't really rate our chances in any game below 40% as there isn't a team on our schedule that I'd pick over the Birds given a neutral field and even health. If you assume an upset or two in the games we're favored in and perhaps three or four losses in the toss up games, you're looking at 10, 11 or 12 wins.
Another way to slice up the schedule is to look at the games before and after the bye week; conveniently, there are eight in both groups. I expect the Birds to struggle a bit out of the gate, with many players who won't play to start the year (Wentz, Bradham, Jernigan, Jeffrey), will play but are hurting (Ajayi, Clement, Agholor), or are returning from injury (Graham, Peters, Sproles, Jones). The early months of the year are chaotic anyway, and teams often look much better or worse after September than they really are (neither the '16 Patriots or the '17 Eagles looked good at all after four games). I think the only teams in that first eight games that won't be serious playoff contenders are Tampa and New York, and we get those two on the road. All of which is to say: don't panic if they drop some games early on. They could well get into the bye week with three or four losses. The second half of the schedule is softer; I think they can win three of the four road games (@Saints, @Cowboys, @Rams, @Redskins), and potentially sweep the home games. Don't forget that the second half of the season tends to favor teams with better continuity, depth and coaching, and that's Philly. All told, I think ten wins is likely the WORST case scenario for this team, and that should be enough to get back to the playoffs.
So there's my season preview. One more thought, and I'm sorry it's a negative, but I don't feel good about Thursday night. Too many key players out, too many expectations, too much pressure, and an opponent that would love nothing better than to get revenge for a tough playoff loss on this field from eight months ago. I still think it's a toss up, but it's a tough matchup. Just keep expectations reasonable.
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