[NOTE: I'm providing this as a reference point for the purposes of comparing where we are right now with where we've been over the last few years]
2018 Season in Review
I wrote back in November: “Guys, this season is over.” I closed with “PS: if the Birds make a run and I have to eat my words, I'll be happy to take all of this back. I don't think it's happening, though.” Boy, those words taste funny these days! It's easy to be despondent when you've been on the receiving end of the kind of beating we took from the Saints (48-7, remember how fun that was?). The following two weeks, the Birds scraped by a terrible NYG squad then gave another game away to the Cowboys, leaving Philly with only mathematical odds of becoming relevant. Of course, you know what happened from there.
So, what can we say? What can be taken away from that season that might be worth something in predicting what will happen next? I'm going to offer several thoughts.
First, some of the complaints we had about last year's team were valid; I'm thinking specifically of the lack of continuity with the coaching staff, the lack of hunger after finally getting that elusive SB win, and most of all the incredible pressure of trying to repeat. It's impossible to quantify any of these problems, but in the NFL so little separates teams from winning and losing (or from 13-3 to 9-7), and relatively minor issues can go a long way.
Second, the Eagles' luck with injuries was simply awful. At least half of the NFL uses injuries as an excuse every season, and it isn't always justified, but in the case of the 2018 Eagles, it's legitimate. Football Outsiders has a statistic called Adjusted Games Lost (AGL), that basically measures the number of starts lost to injury. The bottom line is that the 2018 Eagles lost the 2nd most starts to injury in the entire league last year, had the 2nd most starts lost by any team that made the playoffs in the last SIX years (2015 Redskins #1), the most starts lost of any team that won a playoff game in that time, and were #10 (out of 192 overall, 32 teams times 6 seasons) in starts lost over this period. Simply put, injuries affected last year's team in a disproportionate way.
Third, Philly was probably better than its 10-8 overall record. The Eagles were a play or two per game from being anywhere from 17-1 to 3-15 in those games (an unusual number of games were decided by one score or less), but four losses in particular stand out as misleading:
-the Tennessee game that should have been won on 4th and 15 in OT (thanks, Corey Graham!)
-the Minnesota game that turned on Linval Joseph's 64 yard fumble return (has to be a record for “Longest Touchdown Scored By A 330 Pound Man”)
-the Panthers game that should have ended on 4th and 10
-the Dallas game where the officials goofed on the game opening fumble AND Dallas somehow hit a 62 yard FG
In fairness, there was a game or two that Philly was probably fortunate to win. My brother and I had tickets to the NYG game on Thanksgiving weekend and nearly went home at halftime; it was one of the worst halves of football Philly has ever played. Atlanta fans might have something to say about the season opening game as well. My belief is that Philly basically was a 10 or 11 win team last year but caught some genuine and unusual bad luck to finish with only nine wins.
Fourth, last year reminds us that the NFL season really begins on Thanksgiving weekend. I've been of the opinion for a long time that if a team is in the hunt by then, they have a chance. There's a number of reasons for this (colder weather, more meaningful division games often scheduled at this point, teams with better depth and coaching really distinguish themselves late in the year, etc.). I contend that records achieved after this point are more descriptive than the overall season's record. Of course, Philly was 5-1 over that stretch.
Finally, if you had told me last August that our season would end in a hard fought, six point playoff loss to New Orleans, I'd have been satisfied (or at least not too disappointed) with that.
You can probably tell that I think our 9-7 record probably didn't capture this team effectively. However, just as it was premature to bury this team after ten games, it's probably a little optimistic to build our projections on the last month of the season. Let's not forget how well the Eagles finished the year (until Alshon dropped the ball, anyway), but remember that they had a couple really grim moments in them as well. The 2018 Eagles were basically in line, from a game to game performance perspective, with the previous two Doug Pederson versions. In 2016 they won 7 games but were probably as good as an average 10 win team. In 2017 they won 13 but probably were closer to an 11-5 team (in the regular season, in the regular season anyway). And as we've seen, the 2018 team likely could have had 10 or 11 wins again. Averaging ten or eleven wins per year might not sounds like the most exciting trend, but consider that only the Steelers and Patriots have won at that rate over the last couple decades. Sustained success, even marginal success, is very difficult in the league.
Enough about last season! The next two installments will look at the 2019 Eagles' roster, and the schedule for this season.
2019 Unit Grades
Let's revisit our old “unit grades” conversations, with the 2019 roster. As a reminder, here is the scale I use:
9-10: the unit belongs in the conversation for “best in league”
7-8: Really good, maybe can use some work
4-6: mediocre to average
1-3: weak to awful
The units I look at: QB, SKILL, OL, DL, LB, DB, ST. Here we go:
QB grade: 8.5/10. I'd go higher, BUT I'm still a little concerned about what exactly we have with Carson Wentz. We know that if he's healthy and right, he's as good as anyone in the league. We also know that he's seldom healthy, and that's the #1 storyline for this team, as we all know. This was only the second time that Wentz has had a relatively healthy offseason, and last time he was an All Pro. I guess what I'm saying is that I like his chances to get back to that level, but I wouldn't bet on it. As far as the rest of the depth chart goes, Josh McCown isn't Nick Foles but has that vibe (good HS basketball player, career backup, Eagles talked him out of retirement, born again Christian). He isn't the best backup in the league but probably belongs in that conversation. It's also the best team situation he's had, by far. The QB3 situation is interesting, although my money is that they'll keep Sudfeld active (IR would keep him off the active roster for 8 weeks). Thorson is headed to the PS; I actually believed in him as a QB prospect, but I haven't seen so many inaccurate passes since the days of Tim Tebow. The only thing that was missing was Tebow's scrambling and Skip Bayless in a cheering outfit on the sideline.
SKILL grade: 9.5/10. There are other sources that have pointed this out, but there's a strong case to be made that Philly has the best collection of skill talent in the league. This group would be a 10/10 for me if it weren't for the lack of at least one true superstar (depends on your feelings about Zach Ertz). In my opinion, the depth here more than makes up for that “deficiency”. Philly should be able to deploy four Pro Bowlers (Ertz, Jackson*, Jeffrey, Howard), four more players that were recently drafted very highly (Agholor, Sanders, Goedert, JJAW), perhaps the best all purpose RB of all time (Sproles**), and another RB that might have been the offensive MVP of their playoff run if it weren't for Nick Foles (Corey Clement). There are no formations or offensive styles that the Eagles won't be able to run out, and no personnel mismatches that they won't be able to exploit. The depth not only will allow everyone to stay fresh, but should also allow them to absorb injuries pretty well. There will be some good players that don't make the roster; it's a problem few other teams will have. Other teams may get more press for their skill guys, but there's a difference between having a couple transcendent talents (I'm thinking of NO with Thomas and Kamara and Dallas with Elliott and Cooper) and being able to run out five quality guys on every play. What the heck, let's make an adjustment:
SKILL grade (updated): 10/10.
*Wentz has never had a deep threat like Jackson, and he's sorely needed one. Such a player will open up things with this offense that haven't yet been seen in the Pederson/Wentz era. They know this, and have made an effort but it hasn't worked out (Torrey Smith never really got going and Mike Wallace was hurt). I read a great piece on Jackson's impact on the teams he's played on, and it's an exciting read.
**Earlier I was tempted to think of Darren Sproles as being washed, but did you know that he has fewer than 1,900 career touches? Obviously that's still a lot, but fewer than guys like Adrian Peterson, Shady McCoy and Frank Gore. Had he played last year, LeVeon Bell would be on that list as well. If he's healthy, Sproles should be fresh.
OL grade: 10/10. Still a premier unit, there are four All Pro talents on the starting line, including two probable starters on the 2010's All-Decade team (Peters and Kelce). Like the skill guys, the depth that separates this group as much as anything. Our second unit consists (as of right now) of a top prospect from April in Dillard, two starters from our SB winning group in Big V and Wisniewski and our two physical specimens from last year's draft. I agree with the captain on the potential of Toth the Army Man; he'll likely be a PS guy if they can get him there. The two UDFA guards may factor in as well. Of course, rumored trades and cuts may have an impact here but not enough to change the grade.
DL grade: 9/10. Philly's top six of Cox-Graham-Jackson-Barnett-Jernigan-Curry is as good as it gets. Hall is definitely making the team; he was the best player on the field last night. I think 3-4 of the Sweat-Miller-Hester-Ridgeway group will make it as well; I'd be fine if they all do. The lower rungs of the depth chart should include a good mix of capable vets and high upside young guys. The only thing that prevents another perfect grade is the potential for an injury or two to wreck the DE group; as much as I like the young guys there, not many beyond Graham have much game experience*.
*Let's talk about these Clowney rumors for a moment. My personal thinking would make an offer of a #3 and a player (Houston is desperate for OT and RB help, and we have a surplus of talent at those spots). We know the Texans aren't in a great spot to make demands, and Clowney is a guy that can help the Birds. If the bidding gets much higher than that I'd let it pass.
LB grade: 5/10. Zach Brown and Nigel Bradham are quality starters. After that, there's a run of decent depth guys and prospects. KGH may join the other two I mentioned as a top flight contributor; it's too bad he's hurt for now. Fort, Gerry, and Edwards have a good shot at making the team but are unknown quantities. I like Singleton to make the 53 as well; he seems to just get it. Like last year, you could probably talk me into any grade from 3 to 7, so I'll just split the difference. It isn't a position group that Philly puts a great deal of emphasis on.
DB grade: 6/10. On paper, this grade should be higher. They have a good blend of talent, depth and experience at this spot, so what's the problem? There's only one player in the entire group that I have confidence in to both be healthy and a good performer, and that happens to be their oldest starting DB (Jenkins). Everyone else is either a health risk or a performance mystery, or both. I do think we're due for a couple young guys to break out (Maddox, Jones, Douglas are good candidates). Cyprien, Scandrick and Sendejo are solid vets that I expect to contribute. Who knows what we'll get from injured contributors like Jalen Mills or Crevon LeBlanc? Ronald Darby is a guy that in theory should be a star but I keep forgetting he's even on the roster, he's been hurt so much. This unit was awful last year but can only improve, and will improve if for no other reason than it can't be as injured as it was. Of course, improvement could be just going from “awful” to “adequate”. This is the biggest question mark on the roster for me. They won the SB with an adequate unit two years ago, so we might have enough here, but the other side of that coin is that the potential exists for a season-wrecking disappointment as well.
ST grade: 8/10. K Jake Elliott, P Cameron Johnston and LS Rick Lovato are names that we're mostly not familiar with because you generally don't know the names of the specialists unless they've made a major mistake. I don't think we have any real stars in this group (although Johnston had a great 2018, tied for #3 in net punting last year) but everyone is a solid performer. They'll need to unearth some return guys but they generally don't have problems finding them. The coverage units are typically excellent and will benefit from a healthy Mack Hollins. This unit has been merely above average instead of excellent the last couple years but I think they're due for some improvement.
Since we're here...
Coaching/Management grade: 9/10. It's way too early to say that Pederson is a “great” coach, but he's definitely a very good one. Jeff Stoutland, Corey Undlin and Dave Fipp are elite position coaches. The team's turnaround last year was largely a function of great coaching. Most of us recognize the job that Howie Roseman has done from the front office. As long as Belichick is around, it'll be hard to give any other management group a perfect 10, but Philly's comes close.
Top to bottom, this is still a premier roster, and you could make the case it has more overall talent than the Eagles team that won the SB. Of course there are questions (Will Wentz stay healthy? Will the back seven hold up?), but most teams have a few questions. Check it out:
-How will the Packers adjust to a new head coach? I read that they hadn't begun working on play calling through the headset as recently as last week. There's continuity issues there.
-How will the Patriots replace Gronk? A compelling case could be made that he was their most important player since he got into the league, even over Brady. Look up Brady's stats with and without Gronk and the Patriot's record with and without him. They never won a SB without him, since he came into the league.
-Can Dallas and the Rams stay healthy? Both team's top 12-15 players are as good as anyone's, but after that there's a steep drop off.
-Both the Steelers and Chiefs lost very important skill guys; how do they respond?
-Are the Browns actually good?
-Is Drew Brees washed?
You get the idea. Yes, Philly has questions, but all the teams do. Here's my bottom line: on a neutral field with even health, rest, etc., there are no teams that I'd favor over the Birds.
2019 Schedule Overview
One thing I miss about the Andy Reid days was that he had been with us for so long that there were certain tendencies you could predict (16-2 in games after a bye, usually finished 4-1 after Thanksgiving, things like that). We haven't seen enough from the Dougie P era to make that kind of prediction with any sort of accuracy, so I thought I'd just go game by game through the 2019 slate and offer some thoughts.
Week 1: Washington. The Deadskins are going to be a dumpster fire this year. Their most talented offensive player isn't going to play for them and wants a trade. They got rid of their #1 receiver and have no one else who's proven to be dependable. Their RB group consists of rookies and 34 year old Adrian Peterson. They actually have the foundation of a pretty good defense, but were just #15 in PPG allowed last year and don't have a defensively minded head coach. Oh, and their QB situation might be the worst in football. Frankly, matching last year's seven win total might be an overly ambitious goal for them. We've beaten Washington at home the last two years (and four out of six), and I like our odds to do it again.
Week 2: @Atlanta. Due to the tricks of the schedule, Philly has played Atlanta all three years of the Pederson era, once in each season of the year (summer in 2018, fall in 2016 and winter in 2017). For whatever reason our defense has done VERY well against one of the best offensive teams in the league, holding them to just 12.3 points/game. More interestingly, the Falcons have only marched the length of the field ONCE in three games (defined here as a drive ending in a touchdown that began in Atlanta territory). Of course, all three games were in Philly and noted Julio Jones Kryptonite Jalen Mills will be inactive, so maybe none of this matters. Seems like a toss up to me.
Week 3: Detroit. Has there ever been a more overrated QB that Matt Stafford? He was the top QB in his high school class, the #1 overall pick in his draft and one of the highest paid NFL players ever. He's never won a playoff game or a division title, and only made one Pro Bowl. His career stats are nothing but average (7.1 yards/att, 1.8 TD/INT, 88.4 QBR). He's had at least four OL drafted in the first round since he's been there, two such tight ends and three separate running backs that have had at least 1,000 scrimmage yards in a season. Oh, and some guy name Calvin Johnson (not to mention several other quality receivers). Bottom line: it's hard to match up the performance with the reputation, especially considering the underrated supporting cast that Stafford has had. On top of my lack of confidence in the QB, there's no reason to get excited about the coaching or management here either. Let's pick this as a win for the Birds.
Week 4: @Green Bay. The Packers have a very underrated roster, top to bottom and of course, Aaron Rodgers. They also have a really underachieving program; it might come as a shock that the Packers are just 33-30-1 the last four years, which isn't bad but might not match up with the reputation they've enjoyed. There's also some buzz that Aaron Rodgers might actually be washed, and isn't in sync with his coaches. That being said, this is perhaps one of three or four games that I could see Philly being an underdog in. Let's call it a toss up again.
Week 5: NYJ. Fun fact: did you know that the Eagles have NEVER lost to the Jets? Look it up; we're 10-for-10 in the regular season. The Jets have somehow played in three AFC title games in my lifetime (!?!), but outside of those seasons (1997, 2009, 2010) have been an unqualified disaster. They're like the Cowboys of the AFC, only without the history. This is a team that handed out about $140 million to a high mileage RB and a MLB in the offseason and still looks to Joe Namath for positive nostalgia. In all seriousness, the Jets have about nine players that I'd be excited about as a fan, and the rest is replacement level or junk. They'll go about as far as Sam Darnold can carry them, which might not be far at all with a terrible WR situation and a bad OL. This smells like a win, especially at home.
Week 6: @Minnesota. I have no sense of how to call this game. Pederson is 2-1 against Zimmer (average score 26-13 in favor of Philly). Like the Atlanta series, all three game have been in the Linc. Minnesota is likely a better roster than they were last year and could be dangerous, especially at home (Zimmer is 28-12 there since he was hired). I'm also recalling humiliating and somewhat inexplicable losses to the Vikings in 2010, 2013 and 2018. Who can say? What are your thoughts?
Week 7: @Dallas. See notes on the second Dallas game, later.
Week 8: @Buffalo. The Bills are similar to the Redskins in that they have the pieces for a top ten defense but not much on the offensive side. This could be one of those nightmare game where the score stays low, and scramble-y QB Josh Allen makes enough plays to keep the Bills in the game (plus the ageless Frank Gore breaking both tackles and hearts). That said, our DL vs. their OL might be one of the biggest mismatches on paper for the entire season. Since we don't have much history against Buffalo (this will be the first meeting in the Pederson era), the only statistical info I have for you is Doug's record on the road (.4783 W/L%), his record in October (.6154), vs. the AFC (.6667) and vs. sub-.500 teams, which likely will apply (.8500). Average it out and Philly has about a 65% chance to win, if prior history is worth anything.
Week 9: Chicago. The Bears had a strong team in 2018 and are likely to be strong again. However, there are numerous factors that should have them tracking down: 1) they snuck up on people last year and won't be able to do so again, 2) last year they had a fourth place schedule; a first place schedule this year, 3) Remember the Adjusted Games Lost metric we talked about earlier? Chicago ranked the third healthiest in the league last year, good luck maintaining that, 4) they didn't have a first round pick this spring, thanks to the Mack trade. Philly still was good enough to play competitively with the Bears on their field in January, and now will have the advantage of better health (we hope) and the home field.
Week 10: BYE. By this point it seems reasonable that Philly could have six or seven wins. I think a record of 4-5 would be the worst case scenario, and the best case scenario would have them be undefeated.
Week 11: New England. In recent years we've beaten the Almighty Patriots in Boston (38-35 in 2015) and of course on a neutral field in Super Bowl LII. Now we get a crack at them in Philly. It's possible this version of the Patriots will be weaker than those two, for a variety of reasons (No Gronk, Brady will age eventually, etc.). The 2018 Patriots were a relatively weak team, for a Super Bowl winner. Of course, November has been a good month for the Patriots (24-7 this decade, including 11-5 on the road). I like but don't love our chances in this game.
Week 12: Seattle. We've played Seattle four times in the Pete Carroll era (once under Reid, once under Kelly and twice under Pederson); four Eagle losses by 13 PPG. That includes the worst game Philly played in the Super Bowl year, a 24-10 clunker on the road. I don't like Pete Carroll, but it's hard to argue that he isn't one of the game's best coaches. I also don't like that this game comes after the Patriots game; some letdown potential here. On the bright side, Philly is the more talented side and will play this game at home.
Week 13: @Miami. This Dolphins team reminds me of the Cleveland Browns group from 2016, and the Process-era Sixers; they're tanking and pretending not to be. Miami has been a train wreck since Dan Marino left; they only seem to be good by accident. A Philly loss here would be an upset, no matter what else happens.
Week 14: NYG. This has been an incredibly lopsided rivalry lately, as you likely know. Philly leads 27-14 since the turn of the century, 22-10 since Eli Manning was drafted and 14-4 this decade. Philly is 8-2 at home against the Midgets, and has won five straight. You've read enough to know the mess that the New York organization is in. We should feel good about our chances here.
Week 15: @Washington. This decade there have been nine Eagles games that met the following criteria: 1) were played in December, 2) were NFC East games, 3) one team was eliminated, the other was in playoff contention and 4) the starters didn't sit. This situation should apply here, and the good news is that the contending team went 7-2 with an average scoring margin of +7.2 PPG. It seems like a narrow field of criteria, and it is, but my takeaway is that the classic “late season divisional trap game” isn't as big of a threat as it seems.
Week 16: Dallas. I'm not sure why these Dallas games are so compelling; is it the bitter rivalry (one of the best in sports)? Is it the fact that these teams have owned this division over the years (combined for 13 out of the last 18 division titles, and 19 out of 27)? Let me give you a few stats from this rivalry in the Jason Garrett era: there have been 15 games in which both teams played their starters. The Cowboys have a slight 8-7 lead, the favorite is 10-5 (no surprise there), but the road team is 11-4. In the six seasons of this era that one or the other team has won the NFC East, the team that won the last game in which all starters played is the team that won the division. This likely means that, unless by some miracle the Giants or Redskins win the division OR unless Philly or Dallas has clinched by Week 16, the SECOND game will be the deciding contest. We have two competing narratives to guess at the result of this game: the success of the road team in this series seems to favor Dallas, but I do think that Philly will be favored and the favorite does predictably well. I like Philly to win this game (and the division) for the following reasons:
They're the better team. I took the time to go through both team's 53 man roster (slow time of year in the office) and rate each player on a 1-10 scale (1 being a practice squad caliber player, 10 being a HoF type player in his prime). Guess who's roster comes off higher? The average Eagles starter rates a 7.05; the average Cowboy starter scores a 6.32. More tellingly, Philly's average player in the three deep scores a 5.19, Dallas' scores a 4.44. That second stat really matters for this late season game; not all of either team's starters will be healthy by Christmas (hold this thought). There's no reason to think that Dallas has the better roster, no matter how it's sliced.
Dallas may already be eliminated by this point. By week 16, they will have had road trips to the Saints, Patriots and Bears while hosting Philly, Green Bay, Minnesota and the Rams. Coupled with the rest of the schedule (Garrett has a 23-11 record against the rest of the NFC East, meaning there's a 70% likelihood that they'll lose at least one of the three non-Eagle division games before this point), it's hard to see Dallas coming in with anything better than a 9-5 record. If Philly is 11-3 or better, they likely would have the tiebreaker math taken care of before the game even starts.
You likely know this already, but no team has repeated as NFC East champ since Philly in 2004. Dallas hasn't done it since 1996. Plenty of team better than the Cowboys have failed to do what they're trying to do.
Returning to the injury issue, Dallas was reasonably healthy in 2018, finishing with an average score in the AGL metric we've talked about. What that doesn't quite show was how healthy the key contributors were for them. Of their dozen or so key players, they lost a total of 29 games (out of 183 total), and most of those were covered by always-injured Sean Lee, and the non-football illness of Travis Frederick. What I'm saying is that a team so dependent on their top tier is unlikely to have similar injury luck again. Even with this good health, they still barely managed to win the division.
My bottom line on the 2019 version of Eagles/Cowboys: it seems eminently reasonable to say that the two teams will split the games, but that Philly ends up with the better record overall.
Week 17: @NYG. By this point the Birds will likely either be resting their starters or will be eliminated from the playoffs, but in case neither of these things pan out, see the Week 15 Washington comments above.
Add it all up, and I think the Eagles are in line for a win total of 9-12. Anything less than that is unimaginable (the team likes their coach and each other, and injuries are unlikely to do worse to this team than they've done the last two years), and anything more than that would take a bit of unforeseeable good luck. I've made the point that the Eagles have basically been a 10 or 11 win team under Pederson, and I think that's a very fair pick for them again.
One more significant thing to keep in mind is to not take September to heart, no matter what happens. Joe Paterno said “There are a lot of September champions.” The reverse is true as well (none of the 2016 or 2018 Patriots or the 2017 Eagles looked good at all in September). Early games are the most susceptible influence by quirky strategies and minor breakout players. Some teams (like Philly, it should be noted) are still dealing with lingering injuries, and figuring out when certain players will be 100% is a fool's errand. All said, if the Eagles struggle (or dominate) right of the gate, don't let it get to you one way or another. It's a long season.
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