[NOTE: I'm providing this as a reference point for the purposes of comparing where we are right now with where we've been over the last few years]
With Week 1 on the horizon, let's do a sprint-through preview for the 2021 Philadelphia Eagles season:
UNIT GRADES
QB (4/10): The Minshew trade pushes this grade higher; he's secretly a competent QB. His career statline isn't particularly special until you realize he's been working in the black hole of talent that was the Jaguar's offense the last couple seasons. It's entirely possible that, in a competent offense with competent teammates, he'll be a solid QB. At least, he should be considered a prospect similar to Hurts. There's a decent chance, better than 50-50, that one of these guys emerges as a sold NFL starter in this offense. Finally, thank heaven we didn't trade for DeShaun Watson. I'd be hard pressed to justify trading much of anything (much less the king's ransom that Houston was rumored to be asking) for a QB that's already making top dollar and has such glaring character questions.
SKILL (4/10): Perhaps a too low of a score, but the skill group is more promise and potential than actual production as of right now. Maybe Miles Sanders is secretly Shady McCoy and maybe Devonta Smith will be a Marvin Harrison clone and perhaps Quez Watkins will be a poor man's Tyreek Hill and possibly Dallas Goedert finally emerges as a top 5 TE... you get the idea. On paper, there is plenty of positive potential. If some of it is realized, this score will be too low.
OL (8/10): This is an awkward group to grade. The colossal “if” here is health; IF we get above average or even average health, the OL is likely a 10/10. The starting group of Mailata-Seumalo-Kelce-Brooks-Johnson is elite. The second unit, let by young prospects like Jack Driscoll and especially Landon Dickerson provide depth and upside. HOWEVER, Jordan Mailata has gone on IR twice in three years, Seumalo had a season ending injury last year, Brandon Brooks has had three season enders in a row now, Lane Johnson has been on and off the injury report a LOT over the last few years, Dickerson had season ending injuries in four of five college seasons, and Jack Driscoll is already on IR. Also, Kelce, Brooks and Johnson are all on the wrong side of 30. The continuing presence of Jeff Stoutland will always keep this unit afloat, but health is a significant concern.
DL (7/10): Like the OL, this group should carry a higher grade on paper. To get there, they'll need to see Graham, Cox and Kerrigan stave off Father Time, and some of the young guys emerge. It seems like we've been waiting on both Josh Sweat and Derek Barnett to break out for years now; neither have contracts for next year, so now is the time. Milton Williams is an intriguing prospect. Reports seem to peg Javon Hargrave for a breakout season. Once again, we see that if the group hits their ceiling, the grade will be too low.
LB (2/10): I don't want to talk about this. Simply put, I doubt that many if any teams would be interested in trading for any of our linebackers. The very best we can hope for here is “competence”. Quick note: saying that Philly never collects LB talent is a bit of an exaggeration. Their Super Bowl season began with a starting LB group of Mychal Kendricks, Jordan Hicks and Nigel Braham, which wasn't elite but was certainly better than most of the groups they've run out since then.
DB (4/10): The Eagles are likely to play a lot of nickel this year, so they'll be offering a starting group of Slay-Nelson-Maddox-McCloud-Harris, which will inspire (or intimidate) no one but should at least be capable. We really need to hope for both capability and good health, as the depth behind those five is a horror show of inexperience and lack of talent.
COACHING (?): Obviously this is a complete unknown. What keeps me cautiously optimistic is the fact that Jeff Lurie has generally done a good job with these hires. He's hired and fired four coaches but only one of those (Ray Rhodes) was canned with a losing record. The bottom line (fortunately or unfortunately) is that we won't really know for sure about Nick Sirianni for a couple years.
SCHEDULE
Simply put, this year's slate is brutal. As of now it's hard to see how the Birds will be favored in more than a handful of games. They do get four games combined against the bottom feeders of Detroit and the New York teams, but three of those are on the road. The Falcons, Panthers and Raiders are probably peers of the Eagles but all three are on the road. The Chiefs, 49ers, Bucs, Saints and Chargers are all likely contenders (of different qualities) and we get them all. The remaining five games (Broncos and two each against the Cowboys and WFT) may well see the Eagles as underdogs. These schedules always look different in terms of difficulty after the season starts, so the situation will probably not be as grim as I'm portraying, but finding more than eight or nine wins against this slate requires a lot more faith in our team than what I currently have. There just isn't enough prime and proven talent.
BOTTOM LINE
The major inflection points I see are:
Will Philly get improved QB play?
Will the new coaching staff work out?
Will the skill group hit closer to their ceiling or their floor?
Will the health in the trenches hold up?
Will the back seven be adequate?
The Eagles will need positive answers to three or four of these questions to contend for a playoff spot. I see a losing record this year (think 5-8 wins), but the goal for 2021 needs to be focused more on unearthing and developing young talent, which is well within reach.
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