I have a few notes that are worth some discussion at this early date in the season:
Where are we with Jalen Hurts? It seems that Eagles fandom is evenly divided between the "Hurts is awesome and no one should question it!" and the "Hurts has regressed and we're in trouble for giving him a big contract!" camps. I'm certainly not immune to overreaction, but the truth, as usual, is somewhere in between. First off, Jalen is better than what we've seen through three weeks. Here's a breakdown of his leaguewide ranks (min. 16 starts) over his first two years as a starts (2021, 2022):
Passer Rating: 13th
QBR: 7th
ANY/A: 6th
PFF: 3rd
Int %: 7th
On-target throw %: 9th
It's clear that Hurst performed, at a minimum, like a top ten caliber QB. But, let's look at these same numbers for the first three games of 2023 (all ranks out of 34 qualifying QBs):
Passer Rating: 22nd
QBR: 23rd
ANY/A: 24th
PFF: 22nd
Int %: 26th
On-target throw %: 33rd
There's an obvious regression there that's not easy to explain. First off, I don't think that it's because we overrated Jalen over those first two years; the sample size we have for him as a successful QB is ten times larger than this season's three game sample. Here are some possible components that could account for the difference: 1) a three game sample size is small enough to distort any analysis; as previously pointed out, Jalen has had some bad games before. Sometimes good players just have bad stretches; Hurts has, after all, outperformed both Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence so far despite his issues. 2) The run of defensive coaches that the Birds have faced so far (Belichick, Brian Flores, Todd Bowles) is as tough as any in the young season. It's worth pointing out that Philly has scored more points than any other team that the Patriots, Vikings and Bucs have faced this year (a group that includes the Dolphins), although turnovers have unquestionably helped with that. 3) Two of the three games so far have been on the road, and in bad weather conditions. Jalen was also sick during the Tampa game.
It's certainly way too early for some of the serious angst we've seen from Philly fans, but to say there's no cause for concern isn't right either. The positives are there (offense is productive overall, Hurts is #6 leaguewide in On-Target Pass %, Jalen has accounted for 38 total first downs, tied for 16th among QBs). Let's see how things develop over the next couple months.
Another game, another clock-and-morale killing Eagles drive. Since Nick Sirianni and Co. got the message that this is an elite rushing offense, no one has mastered the art of the long, soul-crushing scoring drive quite like the Birds. Their opening drive of the second half was their 20th NFL touchdown drive of at least 10 plays and at least 75 yards since the start of last season; no one else has more than 16 in that time span. That stat probably undersells how good Philly has gotten at this; the ability to say "You know what, let's run the ball on every play, kill half a quarter and the opponent's spirit and get a touchdown" practically at will is a weapon that few can match. Their final drive produced no points (by design) but had a similar effect; it was their 11th drive of at least 15 plays in that time span. No other team has more than six.
Some love for the much-improved special teams! Last season, as we all remember, the Birds fielded one of the worst ST groups in the league. Had it not been for the continually excellent work of Jake Elliott, we may well have been the bottom group in the NFL. This year, while not yet elite, the unit is much improved. Elliott himself is "only" #14 in Kicking Points Above Expectation (dragged down by one missed XP), but his brilliant long kicks make him as responsible for getting us to 3-0 as any single Eagle. Britain Covey's 18.83 punt return average is #2 in the young NFL season (and he's #6 among qualifiers over his career). Philly has only allowed 8.0 yards per punt return, which is better than the leaguewide average of 10.1. Too early to say what we have in new punter Braden Mann, but he can't possibly be as bad as Siposs, right? Mann did turn in arguably the greatest single season by a college punter in history during the 2018 campaign.
Commentary on this weekend's game. All the signs point to this being a comfortable Eagles win. As noted above, despite some inconsistencies, the Birds have done a great job in outscoring what their opponent's defense typically allows (Philly has averaged 28 PPG; their opponents have only allowed 19.3 PPG in non-Eagle games). This bodes well for Jalen and Co against a Washington team that's allowed 28.7 PPG so far. I think the Bird's defense matches up pretty well with the Commander offense. Look for our pass rush to play a big part in keeping Howell uncomfortable. This Washington team can never be overlooked (I can't remember the last time that I truly felt we were the inferior side, yet we seem to drop one to them every year including last season), but the Eagles are justifiably an eight point favorite. I think Philly get Jalen right in this game and wins, something like 34-20.
Side note; a win this weekend gets Philly to 4-0 for the second consecutive season. This would be the first time in franchise history that the Birds have opened 4-0 in back to back seasons.
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