A few thoughts on where we are with the 2024 season, in no particular order:
Defensive resurgence. Much has been made of the statistical turnaround tha the defense has made since the bye, but most are putting it down to the admittedly weak slate of opposing teams the Eagles have played since that time. To be sure, that's fair, but even accounting for that soft schedule, the turnaround has been impressive. Consider that the the Browns, Bengals, Giants and Jaguars have averaged almost exactly 20 PPG in games against all other opponents; in their games against Philly they only managed 44 offensive points TOTAL (11.0 PPG). Nine points per game below expectation? Sign me up!
Why the turnaround? I'd hazard two theories: first, the team is more comfortable with Fangio's scheme the more they play it, and Vic himself is more comfortable with how to use his personnel. Second, don't downplay how much Cooper DeJean has helped the secondary. He's bee special and is on an All-Rookie pace. If current trends continue, we may be saying the same thing about Jalyx Hunt by the end of the year (more on him in a bit).
Will the real Nick Sirianni please stand up? We've talked about Nick far more than most of us would like to, but it's hard to be too upset with the results overall. The Eagles, at 7-2, are doing at least as well as anyone could have reasonably expected them to by this point in the season. Fletcher Cox's ringing endorsement and the fact that Nick keeps climbing the all-time W/L % rankings add support. I have no idea how much credit to give Nick for the fact that he's now surrounded by older, more experienced coaches, but I think that move has paid some dividends.
Jalen Hurts' climb back to respectability. As we recall, after the first four turnover-filled games, Jalen ranked in the bottom five of nearly every QB stat you could find. How are things going now? Check it out (all ranks out of 34 qualified passers):
PFF: 16th
on-target pass %: 16th
success rate: 13th
ANY/A: 11th
QBR: 8th
passer rating: 5th
bad throw %: 3rd
Not all is as we'd like it to be but the simple fact is that Jalen's year is on an upward trajectory. I expect we'll see him in the top ten if not top five of these stats by the end of the year, barring injuries. Speaking of...
Have the Eagles benefited from extraordinary good health? In a word, no. To reiterate a stat that I've shared several times already, Lane Johnson, Jordan Mailata, Dallas Goedert, AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Mekhi Becton, Cooper DeJean and Darius Slay have combined to miss some or all of 22 games combined so far. Thankfully, none of these injuries have been season-ending, and tonight's game will be the first time that all of these players will be available this season.
Saquan Barkley for OPOY. There's some buzz that Barkley is an MVP candidate, which I don't see at all, but there will be a case for Offensive Player of the Year if he stays on his current trajectory. His current mark of 127.7 yards from scrimmage/game leads the entire NFL.
On the skill guys in general. So far, the big 4 of Brown-Smith-Goedert-Barkley have only been fully available for two games. In both of these, the Eagles hung 34 points on respectable defenses (Green Bay and Dallas).
The Eagles' underrated pass rush. Much has been made of the lack of performance of this group, but the advanced numbers have a little good news for us. Philly's top four of Graham, Sweat, Nolan Smith and Bryce Huff all rank in the 60th percentile or better of PFF's edge rusher ranks. Nothing too exciting about that as none are top ten type guys yet (and of course, PFF grades are not the final word on a player's performance), but to have four productive rushers is not bad. I should add that Jalyx Hunt would be in that territory as well, if he had played enough snaps.
Philly's young DBs continue to impress. Blankenship, Quinyon Mitchell and DeJean all rank in the 75th percentile (or higher) in passer rating allowed (as do Zach Baun and Avonte Maddox). Isaiah Rodgers would as well, had he played enough snaps. The pivot to a young and talented secondary has gone very well so far.
Prediction for tonight: I can't say why exactly, but I think Philly wins tonight and pretty easily. One objective advantage would be situational (Washington off a tough and physical loss, Philly off an easy win and Philly at home in prime time). The Birds have generally done well in prime time under Sirianni. I also think that this game tends to go in the opposite direction from expectations; in the past we expected Philly to destroy Washington and the games have turned into rock fights. Maybe it's different this time around. I think the Eagles will be able to run at will on this defense, and if they get out ahead early I'm not sure this young Washington team has what it takes to pass their way back into the game. I think the Birds win by more than a touchdown to take a commanding divisional lead.
Comments