This NFC Championship matchup is nearly as compelling as a game can be on this stage; it's possible that a rubber match with Dallas would have been at the top of the wish list but getting the 49ers at home has got to be a close second. There are so many ways that this game can be unpacked, I'm not sure it's possible (or wise) to even try to cover them all, so I'm going to limit myself to a few of the key areas. Without further ado, here are my thoughts:
Brock Purdy vs. the Eagles defense. We all know that the former Mr. Irrelevant has not yet lost as a starter in his brief career. Let's take a look at the opposition he's faced:
Dolphins (didn't start but played nearly the entire game)
Buccaneers
@Seahawks
Commanders
@Raiders
Cardinals
Seahawks
Cowboys
Not exactly a murderer's row. Of those teams listed, only Dallas has an above-average pass defense, and only Seattle has a comparable home field environment to what Philly will offer on Sunday. In those two games, Purdy managed 431 passing yards, lost 21 on sacks, gained 6 rushing yards and passed for two scores. There were no turnovers, but worth noting was Purdy's bad throw percentage in these games (18.2%), which would have ranked 8th worst in the NFL if it were his number for the entire season. That tells me that Purdy put the ball in harm's way more frequently than usual in these situations. The bottom line: against good defenses and in tough environments, Purdy was solid but unspectacular, and quite possibly lucky. This is something to watch on Sunday.
49ers front seven vs. Eagles offensive line. This is probably the matchup to watch, as arguably these units represent the top strengths for each team. Nick Bosa is the real terror, arguably the best defensive player in the league. Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw are both top shelf linebackers. Of further concern is Lane Johnson's injury; how will he handle Bosa & Co.? Other than that, I do wonder how much of a threat San Francisco poses going up the middle; their top DT is probably Arik Armstead, who is good but not great. Establishing the run will be a critical step for success when Philly has the ball, and to do that I think they'll have to go straight up the middle.
Eagles front seven vs. 49ers offensive line. The 49ers have Trent Williams, who may well be the finest offensive lineman in the league. The rest of their OL is pretty mediocre, and I've heard a SF beat writer express his concern about it already. I do think that the mix of talent that Philly will throw out in the middle of the line will force SF's absurdly good running game to bounce outside more than they are used to. I also look for the Birds to be able to generate pressure on Purdy up the middle.
49ers skill guys vs. Eagles back seven. SF has what is easily the most unique and possibly the most talented skill guys in the league (McCaffrey, Samuel, Kittle, Aiyuk, etc). I do not think that the 49ers will be able to make much progress against Philly's top-shelf CB combo, and as I mentioned, running straight up the gut isn't likely to work consistently either. However, we've seen the Birds struggle in all kinds of ways with passing between the hashes, both to the slot and the tight ends. In my opinion, Kittle is the finest TE in the game and he'll be a problem all game long. To slow these guys down the Eagles will need to limit the run game and get some early and serious pressure on Purdy. Doing these things will limit the amount of “stuff” the 49ers can throw at Philly, and will keep Purdy out of rhythm. Allowing all the tricky junk that Kyle Shanahan loves to throw out to take root, and/or allowing Purdy to build confidence in the first half will make for a long afternoon for the defense. I think the Birds will need to grab the high ground in these areas, and do it early.
Jalen Hurts. Our QB is still not fully healthy, and as mentioned he'll be chased around by some high quality linebackers all afternoon. I do think that SF will be headhunting Hurts on Sunday, meaning that his toughness and pain management will be critical. Don't look for too many yards on the ground for Hurts; his mobility may be more valuable in keeping pass plays alive.
Big plays. In terms of making the big play down the field, I believe that Philly has a decided advantage here. I think Philly's pass catching trio of Brown-Smith-Goedert is easily the best that SF will have seen this year, and the 49ers CB group is pretty mediocre. If Hurts can stay poised and manage the pocket well (which has not been a problem for most of the year), there will be some plays to be made downfield. On the other side, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are dangerous players, but neither are true deep threats, and Philly's CB combo is one of the best two or three pairs in the league. These facts mean that SF may be playing in a box offensively, even more than they are used to.
(By the way, the above holds true even if Avonte Maddox can't play, and if Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel are 100%. It seems that Maddox may play, and it turns out that McCaffrey and Samuel are not yet practicing).
Situational advantages. I think the biggest advantage that Philly may have just comes in how the game schedule sets up. Of course, this game will be played at home, but no one seems to be discussing that Philly will have a couple extra days of rest/preparation (one from playing the divisional round a day early, and another from the eight hour travel day that SF has). It’s nearly the equivalent of the “mini-bye” a team gets after they play the Thursday night game.
Something else from the “situational advantage” file: this may well be the last time that the Eagles’ “core four” of Brandon Graham, Jason Kelce, Fletcher Cox and Lane Johnson take the field at the Linc as a quartet. Of those four, only Johnson has a contract for next year. I suspect they’ll bring back as many as they can, but the probability that this is it for this group as a whole is likely not lost on them, or the team. Don’t discount the possibility of a significant emotional edge for the Birds on Sunday.
Eagles’ keys to victory. I think this really comes down to three facets:
1) Tackling. SF gets most of their big plays through catch-and-run scenarios and creativity in the run game. Continued good tackling from the Birds will limit this.
2) Forcing SF out of their element by pressuring Purdy and continually bouncing their runs to the outside. SF won’t get big downfield plays in their pass game (that’s not their style, and the Eagles’ corners are too good), but they’ll be more than happy to dink and dunk. Forcing the issue on defense will keep SF off balance.
3) Staying comfortable on offense by not forcing Jalen to be too much of a passer early in the game. It will not be easy to run the ball on the 49ers tough defense, but their DL can be had in the run game if Philly stays consistent and physical. If Philly has to drop Jalen back to pass too often too early, it’s going to be a long day.
Summary and prediction. This should be an excellent game between two of the very best rosters the NFL has to offer. The 49ers are one of the very few teams that have comparable talent to the Birds, across the roster. I think the home field will be huge for Philly, as will their overall advantage in the trenches (SF has arguably the best two linemen in the league in Williams and Bosa, but Philly has Pro Bowl caliber players all across both sides of the line). Even 49er fans admit that Philly has a notable advantage at quarterback. Better QB play, better line play, and home field advantage are too much for me to go against the Eagles, no matter what else. I’m calling for Philly in a thriller, something like 23-21.
Bonus AFC Championship game prediction. I really like the Bengals in this game. In my opinion, Kansas City has, by a decent margin, the weakest top-to-bottom roster of the four remaining teams (see my playoff preview for a few more details). I know they’re at home, but Mahomes’ ankle injury will probably limit his mobility, and if it does it pretty much rubs the Chief’s top advantage. Unless Mahomes is magically close to 100%, I think Cincinnati wins this game with relative ease.
Comments