CLICK HERE to see my comments on the Eagles’ 2-0 start, and some commentary on my methodology.
Welcome to Overreaction Season (also known as the first few weeks of the NFL calendar)!
I must admit, a small part of me almost hoped that the Birds would drop one of these last couple games; a 3-1 start would have given me a LOT of material for this column. As it stands, the Eagles’ 4-0 start is only matched by one other season in the “modern” era: 2004. Perhaps the best way to extract a meaningful conclusion is just to compare this year’s team with that seminal group (as you may recall, this team compared favorably with the 2017 championship squad). On the surface, there are some fascinating (if not necessarily meaningful) similarities: playoff team from the year before… led by an exciting dual threat QB… veteran offensive line led by star OT combo…the big offseason acquisitions were a high profile free agent pass rusher, a trade for a star WR, and the drafting of a monster interior line talent. There are a few differences, too; let’s get to it and go position by position.
QB. As exciting as the development of Jalen Hurts has been this year, I still think that vintage Donovan McNabb was the superior player in 2004, if not by too much. People forget how good McNabb was in those days (a perennial Pro Bowler who was always lurking on the edges of the MVO conversation). File this fact in the Strange But True file: in 2004, McNabb was the first player in NFL history to have 30+ touchdowns passing and fewer than 10 interceptions in the same season. It was hard to believe then, it seems impossible now. He was certainly the best QB in the NFC at the time. As fun as Hurts Hype has been, it’s no insult to give the edge to McNabb here.
SKILL. In 2004, the Eagles were led by two OPOY level talents in TO and Brian Westbrook. That was an unbelievable starting point, but the rest of the skill group was really weak (by total yards from scrimmage, here are the rest of the guys: Todd Pinkston, 34 year old Dorsey Levens, LJ Smith, Freddie Mitchell, Chad Lewis). This year’s group also features two top shelf talents in AJ Brown and Dallas Goedert, but unlike in ‘04 has much better help (Sanders and Smith are both far better than anyone on the above list).
OL. Don’t sleep on how good the ‘04 group was; led by the tackle combo of Tra Thomas and Jon Runyan, they were generally considered the best in the league. This year’s team is no different, and is probably superior on the interior.
DL. The 2004 group’s starting four of Hugh Douglas, Hollis Thomas, Corey Simon and Javon Kearse was really solid, but the depth wasn’t great. This year’s group legitimately goes five deep at tackle and four deep at end (counting Haason Reddick). Edge: this year.
LB. Jeremiah Trotter was a legend, even late in his career, and led a versatile and productive group. I like the way our current group is shaping up but it isn’t at that level just yet.
DB. It’s really hard to believe that any Eagles secondary will ever top the 2004 group, which featured four Pro Bowlers (current, recent or future): Quentin Mikell, Michael Lewis, Lito Sheppard and the incomparable Brian Dawkins, as well as rock solid longtime starters Sheldon Brown and Roderick Hood. That team sent three of the NFC’s four Pro Bowl DB starters. This year’s Eagles group is better than expected but is a couple notches short of arguably the best secondary in 100 years of Eagles history.
What can we learn from this history about Philly's 2022 prospects? By my count, each team has an edge in three position groups, so it’s more or less a push. The 2004 group had one significant edge in terms of continuity; much of the roster and coaching staff had been together for some years prior. That team had a consistent benchmark of success the previous four years, as we all remember (51-22, 70%). This current group has not had the same success the last four years (31-36-1, 46%). That 2004 group had a legendary coaching staff as well: leaving aside Andy Reid (one of the finest coaches of his era), they had SIX future NFL head coaches on the staff (Pat Shurmur, Brad Childress, David Culley, Steve Spagnuolo, Sean McDermott and John Harbaugh), and of course the legend Jim Johnson running the defense. We won’t know what the future holds for this current group for some years, but that’s a difficult standard to meet.
All told, I’m not sure I prefer this year’s team to 2004, but it’s close. Should Jalen Hurts continue his upward trajectory it would certainly help to close this gap in a significant way. The 2004 group took advantage of an NFC that didn’t have many premier contenders, which might apply to this year as well.
This story will be updated after games 6 and 8.
A few more quick hitters about the season at large and this coming matchup with Arizona:
You may recall that I projected an improvement of Jalen Hurts’ TYP to 7.59; Hurts’ current TYP is 7.62.
Philadelphia is one of only two teams that have more yards and first downs than each of their opponents in each of their games. The other? Cleveland. (?!?)
On paper, this coming game should favor Philly in a walk. The issue is that the home team has done very well in this rival recently (7-2 with an average MOV of 7.8). I’d put that down to jet lag; what else is there?
Philly is as banged up going into a game as they've been all year; it looks like Mailata and Maddox will miss the week. Boston Scott, Isaac Seumalo and Landon Dickerson are nicked up as well. The team signed Dicker the Kicker to replace Jake Elliott in case he can't go. Big Play Slay should be good to go, so that's good news.
All told, I still like the Eagles to win a close one. Call it 24-20.
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