The Eagles are 2-0, as you may have heard. You may also have read the list of other 2022 playoff teams that are not 2-0:
Vikings
Giants
Seahawks
Bills
Bengals
Chiefs
Jaguars
Chargers
Of course, all the media seems to be able to mention is breathless amounts of praise for the Cowboys, 49ers and Dolphins, who have jumped out to admittedly impressive starts. What everyone (including many Birds fans) seem to forget is that September is basically silly season for the NFL; very little of what happens now can be taken to heart, good or bad. As Joe Paterno used to say, "There are a lot of September champions".
I wrote a miniseries of columns last year on the Eagles' record after two, four and six games (here's the first of that series from last year). In that piece I pointed out that a 2-0 start had not necessarily been kind to Philly (including last season, the Birds have missed the playoffs in three of the five seasons in which they have won their first two games). On the other hand, the other two years have resulted in Super Bowl appearances. My takeaway: the results after the first two weeks aren't meaningless but perhaps are the next best thing.
A few other thoughts on where we are right now, and on this coming Monday's Buccaneer matchup:
In the preseason I had projected a 2-0 start with a total margin of victory of 16 points; we are 2-0 with a margin of 11 points.
It's fair to point out that the Birds are two plays from being 0-2, those two plays being Slay's pick-6 (turnover touchdowns usually involve more than average measures of luck) and Jefferson's fumble-turned-touchback. This fact does not mean that Philly DESERVES to be 0-2, but does demonstrate the slim margin for error that this team has been working with.
Statistically, Philly has basically fought the opposition to a dead heat; they've been outgained 756-681, out-first-downed 43-41 but hold edges in plays (136-133) and time of possession (70:16-49:44).
Taking the last two points together, it isn't hard to support the idea that Philly is really a 1-1 team masquerading as a 2-0 team. That's disheartening on one hand, but as mentioned above there are plenty of team that are doing no better.
More concerning is the overall level of play we've been getting from some of our mainstays. Jalen Hurts has had arguably his worst two game stretch since 2021 (it's easy to forget, but he had some really appalling games that year). The stats for this year so far back that up (19th in PFF, 21st in ANY/A, 15th in passer rating, 24th in QBR). AJ Brown has been nearly invisible (but has been a referee review and a couple penalties away from being much better), ditto for Dallas Goedert and Hasson Reddick. Slay has shown up overall but his running mates at corner have been banged up and/or ineffective.
The flip side is that there are reasons to think that things will improve across the board. Hurts in particular is definitely better than this, and as mentioned before has had brief rough stretches before now. Jalen is #1 in the NFL in on-target throw percentage and #9 in lowest bad throw percentage, so he's not throwing the ball that badly. As mentioned above, Brown is favorable officiating away from looking a whole lot better. Goedert and Reddick have track records too long to be worried about them so early in the season. Elsewhere, players like Swift, Smith and Sweat are off to white-hot starts. I'll highlight Sweat in particular, who has racked up an absurd 10 QB pressures on only 99 defensive snaps, a pressure rate of 10.1% (last year's league leader in this stat, Nick Bosa, had a pressure rate of 7.5%). The young Georgia DTs have both gotten off to killer starts too. I do want to see more efficiency from Hurts as a runner; I think the coaching staff can help him here by using the run game to set up the pass game, which in turn should unlock the QB run game.
Turning to our Monday night opponent, I was on record in the preseason with this as a toss up game, which may have seemed nuts at that time but looks more reasonable now. The line of Philly by 4.5 seems high, considering how uneven the Birds have played so far this year.
Tampa is a bad matchup for Philly on defense; their run lane clogging DT (Vita Vea) may cause problems and their linebackers are long, athletic and active. I don't look for Philly to have the same success running the ball that they did against Minnesota. I think Brian Johnson will need to be patient and not force anything. Thankfully, our defense should be able to shut down Tampa's struggling run game completely, forcing them to be one dimensional. If this plays out, we should like our chances against Baker Mayfield.
Philly's key to victory will be avoiding mistakes on offense (no turnovers and being willing to take what the defense gives), and letting the pass rush crush an overmatched Tampa OL. The defense needs to be the star on Monday, not the offense. This game definitely has a "first team to 17 points wins" vibe to it.
FLY EAGLES FLY!
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