Eagles Chalk Talk is back and ready to roll!
Let's get started with a few grades on the offseason's biggest moves:
Jonathan Gannon leaves for Arizona: A+. It's hard to feel bad about this guy's departure, considering how his unit largely underperformed its talent level, especially last year. His recent whiny comments about the Philly media really underline how unfit he was for the job. His hiring came with much fanfare but his uncreative, bland and ultimately unproductive scheme contradicted that billing.
Shane Steichan leaves for Indianapolis: D. I think SS did a good job adjusting his offense to the situation and talent on hand; that kind of coach is always going to be tough to replace.
Sean Desai takes over as DC: C-. Obviously it's too early for hot takes, but it's hard to get too excited when one hears that Desai shares the defensive philosophy that Gannon worked with; namely, that job one on defense is to limit big plays. Such a philosophy has the cause-effect relationship backwards; good defenses aren't good because they limit big plays, good defenses limit big plays because they are good. A touchdown still counts as seven points if it comes at the end of a 14 play drive or a three play drive. Again, too early to tell, but this philosophy is killing us.
Brian Johnson takes over as OC: B. I noted last year that Johnson had extremely minimal experience in the NFL; it certainly didn't stop him from being a success last season. Cautious optimism is warranted.
Retained both Slay and Bradberry: C+. On the plus side, keeping one of the better CB tandems together for the next couple years feels like a win. The price tag isn't prohibitive, especially for Bradberry who I thought might exceed the deal he got by as much as 50%. The downside is that both players will be on the wrong side of 30 this season, and Slay certainly seemed to lose a step as the year went along. Time will tell how this move will work out, but at a minimum the Birds bought themselves time to bring some replacements in.
Roster exodus cuts deep: C. Quick summary of the contributors that we lost: Miles Sanders, Andre Dillard, Isaac Seumalo, Zach Pascal, Gardner Minshew, Javon Hargrave, TJ Edwards, Kyzir White, Marcus Epps, CJGJ. We won't shed too many tears over all of these players but many of these guys were meaningful contributors that had the team's respect. Collectively these players represent a staggering 260 career starts for the Eagles. Why isn't this grade much lower? Frankly, losses of this sort were expected. Retaining most of their free agents was never on the table. I did hold out some hope that they'd be able to keep Edwards and Gardner-Johnson but the rest of the losses were expected. In most cases there are already capable replacements in house (LB and S are notable exceptions to this).
Howie Roseman strikes again with another series of one-year roster fixes: C+. As we know, the one year prove-it deal has become a staple in roster building, especially in Philadelphia. In case you've forgotten, here's the 2023 list: Rashaad Penny, Greedy Williams, Marcus Mariota, Justin Evans, Nick Morrow, Terrell Edmunds, Kentavius Street, Olamide Zaccheaus. Of course, we've also had a few one year re-ups: Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham and Jason Kelce come to mind. As far as the new guys go, I don't think anyone other than Penny has both a clear path to playing time and the talent to warrant it. The safeties (Evans and Edmunds) may well be the starters if the season started today, but we'd likely all agree that this would be a poor outcome. Something similar can be said for Nick Morrow. The other guys (Mariota, Williams, Street, Zaccheaus) are fine depth plays but if they have to see major snaps, we're in trouble. All I've said probably sounds more negative than I intend; Roseman has done a good job of (mostly) setting up the roster to not have many major holes going into the draft. Getting eight role players (and possibly a couple starters) for less than $15 million total is a good price, and none of it counted against the comp pick formula.
I'm also happy that the three core guys are back for another year, but the price tag of $30 million seems a bit high.
Jalen Hurts mega-extension. Before I give a grade to this move, we should talk about how to actually grade a move like this. In most grading scales a “C” grade indicates an average result. To merit a B or higher, Roseman really needed to exceed expectations relative to what the Eagles needed. So what did the Eagles need from this extension? Here's the list:
get a long term deal done before OTAs begin
get the deal done without drama
keep the salary cap situation under control
As far as what actually happened, Roseman nailed the first two, but the third objective would have to be considered murky at best. Jeff Lurie has handed out three giant QB contracts before now: McNabb in '03, Vick in '11 and Wentz in '19. In each case, the AAV for the new deal landed at or below 17% of the total salary cap in that year (if you're curious, McNabb got 13.5%, Vick got 13.9% and Wentz got 17% even). It's worth noting that Patrick Mahomes just won a Super Bowl with the highest cap hit for a starting QB in salary cap history, at 17%. This brings us to Jalen Hurts, who's new deal comes in with an AAV of 22.7% of the current salary cap. Of course, most of this new money ($180 million worth, including at least $90 million in guaranteed money) is concentrated in the last two years of the deal (2027 and 2028), but all that means is that Philly will be forced into a restructure whether or not they want to, by the time that those years roll around. Unlike the Wentz contract, there will likely be no silver lining of a trade bounty thanks to Jalen’s no-trade clause. For this to work out, a few things absolutely must happen: 1) the cap must continue to increase as expected (not a guarantee in this recessionary economic environment we're in), 2) Jalen must stay healthy, something that's not going to be easy for a running QB*, 3) Jalen must keep working and improving (I do think he has the mental disposition to do this, thankfully), and 4) the relationship between team and player must stay good.
*The years with the mega cap hits will be Jalen’s age 29 and 30 seasons; the list of running QBs that are still healthy that late in a career is not long. Will he be closer to Russell Wilson or Cam Newton? Perhaps the best outcome will be a career similar to Donovan McNabb’s, but for that to work out Jalen will need to make his running to be more of a sideline than it currently is.
All told, there is a path where this deal works out for Philly in both the short and long terms, but it's narrow. Because of that uncertainty, it's harder to go any higher than C with this grade.
A side note for the concussion uncles in the fan base that see any criticism of the team or players as being unacceptable: a mediocre grade for the Hurts extension doesn't mean that Jalen didn't deserve an extension, that I'm rooting against him or that the deal is a total failure. All it means is that there are a few issues with this extension that can't be overlooked long term.
All in, I’d grade this offseason as a C+. That may sound like faint praise but considering the challenges the team faced going in (limited cap space, plenty of couches leaving, two dozen key free agents, the Jalen contract), I can’t feel bad at all about this outcome. Of course, the draft will have a major say in how we feel about the offseason as a whole, so let’s take a quick stab at an Eagles-only 7 round mock draft (no trades here; it’s tough enough to guess at the picks as it is):
Round 1, #10 overall: Myles Murphy, DE. Murphy has noticeable physical traits (he’s faster than Lukas Van Ness and much bigger than Nolan Smith), and his coaches (plus the scouting community) praise his effort. That tells me that this guy is the rare prospect with both a high floor and a high ceiling. Add to that, DE is both a position of short and long term need, and a position the team values. This is a good outcome no matter which way it’s sliced. NOTE: if Jalen Carter falls this far, he’ll be the pick. I don’t think he’ll make it and I’d be surprised if Philly will be able to trade high enough to get him. Peter Skoronski or Devon Witherspoon would be good outcomes here as well.
Round 1, #30 overall: O’Cyrus Torrence, G. I’m not sure this guy falls this far, but he may, and if so he’s a plug-and-play ten year starter. RG is a position of need, or will be once Kelce retires and Jurgens moves inside. Torrence’s size and demeanor will fit right in with the nastiness that Philly traditionally displays on its OL.
I’ve seen plenty of mocks that slot Bryan Bresee in here; if that happens it’s another major win (assuming Philly doesn't go DL at 10). Bresee has top five upside and would complement the existing DTs perfectly. Darnell Washington, Brian Branch or Jahmyr Gibbs would also be good outcomes.
Round 2, #62 overall: Tucker Craft, TE. TE is a sneaky position of need, and Craft is basically a Dallas Goedert clone as a prospect. If Philly has not yet addressed the trenches by this point, there should be multiple attractive options on both sides of the ball here as well.
Round 3, #94 overall: Riley Moss, DB. I’m projecting a bit here, as a lot of scouts still seem to view Moss as a corner, but I think he has the chops to move to safety. He has the size, athletic ability and physicality to slot in almost anywhere in a defensive backfield, making him a good fit for this team.
Round 7, #219 overall: Brodric Martin, DT. Seventh round picks are 100% unpredictable for lots of reasons, but if things go similarly to what I’ve outlined above, a player like Martin would be worth a gamble this late (monster size at 6-5, 337).
Round 7, #248 overall: Anfernee Orji, LB. For a prospect with a consensus late round grade, Orji checks a lot of boxes: athletic (4.5 speed, 9.23 RAS), experienced (three year starter), good character (captain at Vanderbilt). Philly could do a lot worse this late in the draft.
We’ll be back to talk about the results of the draft in a few days. In the meantime, enjoy the chaos!
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