PREVIOUS 2024 PREVIEW ARTICLES
A (mostly) comprehensive ranking of 68 NFL QBs
A quick prediction of final records, standings and a few comments for each team:
AFC EAST
New York Jets (13-4). Naturally this projection is based on getting the version of Aaron Rodgers that I ranked 7th league wide. The Jets have a top shelf defense, an improved OL and dangerous weapons across the field. If the QB play is solid, this team is a contender. Even if Rodgers can't do it anymore, you can win a lot of games with Tyrod Taylor + a top defense.
Miami Dolphins (10-7). Miami remains what they’ve been; a solid playoff contender but lacking just enough to hope for much more.
Buffalo Bill (8-9). This team may well be the Josh Allen show without much support for the QB; a rugged schedule doesn’t help.
New England Patriots (4-13). Solid contender for the top overall pick next April. Offense might be the league’s worst.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens (12-5). Baltimore will always win games; this team's perception of success is completely dependent on how the playoffs go.
Cleveland Browns (11-6). With even average QB play, this team is a serious contender. They were a playoff team last year with Joe Flacco and PJ Walker playing significant roles.
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8). Mike Tomlin's streaks of winning records and winless postseasons both continue.
Cincinnati Bengals (8-9). What used to be a well rounded team is pretty much down to the passing game, and that depends on the health of the always-injured Burrow.
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans (9-8). If Stroud can duplicate his rookie act, perhaps Houston improves their record from last year. They'll have to do it without the benefit of surprise this time.
Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8). Dougie P has been within a win or loss of .500 every year but two of his seven year coaching career; this would make six of eight.
Indianapolis Colts (6-11). I'm not an Anthony Richardson believer. If I'm wrong, the Colts will do better than this.
Tennessee Titans (5-12). The Titans are switching up offensive philosophies; no Derrick Henry + major question marks at QB + a weak defense = trouble.
AFC WEST
Kansas City Chiefs (12-5). To hit this win mark, KC really needs older vets Kelce and Jones to hold off Father Time. I still think they pull off a division title, at least, but I believe the AFC West will be competitive.
Los Angeles Chargers (12-5). I think Jim Harbaugh will have a similar effect here that he had in SF (improved from 6 to 13 wins in one season); the Chargers are way too talented to be as mediocre as they've been lately.
Denver Broncos (6-11). Too many roster question marks for a team lead by a rookie QB; can you name one thing the Broncos will do well this season?
Las Vegas Raiders (5-12). Issues at QB and in the back seven of the defense sink hopes for much of an improvement.
Projected AFC playoff seeding:
Jets
Chiefs
Ravens
Texans
Chargers
Browns
Dolphins
NFC EAST
Philadelphia Eagles (13-4). If healthy, this may be the best roster in football (see roster deep dives for details).
Dallas Cowboys (11-6). Dallas fails to continue their streak of twelve win seasons and fails to break the curse of the defending NFC East champion.
Washington Commanders (5-12). This isn't a good roster but if Jaylen Daniels is a rookie star, there's enough here to get Washington on the fringes of the playoff picture.
New York Giants (5-12). Like Washington above, this is not a good roster. Unlike Washington above, there's no dynamic rookie QB to offer much hope. Honestly, five wins might be a bit optimistic.
NFC NORTH
Detroit Lions (12-5). This team has put on a masterclass in rebuilding a roster. I think this will be the closest divisional race this season but Detroit pulls it out on tiebreakers.
Green Bay Packers (12-5). On paper this is an elite and well rounded roster. If the young weapons take another step forward and the OL and secondary hold up, this might be a Super Bowl winning team.
Chicago Bears (8-9). Even if Caleb Williams is a cross between Stroud and RG3, I struggle to see this team doing much better than eight or nine wins. The weakness in the trenches may well be too much for Chicago to overcome.
Minnesota Vikings (7-10). Minnesota can contend for the playoffs if they get the USC version of Sam Darnold. If they get the NFL version, they won't.
NFC SOUTH
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8). The offense is average at best but an excellent defense and special teams unit are enough to win this weak division for the fifth year in a row.
Atlanta Falcons (8-9). The offense should be improved but with the limited ceiling that Kirk Cousins tends to provide. The defense is bad.
New Orleans Saints (7-10). This is an aging, mediocre roster led by an aging, mediocre QB. Getting to .500 should be viewed as a success.
Carolina Panthers (4-13). Better than last year but still might be the worst team in football.
NFC WEST
San Francisco 49ers (12-5). SF takes a step back due to age and a difficult schedule.
Seattle Seahawks (9-8). Geno Smith produces a third consecutive nine win season and a second Wild Card berth. Not sure much else happens here.
Los Angeles Rams (7-10). Glass half full: the Rams finished 2023 on a 7-2 tear with the only losses to Baltimore in OT and Detroit by one. Glass half empty: this team hasn't been very good on the whole since their Super Bowl win (15-20 all told) and just lost their best player. I'm more in the second camp; I just don't see enough proven talent on this team, especially on defense.
Arizona Cardinals (4-13). If everything breaks just right, you can see a Wild Card team here if you squint. Unfortunately, you don't need to squint to see that this team is still led by this guy and this guy.
Projected playoff seeding:
Eagles
Lions
49ers
Buccaneers
Packers
Cowboys
Seahawks
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