A few very random thoughts as we move into the all-important stretch run. As a reminder, I'm of the opinion that the season really begins once Thanksgiving dinner has been served.
Some are still ragging on the Eagles for struggling with the Colts. While most of us acknowledge that the game wasn't everything it could have been, be reminded that this Colts team isn't a total joke. They did beat Kansas City earlier this year and were generally considered one of the few teams that would be favored over the Eagles in the preseason. I'll repeat myself and say that I was reminded by this game of our famous win over Carolina in 2017.
There's a case to be made that James Bradberry has been the best corner in the league so far this season. Among qualifying corners (a group of 162 players), Bradberry ranks first in both yards allowed per target (4.00) and passer rating surrendered (40.3). What's more remarkable is that the 58 targets he's endured rank are tied for 10th among corners, meaning that his success is not the result of some fluke of being out of the action. In my opinion Bradberry should top the lengthy list of prospective extension candidates for the offseason.
I estimate Jalen Hurts' TYP to be 7.12 so far this season; that mark would have ranked 6th in the NFL last year.
The Eagles should be solidly favored in the remaining non-division games (Packers, Titans, @Bears, Saints). Let's break these down game-by-game: (1) The Packers formerly terrifying passing game has been largely neutered (they've yet to hit 300 passing yards in eleven games, and have only hit 250 once), and their defense is 16th in PPG, 16th in defensive SRS and 20th in defensive DVOA. Philly's run defense should continue to improve as they integrate Suh and Joseph into the defense. (2) The Titans are literally a .500 team masquerading as a contender. The Eagles should win this matchup by a solid ten points, especially at home. (3) Chicago has improved their fortunes dramatically over the last month or so, but they're a one trick pony on offense, their QB is banged up and their defense was firesold at the trade deadline. An Eagles loss would absolutely be an upset. (4) As far as the Saints go, I'm really not sure what's going on down there. In the preseason I did suggest that there was a chance of a collapse for them but I didn't think it was probable. In any case, New Orleans' season will certainly be over by New Year's, and I suspect they won't want any part of a motivated Eagles team in the early January cold. The Saints pick that is coming our way will likely land in the 6-10 range. To summarize, I don't necessarily think that Philly sweeps all four of these games (I think they've got at least one more bad game in them), but calling for a 3-1 record for these contests is a very reasonable prediction.
Philly has a solid lead for the division so far, but much can change over these final weeks, especially since the Birds have three games against the Giants and Cowboys (two on the road). If Dallas stays hot, I believe Philly will need to win two of these three to maintain their edge. If course, the caveat there is that the Cowboys will stay hot...
...and I'm not convinced they will. The media is going completely nuts over their domination of Minnesota. To be fair, that was unquestionably an impressive win, but don't forget the following: 1) Minnesota was off a highly draining road win over Buffalo and likely was not mentally as sharp as they might have been otherwise, 2) Dallas was frantically running up the score (leaving starters in late 3Q while up five touchdowns? Kicking a 50 yard FG in the fourth quarter? Give me a break), more than a little compensation baked into that final score, 3) no team is as good as they look in their best game or as bad as they look in their worst game. Dallas fans want us to forget that they get blasted by a .500 Tampa team and lost to a sub-.500 Green Bay team just the previous week. Suffice to say, don't be shocked if this historically overhyped team (any time Dallas has a big win or hits the stretch run over .500 they media blows a LOT of smoke in their direction) gets beat by a Giants team that will be looking to get back on track this Thursday afternoon.
If we assume the 3-1 record in non-NFC East games, and if Philly wins two of three divisional games, that takes the final record to 14-3. Should Philly drop an additional division game, that 13-4 record with a 3-3 NFC East record may drop the Birds to a Wild Card spot. How does that work? Dallas' remaining schedule (Giants, Colts, Texans, @Jaguars, Eagles, @Titans, @Commanders) is very manageable. I have a hard time seeing that they'll be underdogs in any of those games. If they go 6-1 with the lone loss being a divisional game (probably the most likely scenario), they'll also be 13-4 but with a superior 4-2 division record, giving them the title. Bottom line: there's plenty of reason to feel good about the Eagle's chances but it is by no means a slam dunk; there's work to do.
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