These last three weeks have been stressful and unpleasant on Eagles' fandom; no shock there. More than enough has been said about the team's shortcomings, failures and weaknesses, so I'm going to look at this team from a big picture perspective and see if we can dig up some optimism:
Evaluating Nick Sirianni. Lots of nonsense takes out there calling for Nick's head. My advice for those over-reactionaries is this:
Nick has his faults (too focused on the pass game and big plays, on both sides of the ball), but any objective measure must conclude that he is (at a minimum) an above average coach. Check this out:
2021 Eagles preseason win projection: 6.5 (actually won 9)
2022 Eagles preseason win projection: 9.5 (actually won 14)
2023 Eagles preseason win projection: 11.5 (should win at least 12)
As we know, the Vegas projections take into account both the perceived talent on the team and the schedule; Nick's teams have outperformed the projection in each season and have done so comfortably. Other than perhaps Howie Roseman, Sirianni deserves as much credit as anyone for that (including Jalen, who has basically had one elite season of the three mentioned). Speaking of...
Evaluating Jalen Hurts. Let's get the obvious out of the way first: Jalen is not the player he was last year. Once the season is over we can revisit why (there are lots of possibilities), but let's state a few things for the record:
Jalen was better than his reputation in 2021, probably not as good as his reputation in '22, and I'd make the case he's back to being a little underrated now.
For all the awful things that have happened with (and to) Jalen this year, his performance is still good enough (10th in both PFF's rating and ESPN's QBR, 9th in Turnover Worthy Play %).
In hindsight, my slotting of Jalen at #3 in the preseason was likely premature but a top ten QB is really all that's needed for contention and Jalen has been at that level for three years running.
I plan on dealing with this more once the season is over, but a quick list of issues that partially explain Hurts' regression: an offseason that was a month shorter than normal, a change in offensive playcaller, continual health problems, replacing a couple offensive starters and role players, a banged up offensive line that has seen at least eight different players earn starts, a tough slate of opposing defenses (ten of fourteen games against top 12 units by Defensive SRS) that have made stopping Hurts their top priority.
All told, it's certainly fair to state that Jalen's 2023 season has disappointed, but it's equally fair to point out that things are not nearly as bad as they feel right now.
Evaluating Brian Johnson. Everyone's least favorite OC has seemingly been underwater with the fans since September. We know there have been issues here (a neglect of the run game at times and an overly complicated passing game too fixated on deep shots both come to mind), but it's more than fair to point out that the offense has not been the weak link of the team so far. Check it out:
Total offense: 9th
Scoring offense: 7th
Yards/play: 10th
First downs gained: 4th
3rd down conversion %: 3rd
Red zone TD %: 9th
Expected points added: 6th
Offensive SRS: 7th
PFF team offensive grade: 7th
FPI team offensive grade: 5th
When the counting stats and the advanced stats all agree that this is a top ten offense, the level of complaints that we've seen becomes unwarranted. This isn't to say that Johnson can't improve (he absolutely can, and should), but for a guy that everyone seems to want to see get fired, his unit has done alright.
Evaluating Sean Desai. Let's look at the same set of stats cited for Johnson above and see how Desai's unit stacks up:
Total defense: 22nd
Scoring defense: 26th
Yards/play allowed: 21st
First downs allowed: 27th
3rd down conversion % allowed: 32nd
Red zone TD % allowed: 28th
Expected points allowed: 30th
Defensive SRS: 21st
PFF team defensive grade: 13th
FPI: 23rd
Yeah, not great. To be sure, this is nowhere near Desai's fault completely. He was dealt a bad deck with a mediocre at best back seven that was old at some spots and inexperienced at others, and then proceeded to see both his LB group and secondary be gutted with injuries (almost everyone in the back seven two deep has missed time with injuries and plenty of players are on the shelf for the whole season). Three main issues come up that incriminate Desai:
The lack of rotation on the defensive line has left the pass rushers gassed and the pass rush (supposed to be the strength of the entire defense) basically inert. In the preseason I had pointed out the team's ridiculous pass rushing depth: the team basically had six guys that could play (Reddick, Sweat, Graham, Smith, Barnett, Johnson) and it was that depth that should have been able to overrun offenses, on paper at any rate. In practice, the last four guys on that list have combined for a mere 520 defensive snaps; both Reddick and Sweat have racked up over 700 snaps. That imbalance and the fatigue it's created for the top two is showing itself big time now.
Both Brooks Kubena (of The Athletic) and Jonny Page (of Bleeding Green Nation) have written in-depth articles in the last couple weeks outlining significant issues with both scouting and communication in the secondary. Give one or both of those stories a read, if you haven't already, and you'll recognize a lot of the problems that we've seen, especially in the secondary and on third down.
This final point isn't totally on the DC (as said above and in April, this philosophy comes down from Sirianni), but I think we've seen more than enough of the "limit the big plays and we'll be successful" approach to defense. I'm going to repeat what I said about it back then: "Such a philosophy has the cause-effect relationship backwards; good defenses aren't good because they limit big plays, good defenses limit big plays because they are good. A touchdown still counts as seven points if it comes at the end of a 14 play drive or a three play drive."
The talent issues and the defensive philosophy preferred by the head coach are excuses for Desai; the mismanagement of the pass rush rotation and the issues in the secondary are not. Small wonder that a change took place, the only question was whether the team would wait until the season was over. I think the team knew what might happen if they waited; they would have lost on the best candidates yet again as they're already in the playoffs. I'm fine with how they played this; at a minimum, it's hard to see how the defense gets much worse under Matt Patricia.
How should we feel about the season so far? Leave aside, if you can, the three game losing streak* that we've been on and take the season as a whole. Philly has racked up a 10-4 record, 3-1 in the NFC East. They've achieved this despite playing the league's 5th toughest schedule (by SRS) to date. For reference, here's the schedule rank for the other ten win teams:
49ers: 16th
Ravens: 17th
Lions: 24th
Cowboys: 29th
Dolphins: 32nd
Philly has four wins over teams with winning records and six wins over teams that are in playoff position as of tonight. They rank 7th in overall SRS and have beaten four of the six teams ahead of them. Philly's ten wins at this juncture of the schedule (remember that in the preseason, every single one of the Eagle's first 14 games was against either a '22 playoff team, a team that had been .500 or better in '22 or a team like the Jets who was expected to be a playoff contender in 2023) is better than anyone but the most optimistic of fans could realistically have predicted.
Summary of this segment: this is a flawed team but the season to date cannot be reasonably considered a disappointment.
*A quick last word about this losing streak: without pretending for a moment that Philly deserves much better than 0-3 based on how they played, let's not forget that without bad tackling, horrible officiating, unusually poor red zone offense, uncharacteristic fumbles and dropped passes as well as some badly timed injuries and general fatigue, Philly is much more competitive over that stretch and almost certainly wins one if not two of those games. We won't see that much bad luck concentrated over a couple games again, we just won't. I'm very aware that some of the teams we beat would say the same thing about their losses to Philly, but that's why it's critical to take the season as a whole and not get hung up over a few good or bad weeks.
Can the Eagles right the ship? In a word, yes. Jalen can play better and I think he will, as he gets more healthy. The defense has had lots of issues but can really only go in one direction. As they get healthier and take in different leadership, I think this also may take place. One positive that we aren't talking about much: the special teams have gone from total liability to notable asset. I think the biggest thing this team needs to do is just to start winning again, which will restore confidence and remind them that they are actually a good team. This coming three game stretch is just what the doctor ordered in that regard; Philly will be a prohibitive favorite in all three games with a better than 75% chance of a full sweep. If that happens, the Eagles will break the Curse of the Defending NFC East Champ and will likely land as the #2 seed.
Of course, the possibility exists that the team keeps cratering and falls short of the optimism I'm selling here. My point is just to provide hope that things are not nearly as bad as they feel right now.
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