This will, admittedly, be a shorter list than the "What went wrong" post from last week. When the team collapses as badly as it did, you'll be hard pressed to find much optimism to hang your hat on, but we're going to try:
The Eagles, on the whole, did reasonably well against top shelf competition. I mentioned this briefly in the earlier piece, but Philly did pretty well against the most difficult elements of its schedule. Consider:
The Eagles played nine games against teams that ended up above .500; they were 6-3 in those games
The Eagles went 6-2 against eventual playoff teams
They went 3-1 in such games on the road
Philly was 3-1 in games against teams that landed in the divisional round of the playoffs, including 2-0 on the road
Philly played seven games against top ten teams by SRS; they were 5-2 in those games
We've talked before about the relatively tough slate of opposing defenses Philly played this season; they ended up with ten games against above-average defenses (by DSRS) and went 7-3
Similarly, the Eagles were 4-2 against above average offenses
The Eagles went 4-1 in divisional games in which their starters played
We likely recognize the glass-half-full approach to this list, but the point is just that this season wasn't ALL disappointment. It's also clear that much of the embarrassment came against clearly inferior teams, which indicates that the problem isn't a lack of talent.
The Eagles do NOT have a lack of talent. If you listen to certain members of the Philly beat, you might actually think that this is a bad team that's years away from competing. That's just not true. After Chip Kelly was fired, people thought the situation would be hopeless for years, but just 26 months later the team was lifting its first Lombardi trophy. Similarly, after the 2020 disaster, the Eagles looked old, cap strapped and stuck with a volatile QB and unknown head coach. Few were optimistic. Just two years later, the Birds were a sketchy holding call away from another championship. That may or may not happen here, but this team has shown the ability to rebound quickly.
The common denominator in those years was an underrated group of returning talent. Is this team OK in that department going forward? Let's see:
QB: Even with the struggles this year, teammates still swear by Jalen Hurts and even the biggest Eagle doubter would likely still rank him in the top ten leaguewide.
SKILL: The Brown-Smith-Goedert triumvirate remains one of the best in the league. Yes, Philly will need a WR3, a TE2 and solutions at RB. There's no reason to think they can't find them.
OL: The OT combo of Mailata and Johnson remains strong. Landon Dickerson has been a Pro Bowl talent since he came into the league. The probable loss of Jason Kelce is huge, but there's some reason to think that Cam Jurgens can be a capable player. If the team wants to keep him at guard, they'll likely draft a center.
DL: The team returns four young DTs with promised in Carter, Davis, Williams and Tuipulotu. Some of those guys need to take strides but I'd bet that some will. Reddick and Sweat remain an elite pass rush duo, and Nolan Smith may be in line for a sophomore surge.
LB: Not much optimism here, but hopefully they find a good linebacker in the draft and Nakobe Dean manages to stay healthy. There's a world in which Dean and Jeremiah Trotter Jr. are our starters next season; that's a world I could live in.
DB: Safeties will need to be found, but the Eagles low key have a deep young corner room (Ringo, Ricks, Jobe, Zech McPhearson, Isaiah Rodgers). Not all will be difference makers but my money says that at least one will be a solid starter by the end of next year. They'll need more help at safety but Blankenship has been a nice find.
Special Teams: see below!
Cap space: Depends on who you ask, but the Birds should have somewhere between 25-30 million in room for 2024. Need to restructure a contract? Make a splash trade or FA signing? This team can do it.
Draft picks: As of now, it looks like the Eagles will have eight picks in the following rounds: (1, 2, 2, 3, 5, 5, 5, 5). This selection of trades is ripe for either big trading or quality drafting.
Final analysis: this existing roster plus a solid draft, Big Free Agent A and Solid Trade Acquisition B should still have a top 10-12 floor leaguewide.
Special teams was finally special. You'll find special teams rankings for the Birds all over the map, from 15th (lineups.com) to 1st (DVOA). This matches the eye test; the emergence of Braden Mann at punter and Britain Covey at PR, as well as improved coverage units and the continual dominance of Jake Elliott all pointed to an improved unit. Frankly, compared to last year's disaster of a unit, even an average group looks elite.
Fresh start at the coordinator spots offers hope. I had complained that Sirianni's staff was too heavy on young guys that were big on modern concepts but short on experience, and it showed this year. The team seems went with a more senior voice as the new DC (Vic Fangio). One wonders what Kellen Moore (the new OC) still has to offer that the league hasn't yet seen, but the optimist's perspective would be that losing his job in B2B seasons would have to keep the pressure on him to stay sharp. If nothing else, the lessons of the painful finish to last season should force some change and some accountability.
To me, the biggest questions surrounding the team have less to do with the tangibles we've been discussing, and more with the reshuffled hierarchy on the coaching staff. The buzz that Sirianni will now be some sort of CEO coach that is functionally a lame duck needs to be monitored. Will the traditional organizational philosophies of being over-heavy on the pass game and hyperfocused on creating and preventing big plays get in the way of good choices? One hopes the lessons of 2023 have been learned, but we'll need to wait till September to find out for sure.
Coming up: an offseason primer including stay-or-go commentary on Philly's many free agents, and a mock draft.
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