DISCLAIMER: I am not betting on Philly to get to the Super Bowl. Truth is, I'm not betting on them to win this weekend. Between how flat Philly has looked since Thanksgiving and how banged up they are, it's frankly shocking that the Birds are favored against Tampa tomorrow.
THE CHALLENGE: Few teams with defenses this bad have ever made the Super Bowl, much less won it. Very few teams that have finished the season so poorly (five losses in seven games) have ever reached the Super Bowl. The list of players that are injured, nicked up or just plain worn out is LONG. The coaching staff has unaccountably seemed to run out of answers*.
*side note: it's still hard to imagine Sirianni getting the boot unless Lurie and Roseman have inside information on exactly why the team has collapsed that points directly to Nick as the cause. That's certainly possible; similar issues clouded the end of the last three Eagles coaches' tenures. We'll know more in a couple days, unless...
THE NARROW PATH TO GLORY. Green Bay's shocking demolition of the hated Cowboys has restored my hope in the "anything is possible" dynamic (it's not shocking that Dallas lost but the complete lack of competitiveness surprised me, although perhaps it should not have). Worse teams than this Eagles team have won it all (most notably the 2011 Giants). Let's assume that Philly recovers its championship mettle somehow and shows more fire than they did the last couple games; what else should we be looking/hoping for?
Eagles beat Tampa. Obviously we begin here. Baker Mayfield's injury doesn't matter at all to me; every game I've seen the Bucs win always seems to come in spite of Mayfield and not because of him. Philly need to be willing to run the ball early and often, but Tampa is more healthy on defense than they were in the first meeting. Philly can take comfort in the knowledge that they dominated Tampa in September as thoroughly as they dominated anyone this year, and the fact that in spite of all the issues they've endured, the Eagles are the better team.
What if the Rams beat the Lions? I picked Detroit to win this game, mostly because the home field edge the Lions should enjoy will be substantial (it's the first Lions home playoff game in 30 years). Still, LA is one of the hottest teams in the NFL over the two months (their only loss over their last eight games was an OT loss in Baltimore). Should the Rams hit the upset, it would set up an improbable Eagles home playoff game with LA next Sunday. Keep in mind that Philly did beat LA in California back in October, and never sell short the Linc in January. Philly is 3-1 all time against Sean McVay.
What if the Lions beat the Rams? Detroit, riding high on an emotional home playoff win, may well be overvalued by both the national media and their own locker room going into the divisional round. They will unquestionably be favored against Philly but as we saw in both Dallas and Houston this weekend, you seldom want to be the undisputed favorite in the playoffs. Don't be totally shocked by an Eagle upset, and remember that Sirianni has won both previous matchups against Dan Campbell, both in Detroit (scored 41 PPG).
Assuming Philly pulls this off:
NFCCG possibility 1: Eagles vs. 49ers. To reiterate, I'd bet against Philly getting this far, but I've shown that it isn't totally impossible. Should Philly earn the rematch, the vibes in the Novacare Complex should be radically improved. I'm also going to assume that the health of the team would be better. If all of that plays out, I'll point to my retrospective column from that ugly loss as evidence that the rematch may play out a little differently.
NFCCG possibility 2: Eagles vs. Packers. This would be a completely off the walls result; if you asked most fans and analysts who were the teams least likely to get this far, the consensus result would definitely have been the Eagles and Packers in some order. Clearly, if this is the result it will completely alter our perceptions of both teams as of tonight, so I'm not even going to speculate on a result, but if Philly gets this far, they would be 8-2 against 2023 playoff teams, would be playing at home and would have restored hope that's currently dead.
There you have it, the path to the big game that's been made a little easier by the Cowboys Annual Choke Job (presented by Jerry Jones). Of course, this journey begins tomorrow; baby steps, people.
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