Having had time to move past that 49ers disaster, I'd like to make a few comments about this weekend's pivotal Cowboys clash:
Championship teams rebound from big losses. I looked back over the previous 30 seasons at the teams that ended up winning the Super Bowl to see how they typically fared after a big loss. It turns out that most of these eventual champions had at least one stinker of a defeat, and virtually all rebounded in a notable way. Of those 30 teams, 24 sustained a loss of at least ten points and eleven took at loss of at least 20. The average scoring margin of the worst losses for these champions was 17.9 points, a remarkable figure. Now the good news: these teams rebounded to go 25-4 (86.2%) in their next game (I excluded the 2009 Saints as their worst defeat was in the final game of the season with their backups in), and they won by an average of 14.6 PPG, a ridiculous 32.5 point turnaround. Notably, every single team improved their scoring margin by 12 or more points. Again, these were the thirty teams that won the Super Bowl, so a big loss was hardly the nail in their coffin. Of course, none of this is directly relevant to the 2023 Eagles except to say that even the best teams suffer ugly defeats. Teams with championship mettle (as we think this Birds team is) generally find a way to get right quickly, and as I suggested earlier this week, this team can too.
How important is this game? Interestingly, I think this game matters more to Dallas than to Philly. Of course I don't want to see the Birds drop a second game in a row, but after this the Eagles have four games in the row in which they'll be favored (@Seahawks, Giants, Cardinals, @Giants); a 4-0 sweep of these games is by no means guaranteed but is easily the most likely result. Even should the Birds lose Sunday, an undefeated finish would leave them with a 14-3 record (5-1 in the division). Dallas, as we know, is kicking off their own murderer's row; they follow Sunday's game with road trips to Buffalo and Miami, then a home game with Detroit. There's roughly a 70% chance that the Cowboys lose at least one one more game. That leaves Dallas with a 13-4 record. Pressure's on, Cowgirls. I'm going to copy, paste and update my paragraph on this issue from last year's mega preview:
PERFORMANCE IN HIGH LEVERAGE CONTESTS. Most Philly fans are of the opinion that the Cowboys are both posers and chokers; I share this sentiment. We know what the recent playoff record of the Cowboys is (four playoff wins in 26 years and 15 playoff games is very difficult to explain rationally outside of the choker theory); I was curious to see if this trend continued into the late regular season. I went year-by-year (starting with 1995) and noted games for both the Cowboys and the Birds that met the following criteria: 1) were regular season games played in December or January, 2) were played against playoff teams, 3) the starters did not rest. I found that, while neither team has a stellar record, the Birds have a notable advantage. Philly has racked up a 16-24 mark (40%) in such games while Dallas is 14-32 (30.4%). What’s notable is that in years in which Philly or Dallas was a playoff team (which applies to both teams this year), the difference is more pronounced; Philly is 12-7 (63.2%) while Dallas is only 7-10 (41.2%). Most notably, these teams have met several times during this stretch in high leverage scenarios (I count these as meetings where both teams were destined for the playoffs, or where the game was effectively an elimination game). Philly has beaten Dallas in six of the nine games that fit this description, which seems significant.
Long story short: Philly feels like the team that needs this game more, but that's not accurate. Dallas REALLY needs this game to avoid another relegation to the Wild Card round, and to shed the label of "chokers" that's been rightfully applied to them.
Keys to the game. The two items I pointed out prior to the last meeting (turnovers and red zone efficiency) loom large again. Dallas has an 8-0 record when turnovers are even or in their favor but has lost three of four when they lose the turnover battle. In the last meeting, Philly averaged 7 points per trip inside the Dallas 30 while the Cowboys only averaged 3.3 in similar trips inside the Eagles' 30. To pull this off, the Birds will need some semblance of a run game on offense and will need to bend but not break on defense. I still don't see how Philly stops the Cowboys' passing game but they should have enough savvy to slow it down and play tough in the red zone; they did this last time and it turned the game.
Bottom line. On paper, Dallas should win this game fairly comfortably. Thankfully the games are not played on paper. These late season pivotal matchups often come down to whoever wants it more, or whoever is mentally tougher and executes better. As mentioned earlier, Philly seems to have the edge there and will be motivated to turn things around after last weekend's debacle. Dallas, meanwhile, has come off a monthlong run of beating down weak teams and hearing about how great they are; hardly the setup of a team mentally ready for a real test. I'm reminded of the Christmas week clash between these two teams in 2019; Philly was so banged up and had been outplayed by Dallas for much of the year, but in that gotta-have-it matchup, the Birds' defense stood tall and delivered a 17-9 victory, putting Philly in the driver's seat in the NFC East. It's hard to rule out a similar result this weekend. Either way, plan on yet another white knuckled ride on Sunday night.
FLY EAGLES FLY!
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