Two years ago, in anticipation of a Philly Super Bowl run, I wrote a piece that attempted to use statistical history to determine the mold that champions typically come from. I ended up finding seven statistical traits that seemed to predict success with some frequency. I didn't update the piece last year due to how bad the Birds looked going into the postseason (instead I wrote this article, comical in hindsight, that outlined the Birds' path to the Super Bowl). Now that we're on the verge of what appears to be another meaningful January of Eagles football, I thought it would be interesting to revisit the experiment from two years ago. I don't want to take the time to re-explain my methodology, so if you're curious, here's another link to the 2022 version of the piece.
After doing that research (again), I've updated my list of seven traits of Super Bowl Winners:
A top ten scoring offense. No change to the original item here, and hardly a surprise.
A top twelve scoring defense. The threshold drops a little bit from ten to twelve, but what's interesting is that we are one short of the 70% threshold for top eight scoring defenses (15 of the 22 previous winners ranked at least 8th). Watch this one; the top eight scoring defenses this year are all represented in the playoffs (Chargers, Eagles, Broncos, Chiefs, Vikings, Packers, Lions, Steelers).
Top ten in BOTH passer rating and ANY/A achieved by the offense. Naturally, this speaks to the importance of an efficient passing offense (and the value of quality over quantity). Plenty of representation of teams that fit both tests here too (Ravens, Bills Lions, Packers, Chargers, Vikings, Eagles, Buccaneers).
Top twelve in BOTH passer rating and ANY/A allowed by the defense. The defensive mirror of the above point, and important for the same reason. The teams that fit this bill are the Broncos, Packers, Texans, Chiefs, Chargers, Vikings, Eagles and Steelers.
Top ten in turnover ratio. No shock here. Nine of the top ten teams in this statistic made the playoffs; they are the Bills, Ravens, Lions, Packers, Texans, Chargers, Vikings, Eagles and Steelers.
New this year, team must have won at least 60% of their games after Thanksgiving. Very rarely will you find a team that limped to the finish of the regular season turn it on in the playoffs. Eagles fans will painfully recall last season, where the Birds went 2-5 after Thanksgiving and were one-and-done in the postseason. The NFL season really begins at Thanksgiving. This year, the playoff teams that won at the required rate are everyone BUT the Packers and Steelers.
Finally, the team must have all-around excellence, here measured as averaging 12th or better in the 22 statistical tests. The teams in the playoffs that fit this bill are the Ravens, Broncos, Lions, Packers, Chargers, Vikings and Eagles.
Since the NFL went to 32 teams for the 2002 season, there have been 22 Super Bowls and every single champion but the '07 Giants passed at least three of these tests. The average number of tests passed was five, a mark that 13 winners met or exceeded. Here are the teams in the playoffs, sorted by the number of tests that they passed:
passed all seven: Eagles, Chargers, Vikings.
passed six: Ravens, Lions, Packers.
passed five: Bills and Broncos.
passed four: Buccaneers
passed three: Commanders, Steelers, Chiefs, Texans.
passed one: Rams.
In case you want to see the full data table; here it is:
What are the conclusions we should draw from this, other than "Philly is really good"? Here are a few of mine:
The Chargers and Vikings are narrow favorites this weekend but don't sleep on either to make a serious run.
Speaking of the NFC North, how tough does that division look? Philly may well have to beat all three teams to get to the Super Bowl.
The Bills are big favorites against Denver this weekend, but perhaps should be careful; the Broncos look sneaky dangerous.
Kansas City grades pretty weakly but also graded weakly two years ago and still won it all.
The Rams are ROUGH and I think are the worst team in the bracket.
This item didn't make the tests list above because I focused on more specific stats and not team-wide measures, but interesting nonetheless: every single one of the 22 Super Bowl winners evaluated finished 12th or better in SRS. This year, every playoff team but the Steelers, Rams and Texans made that cut.
Before we get out of here, let's make some picks (I'm not good at point spreads, so I'll just underline who I think wins the game):
Chargers at Texans (+2.5). I'm confident in LA's chances to get this win but I think this game will be competitive; the Chargers' offense just hasn't been dynamic enough to pull away from many teams. Side note; we'll see if Stroud can rewrite the script of his sophomore season. A big game from him is essential to pulling off this upset.
Steelers at Ravens (-8.5). The narrative about these teams is that Baltimore under Lamar has been a juggernaut and the Steelers have been underachieving under that same time frame. What's not talked about as much is that Pittsburgh is 9-5 against Baltimore in that time frame and has only been outscored by .6 PPG in those games. Throw Jackson's playoff struggles in there and the narrative just seems off to me. I just can't talk myself into picking the Steelers straight up but I think this game is closer than most project.
Broncos at Bills (-8.5). As mentioned above, Denver is probably a little better than most realize. Buffalo, on the other hand, seems to blow really hot or really cold come playoff time. Like the game above, I can't quite call for the outright upset but don't be shocked if this one goes the distance.
Packers at Eagles (-5.5). Going all the way back to the preseason, I had this matchup as a near dead heat. I still feel that these two are remarkably well matched on the whole, but this time Philly is at home, is more rested, is more healthy (Packers missing both Christian Watson and Jaire Alexander) and already knows how to beat this team. I would be surprised if either team blasts the other but I do like the Birds to move on.
Commanders at Buccaneers (-3). This game was the hardest for me to decide on but Tampa is the better team, has more playoff experience and is playing at home. The return of Jamel Dean and Antoine Winfield from injury boost Tampa as well. On the other hand, I was not impressed with how lackadaisical Tampa looked in their must-win game against the Saints last week, and the Commanders will likely play loose as they're pretty much playing with house money. Could go either way, but I like the Bucs to win.
Vikings at Rams (+2.5). I just don't respect this Rams team at all. They may well be the worst team in the bracket and won't even have the homefield edge. McVay is a good coach and will have them ready, plus they got their starters some rest last week. However, the Vikings played like a serious Super Bowl contender for much of the season (again, passed all seven tests). They got beaten by an excellent Lions team on the road last week but were a dropped pick six from that game being much closer. It's always possible that Detroit took Minnesota's soul in that game, but that seems unlikely and if that's not the case this point spread is ridiculously low.
If all this plays out the way I'm projecting (I know it's all chalk, just the way it played out), Philly will host Tampa in what would be the sixth meeting between the teams in the Sirianni era, and would be at home for the first time in five games against the Bucs. One step at a time.
FLY EAGLES FLY!
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