First things first; in this column two years ago, I made the following prediction:
"Eagles win IF: they do not turn the ball over and get fair treatment from the officials."
Well, they did turn the ball over, and of course (as we all remember too well), this happened.
That's all behind us now (right?); I want to do a brief runthrough of why it seems quite possibly, even likely, that Philly will earn revenge in another Super Bowl rematch.
1) Philly is the better team. Let's be frank, most football fans (let alone talking heads) are suffering from a severe case of Chiefs Awe. And who can blame them? A team that has won three of the last five championships, is playing in its fifth Super Bowl in six years and has won a staggering 17 straight one score games (a statistic that literally has a 0.0008% chance of occurring) feels inevitable. Are the Chiefs good, or just lucky? KC won 15 games while Philly only won 14; does that matter? I decided to try to break it down in several different ways:
Conventional statistical measures. In my playoff preview column, I reviewed 22 different statistical measurements as a way of profiling who was most likely to win the Super Bowl. Here's how the Birds and KC break down:
STAT | Eagles rank | Chiefs rank |
Points scored | 7 | 15 |
Points allowed | 2 | 4 |
Sack % allowed | 30 | 16 |
Sack % created | 15 | 19 |
Yards gained | 8 | 16 |
Rushing yards gained | 1 | 22 |
Total yards allowed | 1 | 9 |
Special teams points above expectation | 21 | 15 |
Passing yards gained | 29 | 14 |
ANY/A (offense) | 10 | 18 |
Passer rating (offense) | 5 | 17 |
Rushing yards per carry gained | 5 | 28 |
Passing yards allowed | 1 | 18 |
ANY/A (defense) | 1 | 10 |
Passer rating (defense) | 3 | 12 |
Turnover ratio | 6 | 12 |
3rd down % (offense) | 10 | 2 |
3rd down % (defense) | 3 | 26 |
Red zone % (offense) | 13 | 22 |
Red zone % (defense) | 6 | 8 |
Rushing yards allowed | 10 | 8 |
Rushing yards per carry allowed | 11 | 6 |
AVERAGE | 9.05 | 14.41 |
It's reasonably clear that Philly outperforms KC pretty significantly, not only in the total average (more than five slots!), but in the fact that Philly ranked higher in 16 of 22 stats, and more tellingly, Philly ranked 8 or more slots better in a given stat than KC 12 times; KC only three such times.
PFF grades analysis. Two years ago I took the time to do a snap-weighted comparison of the Eagles and Chiefs based on PFF score. Philly rated better than the Chiefs then, but not by too much. Now, it's more pronounced. The average score for an Eagle (snap weighted) was 73.5, that number for the average Chief was 69.2 (for reference, that difference of 4.3 is much larger than the margin of 1.9 that Philly enjoyed two years ago). Philly's starters outscore the Chief's starters 77.7-71.1; two years ago KC's starters outranked the Birds. Of the units I split out (QB, SKILL, OL, DL, LB, DB), only the QB unit ranked lower for the Eagles than their KC counterpart. I think this is pretty widely acknowledged, but the Eagles have generally played better than the Chiefs this year.
Defense wins championships. The higher ranked defense by DVOA is 25-18 (58.2%) in the big game; the higher ranked defense by DSRS is 28-15 (65.2%). The Eagles rate better in both measures.
Caveats. It should be noted that the Eagles had the edge in most of these ways two years ago and still came up short. It should also be noted that the Chiefs were the lesser of the two defenses in all three of their Super Bowl victories. We should also note that KC outscored common opponents by 7.75 PPG while Philly only managed 4.25 net PPG. My takeaway is that you can argue it both ways but it's hard to ignore the Eagles' statistical dominance; they have just played better overall.
2) Turnovers remain an obvious key to success. There's a narrative forming that the turnover ratio matters less in the era of superstar QBs; I'm here to tell you that's false. NFL teams that won the turnover battle during the 2024 regular season went 157-45 (77.8%). Maybe that represented mostly bad teams getting beaten up by good teams? In the playoffs over the last four seasons, the winner of the turnover battle has run off a notable 30-7 record (81.1%). It is worth noting, however, that three of those seven victories were achieved by the Chiefs. Still, Philly has not turned the ball over once in these playoffs. KC has yet to force a turnover in these playoffs. Food for thought.
Side note on the above: since the Birds got their things together at the bye week, they've won the turnover battle by a not-to-be-believed 34-7 ratio.
3) SRS makes its prediction. The higher ranked team by SRS has won 31 of the 54 Super Bowls since the merger (57.4%). Philly is the higher ranked team by that metric.
4) What about that ridiculous record of wins in one score games for the Chiefs? As noted above, KC's achievement of winning 17 one score games in a row is absurdly unusual. The obvious homer counter goes something like this: "Well, they're just that good! They have the winning gene!" That generally fails as analysis for NFL teams, but let's partially grant the premise and change the scenario a bit. The 0.0008% probability I cited above is based on the generally acknowledged fact that an NFL team will win a one score game about 50% of the time. When Urban Meyer was at Ohio St., he had a more talented team at least 95% of the time and won an unusually high share of close games (nearly 5 out of 6). Even the most ardent Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes fan would likely admit that their talent advantage is not as large as the one enjoyed by a mega college football program, but if we adjust the likelihood of a win from 50-50 to 83-17, you STILL arrive at a 95.2% probability that the streak will not occur. Bottom line: Kansas City has been at least a little lucky to achieve this streak and should not be treated as if they possess some mystical, impossible to explain winning power.
5) What about the officials? No one wants to talk about this but we've seen the apparent preferential treatment of the Chiefs too long to ignore the question. It's been widely cited that the Chiefs don't actually have much if any preferential treatment from the zebras, but the most comprehensive review of the issue I've ever read found otherwise. Simply put, there seems to be a subconscious bias towards superstar QBs from the officials (no surprise there), and this is unfortunately a storyline to watch.
BOTTOM LINE AND PREDICTION. I still believe that the final analysis from two years ago holds firm; if the Birds win the turnover battle and avoid the crushing pro-KC officiating blunder, they will win. Simply put, their best is better than the Chiefs' best. Philly will be an underdog once again and that's always been a good place to be for them. Don't get too high or low if one team takes charge early; both of these QBs have a long track record of double digit comebacks over their careers. I do think this game will be relatively low scoring (certainly compared to the last Super Bowl these teams played), as both defenses are rock solid and both offenses can be plodding at times. Turnovers become even more critical in that scenario, as does ball control. Thankfully Philly has been elite in those measures.
KC wins IF: their patchwork OL holds together and they can break tackles. Their run defense is solid and will be critical to their success as well.
Philly wins IF: they do not turn the ball over and get fair treatment from the officials.
Philly wins big IF: their pass rush takes to the Superdome turf better than the sloppy field in Phoenix. Jalen will need to do a good job reading the exotic looks and blitzes that Spagnuolo will throw his way. If the Birds are healthy in the trenches, they will control the game from there.
I think this game will be competitive and low scoring. Philly will take the lead, give it up, and retake it at the very end after a long drive that wears out the KC defense. Eagles win, something like 24-21 sounds about right.
FLY EAGLES FLY!
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